libera/##covid-19/ Thursday, 2023-01-12

BrainstormNew from r/Science: science: Music listeners report lower stress, better mood amid COVID lockdowns → https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/109hwji/music_listeners_report_lower_stress_better_mood/00:19
BrainstormNew from StatNews: For most mild infections, long Covid symptoms clear after a year, large study finds: A new study analyzing nearly 2 million patient records in Israel concludes that for most people, the troubling symptoms that persist after a mild Covid infection fade [... want %more?] → https://www.statnews.com/2023/01/11/mild-infections-long-covid-symptoms-clear-after-a-year-large-study/00:39
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): 3. The vaccinated individuals did better: less dyspnea and more likeness to controls. 4. Children had more Strep throat & conjunctivitis5. The retrospective design w/reliance only on electronic records confounds the [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/161331989392304128000:49
BrainstormUpdates for Canada: +1344 cases, +28 deaths since 6 hours ago02:01
BrainstormUpdates for Zambia: +349 cases, +1 deaths since a day ago — United Kingdom: +1 deaths since 5 days ago04:05
LjL<Brainstorm> New from Euractiv: Pfizer officials could be excluded from the European Parliament: The European Parliament's COVI committee on Thursday (11 January) approved a proposal to ban Pfizer officials from the European Parliament, following the company's lack of [... want %more?] → https://www.euractiv.com/section/health-consumers/news/pfizer-officials-could-be-excluded-from-the-european-parliament/04:16
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: COVID in California: Expert on XBB.1.5 variant says, ‘It’s not mild’ → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/109lwuf/covid_in_california_expert_on_xbb15_variant_says/05:03
BrainstormUpdates for Germany: +19379 cases, +181 deaths since 23 hours ago — Pakistan: +26 cases since a day ago05:08
BrainstormNew from r/COVID19: COVID19: Anyone develop pulmonary hypertension after covid? → https://old.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/109q290/anyone_develop_pulmonary_hypertension_after_covid/05:23
BrainstormUpdates for Texas, United States: +30396 cases, +126 deaths since 23 hours ago — Tokyo, Japan: +16772 cases, +31 deaths since 23 hours ago — Aichi, Japan: +15918 cases since 23 hours ago — Osaka, Japan: +14024 cases, +26 deaths since 23 hours ago07:00
-Bridgestorm- 🌖 Temblor? Sismo? Earthquake? Maybe strong tremor, registered by alomax, with 45 reports, 11 early, possibly occurred 5 minutes ago (06:19:08 UTC), during a gibbous moon night, Salamanca, Chile (-31.92, -71.04) ± 131 km, ↓2 km likely felt 360 km away (Twitter)07:24
-Bridgestorm- ⭕ Temblor! Sismo! Earthquake! 6.3 M tremor, registered by EMSC,GEOFON,alomax, with 48 reports, 21 early, occurred 7 minutes ago (06:19:10 UTC), during a gibbous moon night, Ovalle, Chile (-30.56, -71.51) ± 5 km, ↓3 km likely felt 450 km away (in Coquimbo, La Serena, Ovalle…) by 485700 people (www.seismicportal.eu)07:26
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): The COVID-19 immunology masterclass enters its third yearThe COVID-19 job is not finished,  but is becoming one of many to compete with limited and highly competitive research funding.@Daltmann10   nature.com/articles/s4159… → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/161343632743297843208:27
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): Yes imprinting or original antigenic sin is real. It does happen, we can see and measure it. But, we also see continuous good responses, protection, modest changes in T cell epitopes, and selection of new B cells and antibodies. Clinically this is not concerning. → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/161343928545726054408:37
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): Long covid outcomes at one year after mild SARS-CoV-2 infection: nationwide cohort study1 913 234 Maccabi Healthcare Services members of all ages who did a polymerase chain reaction test for SARS-CoV-2 between 1 March 2020 and 1 October 2021.bmj.com/content/380/bm… → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/161344169533652172908:47
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): In unvaccinated individuals, most symptoms improve over time: In one year in most, but not in all, people there is good, but incomplete, recovery. pic.twitter.com/NTWBP51HL4 → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/161344433036630835708:57
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | January 12, 2023: Please refer to our Wiki for more information on COVID-19 and our sub. You can find answers to frequently asked questions in our FAQ , where there is valuable information such as our: → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/109u2cr/daily_discussion_thread_january_12_2023/09:06
