libera/##covid-19/ Wednesday, 2021-09-15

grysso efficiency weakens from 90%+ to about 60% after six months00:02
gryswhat then?00:02
gryswhat about the next six months after00:02
grysflu shot is yearly, not biyearly. would be nice if the vaccination behaved and sticked itself into a yearly cycle00:02
lastshellahh thanks for the archive00:03
BrainstormNew from NPR: An Epidemiologist Says At-Home Testing Is Key To Stopping COVID: Harvard epidemiologist Michael Mina wants to increase availability of the at-home rapid tests the Biden administration is promoting. But he warns of a shortage without market pressure. → https://is.gd/kWjAq600:04
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Contaminants found in Pfizer vaccine in cities near Tokyo, Osaka → https://is.gd/m3RY6200:15
nixonixwith pfizer and circulating neutralizing abs 4x higher after 3rd than after 2nd, if the infection would be just about that, it would give around 4.5 months more time after the 3rd, compared to 2nd (3 weeks between 1st and 2nd)00:17
nixonixmeaning, prob longer interval between 3rd and 4th. or maybe the same, but better protection that time00:18
nixonixtomorrow there should be new israel data00:19
nixonix.title https://twitter.com/MarkPlackett1/status/143759649411099852900:21
Brainstormnixonix, the URL could not be loaded00:21
nixonix.title00:21
Brainstormnixonix: From is.gd: Contaminants found in Pfizer vaccine in cities near Tokyo, Osaka : worldnews00:21
nixonixno!00:22
nixonix.title00:22
Brainstormnixonix: From is.gd: Contaminants found in Pfizer vaccine in cities near Tokyo, Osaka : worldnews00:22
nixonix.title https://twitter.com/MarkPlackett1/status/143759649411099852900:22
Brainstormnixonix: From twitter.com: 🌱💧Mark Plackett ♻ (@MarkPlackett1): "Astrazeneca ChAdOx1 ( A tale of two vaccines IMO) #covid19 https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33617777/ Efficacy Standard Dose SD/SD 63% 1/" | nitter00:22
LjLwait, weren't the contaminants in Japan in Moderna last time? now in Pfizer too? did Japan pay for the B-grade product?00:36
LjLor do they actually monitor them better00:36
BrainstormNew from The Lancet (Online): [Articles] Daily testing for contacts of individuals with SARS-CoV-2 infection and attendance and SARS-CoV-2 transmission in English secondary schools and colleges: an open-label, cluster-randomised trial: Daily contact testing of school-based contacts was non-inferior to self-isolation for control of COVID-19 [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/g4CQbq00:36
nixonixi remember only one, i think pfizer (apparently from the cap and mishandling). what they did with those vaxes then?00:37
nixonixoh this is a new one00:38
nixonixcap again?00:38
nixonixand the same show...00:38
nixonix.title https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2021/09/d85bab0a5c9f-contaminants-found-in-pfizer-vaccine-in-2-cities-near-tokyo.html00:38
Brainstormnixonix: From english.kyodonews.net: Contaminants found in Pfizer vaccine in cities near Tokyo, Osaka00:38
nixonixwell, whatever was the truth from the first time. google found "Contaminants were seen in 39 unopened vials at eight vaccination" (in august, moderna)00:40
nixonixdirect link to one of the two new ones with interesting stuff: https://khub.net/documents/135939561/338928724/Vaccine+effectiveness+and+duration+of+protection+of+covid+vaccines+against+mild+and+severe+COVID-19+in+the+UK.pdf/10dcd99c-0441-0403-dfd8-11ba2c6f580100:50
nixonix.title https://twitter.com/hjelle_brian/status/143748021066061824100:56
Brainstormnixonix: From twitter.com: Brian Hjelle, virologist (@hjelle_brian): "Unless a new branch of viral immunology sprouted recently, any hope for a "nasal vaccine" hinges upon us developing some kind of live-attenuated vax. The [...]00:56
nixonixthey wont do it, as an only vax. needs also decent im vax protection. the same with oral ones (despite ok circulating IgG response, prob not enough or long lasting)00:57
BrainstormNew from Eric Topol: @EricTopol: More, new reassuring data about mRNA vaccine (@BioNTech_Group) neutralization vs Delta plus, Lambda, and other variants of interest 👍https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.09.13.460163v1https://is.gd/GT59Lm00:58
nixonixhe speculated that live attenuated viral-vector vax could work as nasal (live-attenuated sars2 is prob not a great idea)00:58
nixonix"What is reassuring ...? Not takin a vaccine on a daily basis and a booster to boost the booster"01:02
nixonix.title https://www.timesofisrael.com/more-than-10-of-israeli-kids-who-got-virus-now-suffer-from-long-covid-study/01:07