BrainstormNew from Il Sole 24 Ore: (translated) More infections, not more serious cases and the vaccine shield:  that's why Kraken shouldn't be scary: According to WHO, the new Omicron subvariant does not carry any mutations known to be associated with a [... want %more?] → https://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/piu-contagi-non-casi-piu-gravi-e-scudo-vaccini-ecco-perche-kraken-non-deve-fare-paura-AEWW16VC10:14
BrainstormNew from r/COVID19: COVID19: Prior SARS-CoV-2 Infection and COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness against Outpatient Illness during Widespread Circulation of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant → https://old.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/109vbnq/prior_sarscov2_infection_and_covid19_vaccine/10:24
BrainstormNew from r/COVID19: COVID19: Vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 Delta and Omicron infection and infectiousness within households in the Netherlands between July 2021 and August 2022. → https://old.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/109veqx/vaccine_effectiveness_against_sarscov2_delta_and/10:34
BrainstormNew from StatNews: XB what? BQ huh? Do you need to keep up with Omicron’s ever-expanding offspring?: Every few months, we’re warned that the Omicron variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus has spawned another subvariant. Some experts wonder how useful these discussions are. → https://www.statnews.com/2023/01/12/covid19-do-you-need-to-keep-up-with-omicrons-ever-expanding-offspring/10:44
BrainstormNew from StatNews: STAT+: BioNTech CEO lays out vision for how mRNA and AI can power personalized medicine: With the acquisition of machine learning firm InstaDeep, BioNTech is betting that AI will play a key role in the future of mRNA medicines. → https://www.statnews.com/2023/01/12/biontech-ceo-personalized-medicine/10:54
BrainstormUpdates for Russia: +4675 cases, +48 deaths since 20 hours ago11:03
BrainstormNew from Il Sole 24 Ore: (translated) Drug shortage alarm: a rush to Covid-flu treatments and now there is the risk of hoarding: There is the rush to the pharmacy to buy treatment for Covid and the flu. But raw materials that are increasingly difficult to [... want %more?] → https://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/allarme-carenza-farmaci-e-corsa-cure-covid-influenza-e-ora-c-e-rischio-incetta-AE7s51VC11:13
BrainstormNew from EMA: What's new: Event: Joint EMA-FDA workshop: Efficacy of monoclonal antibodies in the context of rapidly evolving SARS-CoV-2 variants, Online, 13:00 - 17:00 Amsterdam time (CET), from 15/12/2022 to 15/12/2022 → https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/events/joint-ema-fda-workshop-efficacy-monoclonal-antibodies-context-rapidly-evolving-sars-cov-2-variants11:44
BrainstormNew from BMJ: After testing times, Brazil is back: The return of Luís Inácio Lula da Silva as president represents an opportunity for Brazil to rebuild its public health system (SUS) and resume its leadership in global health, relaunching cooperation with the global south. However, President Lula will face even greater [... want %more?] → http://www.bmj.com/content/380/bmj.p48.short12:03
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): nCoV: Global COVID Cases For 12JAN22 → https://old.reddit.com/r/nCoV/comments/109x7lx/global_covid_cases_for_12jan22/12:23
BrainstormNew from r/COVID19: COVID19: Long covid outcomes at one year after mild SARS-CoV-2 infection: nationwide cohort study → https://old.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/109xb1m/long_covid_outcomes_at_one_year_after_mild/12:33
BrainstormNew from r/COVID19: COVID19: Challenges in harnessing shared within-host SARS-CoV-2 variation for transmission inference → https://old.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/109y12x/challenges_in_harnessing_shared_withinhost/13:12
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: The doctor won’t see you now: Covid winters are making long hospital waits the new normal → https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV/comments/109ycve/the_doctor_wont_see_you_now_covid_winters_are/13:31
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Dr Emma Hodcroft (@firefoxx66): Pleased to be in Hasselt for the #ESCAPEConsortium kick-off! ESCAPE is a European initiative for #pandemic #preparedness to improve our ability to more quickly detect & react to future pathogen threats.   From @ISPMBern & #Switzerland I'm here with [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/firefoxx66/status/161351620389677056113:51
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: David Gorski, MD, PhD (@gorskon): Antivax narratives never change. A decade ago, antivaxxers were saying exactly same thing about vaccines and autism, building a straw man argument about why the science didn't support a correlation between vaccines and autism (and now vaccines and death). youtu.be/hZZFnNwdgqQ → https://twitter.com/gorskon/status/161352658910225203814:41
BrainstormNew from BMJ Open: Associations between HIV status and self-reported hypertension in a high HIV prevalence sub-Saharan African population: a cross-sectional study: Objectives This study examined whether HIV status and antiretroviral therapy (ART) exposure were associated with self-reported hypertension in Zimbabwe. [... want %more?] → http://bmjopen.bmj.com/cgi/content/short/13/1/e06732715:11
BrainstormNew from EMA: What's new: Medicine: Human medicines European public assessment report (EPAR): Xevudy, sotrovimab, COVID-19 virus infection, Date of authorisation: 17/12/2021, Revision: 7, Status: Authorised → https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/medicines/human/EPAR/xevudy15:31
BrainstormNew from r/COVID19: COVID19: Impact of antigenic evolution and original antigenic sin on SARS-CoV-2 immunity → https://old.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/10a244d/impact_of_antigenic_evolution_and_original/16:31
BrainstormNew from New Scientist: Vaginal swabs could be used to predict likelihood of preterm births: We often don't know the causes of preterm birth - but analysing metabolic substances in the vaginal microbiome may be a way to predict the risk of premature labour → https://www.newscientist.com/article/2354621-vaginal-swabs-could-be-used-to-predict-likelihood-of-preterm-births/17:22
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Good news: In the Northeast where the XBB.1.5 variant now accounts for >75% cases, hospital admissions among seniors have mostly started to declinenytimes.com/interactive/20… pic.twitter.com/85pPdIa63q → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/161358068110342963218:01
LjL-MatrixAnybody happen to know of an inexpensive (and I really do mean inexpensive) device/way to do whole-day monitoring of body temperature? Apparently the Apple Watch attempts it by having two thermometers, one near the skin and one away from it, to correct for ambient temperature. Imagine something like that but 1/50th of the price of an Apple Watch :p18:03
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): The problem of reduced T-cell immune response (CD4+) for people age 65+ to Covid vaccinationnature.com/articles/s4358… @NatureAging pic.twitter.com/2djizJJc8P → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/161358410782042931418:20
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): mRNA vaccine encoding hemagglutinin antigens from all 20 known influenza A virus subtypes and B virus lineages protected mice and ferrets from a wide range of matched and mismatched virus strains. → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/161358645463400859018:30
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): A good distribution of mainland China, in agreement with their data sets; 61 passengers who tested positive for the virus revealed Omicron variants, notably sub-lineages BA.5.2, BF.7, and BQ.1.1 (each with additional mutations), in line with data released from [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/161359496881098752119:00
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): Serum spike-specific IgG concentrations waned over 8 months following a third vaccine dose. Mucosal IgA after previous SARS-CoV-2 infection, but without omicron breakthrough infection, remained above the amount associated to 65% protection over the 8-month study [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/161359685147056537819:11
BrainstormNew from Contagion Live: Males Found to be More Susceptible to Respiratory Bacterial Infections: A 2-year retrospective study looking at patients admitted to the ICU showed that the number of intubated males infected with Acinetobacter baumannii  (AB) was double the [... want %more?] → https://www.contagionlive.com/view/males-found-to-be-more-susceptible-to-respiratory-bacterial-infections19:50
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Pukkila-Worley Lab (@RPWLab): Incredible pleasure to host @VirusesImmunity for a virtual @UMass_Medicine Grand Rounds today, together with @FitzgeraldKate .  A true privilege to learn from Dr. Iwasaki about the "Immunology of Long Covid" → https://twitter.com/RPWLab/status/161360441870817689719:59
BrainstormUpdates for United Kingdom: +912 deaths since 15 hours ago — Canada: +43 deaths since 21 hours ago20:05