Brainstormnixonix: From www.timesofisrael.com: 11% of Israeli kids who got virus now suffer from 'long COVID' - study | The Times of Israel01:07
nixonixdoesnt look great thinking about chances to avoid some permanent organ damages01:08
dTalboss's son got covid01:10
dTalhe's 16? 17?01:10
dTalfirst night, in hospital. Couldn't breathe.01:11
specingInteresting01:11
dTalMy friend had her first day back at work today after a week's isolation. Clearly completely exhausted.01:12
dTalFolks, this shit is no joke01:12
specingyep01:13
specingThe S in SARS stands for SEVERE01:14
de-factohis son is not vaccinated i guess?01:16
nixonixthose under 18 only recently got 1st doses. under 16, just starting i think (uk)01:17
de-factoimho its not ok to let it burn through the unprotected kids in school01:18
annaa_cytokine storm01:18
nixonixbut uk is planning to start 3rd for all those over 50 soon. i guess they hate kids, but love over 50s01:18
de-factoi hope he gets better soon, at least in hospital he will receive good medical care01:21
BrainstormNew from Eric Topol: @EricTopol: What an outstanding ★ feature on the long history of mRNA vaccines and their future potential, by @ElieDolgin @Nature https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02483-whttps://is.gd/hUyyYo01:29
nixonixan adjuvant could be added in them too. possibly in nanoparticle, and if not, then mrna of additional protein to adjust the immune response01:33
nixonixthe problem is, its fairly recent study what affects memory b-cell maturation, and its probably not well understood. testing how the immunity especially vs severe symptoms lasts, will take a long time01:34
nixonixso its not their top priority to even develop such. maybe it would ruin the market too... not needing boosters for years possibly01:36
nixonixputin is in quarantine. hope its for rona, not because they are planning to attack here again01:39
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: U.S. spent $5.7 billion for treating unvaccinated Covid-19 patients in the last 3 months → https://is.gd/FU48Iu02:13
pwr22<nixonix> "those under 18 only recently got..." <- From next week yeah02:24
gryswhats that?02:25
grysalso is IgG (spike) and Ab (nucleocapsid) being zero sufficient indicator that i dont have immunity02:26
BrainstormNew from Eric Topol: @EricTopol: R to @EricTopol: "Everyone just incrementally added something—including me"—@kkariko Over 3 decades of perseverance to get mRNA in a position to be a platform for the pandemic vaccines,She's a hero of mine, and a Nobel laureate in the future. → https://is.gd/Oafu1503:07
LjLdTal, i second the question, is boss's son vaccinated?03:51
LjLsad either way :(03:52
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: S. Korea to extend loan maturity again for pandemic-hit firms, merchants → https://is.gd/xZNAGJ04:01
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): COVID19: Mild SARS-CoV-2 Illness Is Not Associated with Reinfections and Provides Persistent Spike, Nucleocapsid, and Virus-Neutralizing Antibodies → https://is.gd/ZCvJLl06:44
grys'Reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 was not observed among individuals with mild clinical COVID-19, while infections continued in a group without known prior infection.'06:51
gryshow do i parse this? doesn't a member of the second group, once infected once, automatically become a member of the first group - meaning 'infections continue' doesn't apply to him?06:51
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: As India’s Lethal Covid Wave Neared, Politics Overrode Science | The country’s top science agency tailored its findings to fit Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s optimistic narrative despite a looming crisis, researchers say. → https://is.gd/gNoNAD07:06
jbwncsterhttps://abc11.com/health/raleigh-blocks-jobs-promotions-for-unvaccinated-city-workers/11021257/07:06
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Dutch ditch social distancing, mandate COVID-19 passes → https://is.gd/5ZpInI07:16
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Singapore reports worst daily Covid case tally in more than a year → https://is.gd/71IcCe08:32
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Unwilling to wait for approval, some healthy Americans seek COVID vaccine booster shots → https://is.gd/ASXnXh08:42
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Johnson doubles down on vaccine strategy as his popularity wanes → https://is.gd/5EWGBi08:53