BrainstormNew from University of Washington: Meet the 2022-2023 DGH Research Assistants and Fellows: Each year the UW Department of Global Health is able to provide partial to full funding to recruit top applicants. In addition to financial support, some recipients also receive [... want %more?] → https://globalhealth.washington.edu/news/2023/1/12/meet-2022-2023-dgh-research-assistants-and-fellows20:09
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): Immunology 101But serious, and the reason for more vaccine dosages and still severe disease and death for some.Impaired CD4+ T cell response in older adults is associated with reduced immunogenicity and reactogenicity of mRNA COVID-19 vaccination nature.com/articles/s4358… → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/161363140845024463721:27
* LjL-Matrix uploaded an image: (145KiB) < https://libera.ems.host/_matrix/media/v3/download/matrix.org/TCQpxYcXYtjvorkFjYSstOXl/Screenshot_20230112-220845_Corona-Warn-Companion.png >22:08
LjL-MatrixHow come I still get the usual mountain of keys even though the whole notification exposure system should have been dismantled with the new year?22:09
LjL-MatrixAlso Immuni doesn't show any sign of having been deactivated when I run it, despite https://www.immuni.italia.it/22:18
LjL-MatrixI guess it works because I'm using the microG framework, but still, it seems weird.22:19
TuvixI really lost faith in these kinds of initiatives to work as intended with the multiple major issues in the apps that were available in my area. During the first year of COVID I lived in one place and worked in a US state across the border, each with their "own" apps (it was unclear if the BT signaling worked between them.) Worse, when I finally did have a positive RAT, there was no way to indicate it22:25
Tuvixwithout going to a formal healthcare provider22:25
TuvixOn top of all that, the privacy protection for the Google+Apple joint technical work also meant that researchers had basically zero insight into how widely-deployed or used the apps were, and that meant effectively no meaningful improvements could be made.22:26
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): "These findings highlight the key role of antigen presentation at the mucosa and support a protective effect of mucosal immunity for up to 8 months"thelancet.com/journals/lanin…What nasal vaccines could simulate to achieve durable mucosal immunity pic.twitter.com/lZv2BqyXh4 → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/161364589597913088022:26
LjLTuvix, it was pretty useless here as well. Can easily be confirmed by looking at the publicly released numbers on the neat dashboard in Italy, and then in Germany22:31
LjLTuvix, uh, we know how many downloads each app had, and on Play devices it is at least in principle possible to know how many active installs. In the Italian app, as long as SafetyNet was green, you'd also send back stats on how many encounter notifications you'd received.22:33
LjLhttps://www.immuni.italia.it/dashboard.html   https://www.coronawarn.app/en/analysis/   wouldn't say there's utter lack of data22:33
LjLit's just that the data, at least ours, is depressing ;(22:34
TuvixI forget the specifics now, but the reporting from the US-implementation was a lot more grim in terms of what the app vendors could see (which was basically nothing.)22:35
TuvixIt didn't help that between poor testing and even worse reporting of positive cases the app was pretty much worthless anyway.22:35
TuvixIt didn't matter if the app did a great job of "pinging" nearby users with the rotating IDs and what-not if users didn't bother to treat the threat seriously.22:35
LjLTuvix, that's probably if the state choose to *not* make its own personalized app (still using the framework) and instead relied on the "templates" that Google and Apple started to provide at some point precisely because, unlike in the EU, it seemed that in the US no state could be bothered to create an app for the framework...22:36
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): They build a pseudo virus, using a polyprotein with VSVg to gain cell entry, VSV polymerase and SARS-CoV-2 3CLpro. SARS-CoV-2 3CLpro is essential otherwise is the polyprotein not cut and there is no replication. → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/161365038256738713622:36
LjLTuvix, indeed the apps were deployed at a point where being a contact of a known positive person was no longer grounds for quarantine, at least practically22:37
TuvixOh, don't even get me started on the near-worthless so-called "lockdowns" here. They were in practice nothing more than suggestions and guidance.22:37
LjLthat alone certainly made them less than useful, but other causes also contributed (such as, like you say, very spotty ability to actually register yourself as positive)22:37
LjLone person who may or may not be slightly paranoid believes that this was mostly just a test by Google and Apple of the mesh network they intend to deploy (and Apple has already mostly deployed) via UWB, which is much more precise than Bluetooth wrt distance, direction and wall presence, and which Apple uses for their AirTags, and for their iPhones, which incidentally, keep all their radios on by default even when they're turned off, and are used as proxy-finders22:39
LjLfor the airtags, all going through a proprietary protocol to Apple22:39
TuvixIt mostly relied on people to do the right thing. Granted some companies that were able to pivot did so more willingly, but I also so plenty of businesses that were "complying." Like the supper club that offered "takeout-only." And you could order a drink while you waited for your "to go" food. And, you know, and second. While you opened your to-go container. At the bar. Without your masks. Etc.22:40
LjLThese charades happened here as well, but when we were under actual *lockdown*, those places were simply closed or strictly take-away (no drinking, because no entering)22:41
TuvixYea, I think the difference was some plausable enforcement.22:41
LjLbut it's not like our "actual lockdown" lasted all that long, although we did keep some mandatory measures longer than other countries, and in general the EU did so more than the US22:41
TuvixNot that it was widespread, but enough that businesses wouldn't risk running afoul of the rules. Here there was no reason to comply as you'd suffer no damage by doing so, and gain more business.22:42
LjLour "actual lockdown" happened in 2020 when we were the first western country hit and got scared shitless22:42
LjLthat must be remembered in perspective22:42
LjLno ventilators, masks being intercepted by other countries...22:42
LjLI still have a "recreational" Chinese oxygen concentrator tucked away in a corner22:43
TuvixI do remember in mid-2020 I had to drive downtown in the nearby metro and it was a ghost town (most businesses there are either able to do 95%+ remote or service-style businesses that catered to those professionals.)22:43
LjLit was €300. that's not an amount of money i spend lightly. but i was scared.22:43
TuvixAt what would have been rush-hour in that metro, I was leaving back for home and there were no busses, no people in the streets; very unusual, but it's bounced mostly back, at least to 80% or more of what it used to be.22:44
LjLI remember one specific "ghost town" episode, I really didn't go out much during the lockdown (well, I wasn't meant to! technically even that one time was a violation, but I was curious). It was indeed eerie. But that didn't last very long.22:44
LjLThere were only trams breaking the silence, as public transport was still operational, but they were all empty22:45
TuvixRight, and the supper-club I mentioned really was doing anything they could to keep the business. Sure, they were breaking the rules locally as well (with zero harm, and they knew that) but that also set the stage for the owners to sell a year later (and the new managment has just destroyed the business they had, sadly.)22:45
LjLand at 6pm or 8pm or whenever it was, everyone would go on balconies and clap, as a supposed way to show solidarity22:45
TuvixErm, zero harm to them. Of course, you could claim no harm to the guests either who would surely be taking such risks as indoor dining without any mitigation elsewhere if not there.22:46
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): Then they added Nirmatrelvir (alone) and created enormous selection pressure for any virion to survive and to mutate SARS-CoV-2 3CLpro. Of course, eventually you will get mutants that have mutated to have a functional SARS-CoV-2 3CLpro in the preence of Nirmatrelvir. → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/161365038414847181522:46
LjLunfortunately yes a lot of places serving food and drink closed down or changed management here since 202022:46
AFI[m]if the government would stop pussyfooting around with antivaxers and make them get the damn jab none of this would be an issue. JUST SAYIN22:46
LjLAFI[m], that is just not true22:46
LjLthe vaccine isn't a miracle22:46
TuvixIt's been far too late for that once we let the varients spread due to travel cross-country about 2 years back, yea.22:47
TuvixVaccination prevents most cases of severe disease or hospitalization/death, but it does rather little to prevent a positive case from passing it on.22:47
LjLI know plenty of people who got their vaccine(s), up to 4 doses, and got COVID anyway. that's common knowledge by now, it may still reduce transmission by a small amount, but, by a small amount.22:48