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | September 15, 2021: Please refer to our Wiki for more information on COVID-19 and our sub. You can find answers to frequently asked questions in our FAQ , where there is valuable information such as our: → https://is.gd/BESDCw09:04
thunderhere's an eye opening interview with robert malone (the inventor of mRNA vaccine tech) from earlier today. in short, mandatory vaccination is contrary to both established medical ethics and evidence based medical science. https://youtu.be/iwPKnOhJRYg09:07
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: US army tells troops to get vaccinated soon or face discipline up to possible dismissal → https://is.gd/LwNIBv09:14
BrainstormNew from Politico: Coronavirus: Pfizer to seek US vaccine approval for children between 6 months and 5 years in November → https://is.gd/nTwxbz09:25
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: Covid: Plan B would be triggered by NHS pressure, Sajid Javid says: It comes as government scientists warn of a jump in Covid hospital admissions if rules are not tightened. → https://is.gd/YCSPRi10:19
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): Global COVID Cases For 15SEP21: Summary As Of: 15SEP @ 08:21 GMT Countries 221 + 2 Cases 225,649,707 Deaths 4,645,656 Recovered 202,118,060 Active Cases 18,613,058 Countries reporting new cases: 192 Countries reporting new deaths: 151 Countries reporting increased Active Cases: 82 Countries reporting decreased Active Cases: 108 [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/MMkxmC10:42
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_ITALIA: Caso vaccini: periti pm, 'probabile correlazione con morti' → https://is.gd/iQTI7e10:53
BrainstormNew from EMA: Human medicine assessment reports: (news): Human medicines European public assessment report (EPAR): Vaxzevria (previously COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca), COVID-19 Vaccine (ChAdOx1-S [recombinant]), COVID-19 virus infection, Date of authorisation: 29/01/2021, Revision: 12, Status: Authorised → https://is.gd/rIyUV111:26
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Russia's Sputnik V vaccine shows 97.2% COVID-19 efficacy in Belarus - RDIF → https://is.gd/hBoEiv11:47
BrainstormNew from BMJ: Profiteering from vaccine inequity: nudge pharma towards “doing well by doing good”: I read with interest your editorial about profiteering from vaccine inequity.1 Fortunately the UK government seems to have listened to views about prioritising vaccination of the world ahead of... → https://is.gd/Z5P1M712:42
ublxLjL: from July, a look at the performance of contact tracing apps around the world: https://algorithmwatch.org/en/analysis-digital-contact-tracing-apps-2021/12:56
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: TGA demands Craig Kelly’s party stop distributing ‘seriously misleading’ Covid information → https://is.gd/NOkB6f13:04
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Coronavirus tally: Global cases of COVID-19 near 226 million and Alaska is latest state to ration care. → https://is.gd/ZKRnCE13:26
BrainstormNew from EMA: Human medicine assessment reports: (news): Human medicines European public assessment report (EPAR): Imvanex, smallpox vaccine (Live Modified Vaccinia Virus Ankara), Smallpox Vaccine, Date of authorisation: 31/07/2013, Revision: 19, Status: Authorised → https://is.gd/gePrFw13:37
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Nicki Minaj’s vaccine-skeptic comments criticised, rebutted online → https://is.gd/8LN2Rk14:09
de-facto.title https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.09.13.460185v114:36
Brainstormde-facto: From www.biorxiv.org: Effect of ORF7 of SARS-CoV-2 on the chemotaxis of monocytes and neutrophils in vitro | bioRxiv14:36
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: How Nicki Minaj and swollen testicles became part of a UK coronavirus briefing → https://is.gd/sQW5hX15:05
BrainstormNew from Contagion Live: Pfizer May Apply for FDA Approval of COVID-19 Vaccine for Younger Children in November: In a recent speech, Pfizer’s CFO says it might be a matter of weeks for submitting an application for children 6 months to 5 years old. → https://is.gd/CKTw5815:16
BrainstormNew from NPR: Pfizer Analysis Makes Case For COVID Vaccine Booster: Pfizer says data support its request for Food and Drug Administration approval of a third dose of COVID vaccine about six months after the second dose in people 16 years and older. → https://is.gd/WaQHkd15:27
BrainstormNew from Eric Topol: @EricTopol: The new @PHE_uk data on attrition of protection for both AZ and Pfizer vaccines vs symptomatic infection at 5+ months, across all age groups [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/JsYWQO15:38