TuvixThat's especially true since you can become contagious before you even feel symptoms (and thus know to isolate even if you're trying hard to do the right thing at all times.)22:48
LjLso the vaccine helps but it wouldn't magically make the whole situation "end" if everyone took it22:48
LjLand in this country, the vast majority took it. repeatedly.22:48
AFI[m]so what makes it end then22:49
AFI[m]next thing you guys are going to say it cause blood clots. Smh22:50
TuvixAt this point, nothing. The only real end-game is slowly improving treatments for symptoms and incremental progress to abate the serious cases.22:50
LjLAFI[m], nothing makes it end.22:50
LjLwake up.22:50
LjLit's not just "ending", ever.22:50
LjLthis is very old news.22:50
LjLblood clots are caused by COVID much more than they are by the vaccines, if at all.22:51
TuvixSee also: the common cold, influenza, etc.22:51
LjLwe aren't anti-vax in this channel.22:51
LjLit's you who are merely being unrealistic.22:51
AFI[m]I wasn't trying to call you antivaxer srry22:51
AFI[m]does the vaccine stop the blood clots from covid??22:52
TuvixWe've got mitigations for things like the flu, but keep in mind a not-insignificant die from that annually too (and we've had far more decades to deal with that problem.) COVID in the US is about 4-to-10 times worse than the flu. That is to say that even at the "best" since the COVID-19 pandemic started, we're basically experiencing a "flu that never stops" in terms of death.22:52
Tuvix(and it's worse during surges, like the current new variant surge)22:52
LjLAFI[m], the vaccines reduces severe outcomes of COVID, so it seems intuitively plausible that it helps against the blood clots from COVID, however i don't know of any study showing it *stops* them.22:53
LjLhere is a view of vaccine uptake and effect in Italy, although not all of it actually gets translated, and it takes a bit of studying to make sense of it https://lab24-ilsole24ore-com.translate.goog/numeri-vaccini-italia-mondo/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp#22:54
LjLyou can see graphs comparing the deaths, ICU admissions, hospital admissions of unvaccinated people vs vaccinated to various degrees.22:55
LjLsome of it will probably surprise you (and me, although it's explainable)22:55
AFI[m]why don't we just have quarantine facilities for the infected then so it cannot spread and will die out22:56
TuvixChina tried that; we can see how that doesn't work in practice.22:56
AFI[m]it's because they dropped their restrictions22:56
TuvixTo a point, Australia tried it too, and in a way, it backfired because there was lower vaccination uptake, and then that was a problem when Omicron ran through a somewhat larger-than-typical (for a 1st world country anyway) population.22:56
LjLAFI[m], they did, in countries that tried hard to stop it.22:56
AFI[m]it WAS working22:57
LjLit's too late now, it wouldn't work anymore.22:57
LjLit wasn't working. people were partly protesting the futility of continuing the drastic measures even when outbreaks kept happening all over the place.22:57
LjLit was working initially.22:57
TuvixThe problem is that you can't sustain that forever. China paid a huge price in economic impact. Australia less so, but it hit some sectors hard there as well, and it wasn't viable long-term.22:57
LjLI'd say they stuck with it longer-term than I would have guessed.22:58
LjLAll of them, Australia, NZ, China22:58
LjLMaybe if every single country had done the same, *early*, we would be in a different place now. Although I'm not even sure.22:58
AFI[m]so what's the best path forward, realistically then?22:58
TuvixBetter funding public-health would be a good start.22:58
TuvixBut that's not exactly been what's happened as a result. Humans are good at forgetting recent history when it's convenient; we've got plenty else to fet about don't we, between a fairly big military conflict, cost of living, and political issues in multiple major countries.22:59
Tuvixfret about*23:00
LjLcontinue vaccinations, with updated vaccines whenever feasible; wear good masks whenever feasible; sanitize or replace the air indoors as often as possible, and invest in systems to do so (important!); sequence a lot of virus (and instead sequencing has gone down by 90%!) to know early what the next threatening variant will be, and develop a vaccine for it early; continue researching (too little money is being spent in that!) vaccines that may provide actual23:00
LjLimmunity, such as intranasal vaccines, and pan-sarbecovirus vaccines23:00
LjLand also, realistically, accept that many will continue dying, because our past choices have an impact on the present and future, and we can't go back and change them.23:00
LjL(dying, getting long COVID, and so on)23:00
LjLi find it difficult to accept it and i am still scared, but i also rationally understand the above.23:01
LjLTuvix, yeah talk about starting an almost-world-war during a situation like this. aren't we just brilliant.23:02
LjLstrengthen public health should certainly be a measure to invest in also, i agree. don't take what i said as exhaustive, because i have a bad memory. there are many good things that can be done. just none of them will "end" it.23:02
AFI[m]I thought you at least agreed that the vaccine drastically reduce death23:04
TuvixI've likely been exposed multiple times by now, but only one I caught on a RAT where I tested positive. And yes, I credit being vaccinated & boosted (ie: 3x mRNA doses by then) with the result of only moderate symptoms.23:04
AFI[m]why do we care if the conspiracy theorist die off23:04
TuvixI still felt like absolute crap for a full day, but had I not been vaccinated, it would likely have been much worse.23:05
TuvixIt's not just the unvaccinated that are dying though. It's a larger portion of those at-risk due to underlying conditions, or those that don't see the same value from the vaccines (which overlap with the at-risk groups too.)23:06
AFI[m]but I thought the at risk we're the ones in danger of covid23:07
TuvixThat's what immunologists mean by "herd immunity" -- it's not (as sometimes commonly believed) some magic number when we vaccinate enough and this "goes away", but it's a level of general immune-protection that keeps those who *cannot* be protected naturally23:07
TuvixIf you're of average-to-decent health, not elderly, and have no other additional risk-factors, you're in less danger than people who fit one or more of those categories.23:07
AFI[m]covid is mostly a risk for at risk people so if the vaccine doesn't stop spread and only reduces risk like you allege wtf does it do if it doesn't work for the at risk23:08
AFI[m]I don't understand you23:09
TuvixIt still helps, but not as much. That's how statistics work.23:09
AFI[m]but it doesn't help the ones who need it???23:09
TuvixIf you're poor and on the street, giving you $100 doesn't fix the problem. It might buy you some meals for a week and a couple new articiles of clothing.23:09
TuvixThink of being at-risk like being homeless. Ultimatly it doens't matter how many tiny handouts you get: what you need is a real place to live and some economic opportunity.23:10
Tuvix(except for the immuno-compromized, that's not going to happen. Think someone with an organ transplant, or on life-long immuno-suppressive drugs they need to live.)23:10
AFI[m]ok now that I think of it explain the vaccine mandates then if it doesn't stop transmission23:12
TuvixI know someone whose child of elementry-school age had a classmate die of COVID. The kid was 7, and unvaccinated. While not an "at-risk" group, you can still experience serious symptoms. All vaccination does is give you better odds, statistically speaking.23:12
TuvixWell, mandates are a tough area. How do you do that equitablly? Where's the balance between personal choice and accountability? Do some sectors like public healthcare workers need different rules (becuase if *they* choose to take extra risks, they're also putting their patients at risk of infection and death.)23:13
AFI[m]I thought children and elderly were at risk23:13
TuvixI'd suggest you look at charts breaking down risk of death or serious complications by both age and vaccination status.23:14
AFI[m]if the vaccine doesn't stop the spread tho they're not putting patients at risk by not getting it??23:14
TuvixYou seem to be a bit lacking on some basic aggregate data here if you're looking for such elementary information. OWID has some good charts here.23:14
TuvixStop is different than reduce the odds of getting it, and reducing the time you're contagious.23:15
AFI[m]I don't understand that stuff I'm not a doctor23:15
AFI[m]So it reduces transmission?23:15
TuvixOverall, yes.23:16
AFI[m]that's why I'm taking to you guys23:16
AFI[m]I can't make sense of it23:16
TuvixIt'll reduce your viral load, and broadly-speaking, reduce how long you're likely to remain contagious.23:16
TuvixIt doesn't mean you *won't* get infected, nor does it mean you *won't* pass it on to others, but it will reduce the odds of both (and the severity of them as well.)23:17
AFI[m]reduce by how much23:17
AFI[m]because this goes back to what I said originally they should just enforce the vaccine and it will reduce the spread23:18
TuvixSure, and if you took every gun out of private-citizens hands it would reduce gun deaths/violence too. But that's also not practical.23:19
AFI[m]even if it doesn't stop it23:19
AFI[m]why isn't banning guns practical?23:19