BrainstormNew from Eric Topol: @EricTopol: Numb? Don't be. Most (as in ~90% now) of this is preventable.—Over 2,200 deaths yesterday—7-day average over 1,900 our day—Days away from confirmed deaths exceeding 1918 pandemic estimate of 675,000 American lost lives → https://is.gd/YhtX4o16:12
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Zotero / COVID links Group / Top-Level Items: Digital contact tracing apps: do they actually work? A review of early evidence ( https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/UQFUCRRP )16:37
LjLublx, nice16:38
LjLnot nice for italy, but i knew that16:38
ublxnot exactly nice for anyone really, seems like16:39
LjLwell from my cursory look, it's always kinda hard to determine how many of the notified contacts actually end up having the virus16:40
LjLbut if you're Germany or England you've notified a ton of people and so you have at least a fighting chance, if you're Italy you've notified barely anyone16:40
BrainstormNew from https://covid19.specops.network : ljl-covid: Add contact tracing app review → https://is.gd/hSNHWa16:45
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): Covid2019: WHO says Africa will get 30% of COVID vaccines it needs by February → https://is.gd/cMl5z717:08
lastshellInteresting perspective https://youtu.be/WSlW8l7UvuI Israel more vaccinated more cases, India used Ivermectin and less cases is this true ?17:09
LjLindia's case count is widely agreed to be widely underestimated17:09
LjLlike, very17:10
LjLeven the deaths are estimated to be about 4x as many17:10
lastshellbut could be a possibility17:11
lastshellI mean I'm vaccinated not against the ja17:11
lastshelljsut curios to find the cure17:12
lastshellsorry early morning typing sucks for me17:12
LjLi mean, it could be a possibility, but the evidence for ivermectin is basically zero, and using india as evidence for it is completely flowed17:12
LjLthat doesn't make it not-a-possibility, it just doesn't mean much17:13
lastshellok17:13
LjLwhat is true is that i look at Israel and i wonder how a vaccine that was originally supposed to be 95% effective against any type of symptomatic disease is now... you have about half the deaths you'd expect compared to before ;( http://offloop.net/covid19/?default=India;Israel&byPopulation=yes&cumulative=no&smooth=yes which is still half of those people saved, but meh17:15
LjLlastshell, another objection though: ivermectin is a cure, so it could change the number of *deaths*, but how would it possibly change the number of *cases*?17:16
LjLright now, India has few deaths because it has few cases, which is just part of COVID's ups and downs17:16
LjLif a widely-deployed treatment were successful, you'd see many cases but with few deaths17:16
LjL*when* they had many cases, they *also* had comparatively many deaths17:17
LjLcompare the two graphs and you'll see that17:17
lastshellhey thank you for this graph17:17
BrainstormNew from WebMD: WHO: Africa Will Get 30% of COVID Vaccines It Needs by February: Low vaccination rates in Africa are reported as richer countries like the U.S. begin giving booster shots. → https://is.gd/4Upt5I17:19
ublxinteresting reasoning. if IVM does nothing relevant then it is not a cure, but if it is a cure it ought to be also an effective prophylaxis (since it is well tolerated) and thusly ought to decimate positive test results. if it were a cure17:20
LjLwell, has India been using it as a prophylaxis? it's cheaper than other things presumably, but it's a poor country with a shitton of people17:21
ublxpossibly?17:21
ublxi don't recall but i think so17:21
LjL%s india ivermectin prophylaxis17:21
BrainstormLjL, 131512.0 hits: https://indianexpress.com/article/india/ivermectin-goa-world-health-organisation-covid-7310664/ (Day after Goa prescribes Ivermectin as prophylaxis for ...) — https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33592050/ (Role of ivermectin in the prevention of SARS-CoV-2 ... - PubMed) — http://ivermecpls.com/ (Buy Ivermectin tablets – Ivermectin for humans) [... want %more?]17:21
LjLGoa, eh17:22
LjLGoa is rich17:22
LjLon the other hand17:23
LjL"Results: Ivermectin prophylaxis was taken by 76 controls and 41 cases. Two-dose ivermectin prophylaxis (AOR 0.27, 95% CI, 0.15-0.51) was associated with a 73% reduction of SARS-CoV-2 infection among healthcare workers for the following month."17:23
LjLhttps://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33592050/17:23