TuvixAs to the stats, OWID has a good primer on death and COVID. They have charts for other metrics (like hospitalization) too: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths-by-vaccination23:19
AFI[m]every where else does23:20
AFI[m]what's so hard about it23:20
TuvixFeel free to run for office over here if you've got it all figured out.23:20
LjL-Matrix<AFI[m]> "why do we care if the conspiracy..." <- We care if anyone dies off. Please read the room charter from the topic links before saying things like that please.23:21
LjL-Matrix<AFI[m]> "I don't understand that stuff I..." <- We aren't doctors either but we've gotten a lot of information and tried our best to understand it. Now you're machine-gunning questions without seemingly having done that and it makes it both difficult and frustrating to answer.23:24
LjL-MatrixWith current variant, the actual protection *against spreading it* is really nor very large at all. In my country people over 50 (or 60?) have had a vaccine mandate for a while, but guess what, that didn't work magic either.23:26
LjL-MatrixMandates also would have made a lot more sense during and before Delta (especially before) than after. But a lot of things have been implemented only when it was too late.23:27
LjL-MatrixAnd don't forget that statistically we can conclude that vaccines saved very many lives. Would they save even more if the people who refuse to take them took them? Probably, but it wouldn't *qualitatively* change the problem.23:29
AFI[m]sorry I deleted it. I'm not trying to machine gun questions I'm just a bit emotional because you guys are sounding like my misinformation peddling family members I blocked on my facebook I'm just trying to make sense of it23:32
AFI[m]I don't mean to come off as antagonistic or anything23:32
LjL-MatrixIf you can't distinguish between misinformation peddling and the things we're saying, honestly that means you need to do your homework better. Being able to spot "actual" misinformation is not a magical ability you can have without 1) pervasive critical thinking and 2) some actual knowledge about the topic at hand, even if you aren't a doctor.23:35
AFI[m]but that's almost verbatim what they said23:37
LjL-MatrixLook at the Zotero page, look how many studies I've put into it. I haven't understood everything they said, honestly I haven't even read many of them beyond the abstract. But I've read the abstract, I've read commentary about them from people on Twitter (where much of the actual medical community lies, sadly, considering current state), I've discussed them here where people have been able to point out less obvious things to me... That's how23:37
LjL-MatrixI can *sometimes* spot misinformation.23:37
TuvixThen don't throw up your hands and make generalizations. Use a variety of resources and read quite a bit. You asked earlier about vaccination and outcomes; did you use some of the resoruces I suggested (and even linked) yet? Did you read some of the backgorund there? Check out the visual-charts?23:38
TuvixIf you did, what did you learn? Did you draw any initial conclustions? What gaps do you feel you still have after reading that?23:38
AFI[m]no not yet23:38
LjL-MatrixAFI[m]: Well, if you think THAT, those two points, are not true, then you are negating my entire instruction from elementary school onwards, and we probably have little ability to share opinions. Have you considered that misinformation peddlers may often use truth to make it harder to tell what they really are doing? In this case, basic, obvious truth that should be taught like with a drill  hammer to every primary school student.23:39
LjL-MatrixUnderstanding things is hard, you can't just hope to see if two short extremely general points match the ones the people you consider misinformation peddlers use, and from that, make deductions. Shortcuts like that just won't work very well.23:40
LjL-MatrixIf you don't like misinformation peddlers, then try to peddle actual information. Which is hard.23:41
AFI[m]I'm not trying to be stupid my head is so foggy lately the world seems so topsy turvy23:41
AFI[m]I'll just shut up23:43
LjLAFI[m], shut up if that seems best for the time being, and read what gets posted (unfortunately it's mostly automatic bot posts these days, as actual discussions are rare as people are probably drained up after three years of this), and if you find something either interesting or dubious delve deeper, and check my Zotero (shameless plug but really, there's a lot of stuff in it...) for related papers or articles. Or don't shut up but simply slow down, try to get23:55
LjLone aspect of the situation before skipping right away to another aspects — sure, they are related, but we cannot really reason or discuss if we don't compartimentalize a bit at first, and merge back only later23:55

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