lastshellhttps://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/09/15/us/illinois-family-vaccine-obit/index.html the main factor after 6 months been vaccinated got covid17:25
LjLalso https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34513470/ but same hospital and same people, not sure why it's a different study, i guess they're replicating it17:26
LjLi wonder why i don't see these Indian papers, or really if i google "india paper ivermectin" it's not like news show up, and Dered Lowe doesn't mention it in his links of studies on ivermectin, i should get one of those meta-reviews and see if it's there17:32
LjLthe second study is just much larger than the first, it should be large enough to draw attention imo17:33
LjL"Results Of 3892 employees, 3532 (90.8%) participated in the study. The ivermectin uptake was 62.5% and 5.3% for two doses and single dose, respectively."17:33
LjLand if i search for this study on Twitter i only get randos linking to it but no serious opinion17:35
LjL%title https://twitter.com/BrainstormBot/status/143816558986070425617:42
BrainstormLjL: From twitter.com: Brainstorm (@BrainstormBot): "@Dereklowe I have a question about this Indian study on Ivermectin, since you have followed and blogged about it, but I don't see the study mentioned by you or many on [...]17:42
BrainstormNew from Eric Topol: @EricTopol: This new @TheLancetInfDis review on #SARSCoV2 transmission makes the strong case for mucosal immunity, which could be achieved via nasal or oral vaccines, that are unfortunately not getting priority for development https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00472-2/fulltext @dariusdariusdar → https://is.gd/AUXXU018:25
nixonixin uk, VE vs (identified) symptomatic 20+ weeks quite a difference between 65+ yo and 40-64 (55.3% vs 75.7%)18:34
LjLnixonix, was looking at http://offloop.net/covid19/?default=India;Israel&byPopulation=yes&cumulative=no&smooth=yes earlier because of ivermectin speculation and damn, sure the death rate is lower than last wave, but it's still so substantial, like nearly half18:39
LjLalso i posted this https://twitter.com/BrainstormBot/status/1438165589860704256 with a link to two ivermectin studies that don't seem to get much publicity18:40
nixonixhowcome they use 40-64 yo in 20+ week stats. most of them havent had that much time from their 2nd dose, so they must be from some priority groups. uk reached 45% 2nd dose coverage in mid june, so18:40
nixonixconsidering priority groups, prob most of 40-50 yo got their 2nd dose in june18:41
nixonixi havent really followed much ivm stuff, and rely on experts since estimating evidence of RCT's is hard (other type of studies you can scrap when the first well made RCT arrives)18:44
nixonixdamn i cant remember were i saw the india situation described, but case reduction couldnt be explained with ivm use18:46
nixonixdeath rates - when they likely have around 10x more deaths than official number, i wouldnt use it for any comparison18:47
BrainstormNew from WHO Euro: 53 Member States of the WHO European Region agree to safeguard the health and well-being of their populations, now and in the future: Six hundred high-level delegates, including over 30 health ministers from the 53 countries in the WHO European Region, gathered virtually at the 71st session of the WHO Regional Committee for Europe, [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/poUK0L18:47
nixonix.title https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1412635807702142982  you read this thread?18:47
Brainstormnixonix: From twitter.com: Health Nerd (@GidMK): "Another day, another systematic review and meta-analysis of the same ivermectin research published This one is positive. I don't think it should be 1/n" | nitter18:47
nixonixor did you mean death rate in israel. depends who get infected. using raw data is messy18:48
nixonix.title https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/143810072862354637318:51
Brainstormnixonix: From twitter.com: John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch): "Now protection against hospitalisation: • Much higher than against infection 💪 • Pfizer shows very little waning apart from in very elderly • AZ shows slight [...]18:51
nixonixAZ "slight waning" and ""80% adults". no. burn-murdoch has bias in these vaccine analyses18:51
nixonixthey should use smaller age groups, and only 70+ yo for those 20+ week comparisons, because those special groups that got vaccine that early despite being younger, are not comparable unless similar special groups are used as control18:53
nixonixand it gets pretty small then18:53
LjL<nixonix> i havent really followed much ivm stuff, and rely on experts since estimating evidence of RCT's is hard (other type of studies you can scrap when the first well made RCT arrives) ← okay, but the point when i start wondering is when some large studies like this one just *aren't* in meta-reviews18:53
nixonixlet me know if anyone bothers to do comparisons for age groups like 70-79 from that data18:54
LjL<nixonix> damn i cant remember were i saw the india situation described, but case reduction couldnt be explained with ivm use ← ublix mentioned he believed India was using it as a prophylactic too, and i've confirmed that for the state of Goa, dunno other states18:54
nixonixi dont think there is single proper rct on ivm. and prob no need to make one, since lots of more promising drugs would need to be first18:55
LjLnixonix, also yes i meant death rate in Israel18:55
LjLwell i don't know, it's been two years, how long do these promises hold?18:55
nixonixforget ivm, theres nothing there to waste time18:55
nixonixyou read that twitter thread? i sometimes link good expert threads here (that mouse study, and that immunological basic stuff), nobody comments, and i think nobody read them18:57
LjLhonestly you like such a huge load of things here that i don't think anyone could click and read them all18:57
BrainstormNew from Eric Topol: @EricTopol: R to @EricTopol: The (Pfizer) bottom line, w/ antibody % safety data in this 53 page report.Their case is not made sufficiently for all age groups, predominantly relying on infections, not protection from severe illness, which exists now for age ≥ 60That may change with ongoing follow-up data. → https://is.gd/LMy3Or18:57
LjLoften enough while i'm reading one abstract you link, when i come back, you've linked to another three18:58
LjLi realize there are a LOT of study, but my brain isn't on an l-theanine overdose18:58
nixonixok tell me when you have read the one above18:59
nixonixthe best way imo to understand, why especially drug studies dont mean shit, if they are not large and well done RCT's is to read series of derek lowe's blogs on the subject (he has done quite a few during the last 15 years or so)19:02
nixonixthey sometimes link to the older ones, so they can be found19:02
LjLby "the one above" you mean what? https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1438100728623546373 ? or something on mice, since that doesn't seem to be about mice?19:03
nixonixdamn i cant find old lowe's blogs still19:09
nixonixthis one https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/141263580770214298219:09
LjLit's all been moved from sciencemag to science19:09
LjLi read that one19:10
nixonixgoogle link points to science.com but one post just doesnt open19:10
LjLbut that thread doesn't mention the study i'm looking at, maybe because it's not a proper RCT, but then again, sure, someone could say "oh those two studies, the biggest ones, are biased, unlike what the review says, so they should be discounted, and then the evidence becomes zero" but other people will say "those are two of the best studies we have on it", like this review seemed to say after all19:12
nixonixnot in archives either, titled "A New Look at Clinical Success Rates"19:13
LjLwhich of all of them am i supposed to believe? no one i guess, i should read each individual study in detail. but then that's a failure of science because even Dered Lowe *did* say that he's still willing to accept positive ivermectin results, because he's only failed to see evidence, not thinking there is negative evidence19:13
nixonixthose small and bad studies, after critically seeing if some of them has any quality and worth as an evidence, those which may have, should be used only as a hint, if a proper first RCT should be made or not19:14
LjLthey may still be moving stuff to science and google may need time to catch up19:14
LjLwell these are two studies: one small, that found evidence of a benefit, and so then they made a much larger one, with 3500 participants. that's not a proper RCT, but it is large19:15
nixonixwhen its made, scrap those earlier studies, and use that first RCT as a hint, if another larger RCT should be made or not. most of them fail at phase 2 latest19:15
nixonixfunny it isnt in archives. everybody reads them. that was pre-rona though... i suspect title was changed or something19:16
nixonixor maybe he wanted it removed for some reason19:16
nixonixor wants to correct some thing before adding it19:16
nixonixivt is a dead horse. it shouldnt be spanked anymore19:17
LjLLowe's post can be read here https://web.archive.org/web/20210825020310/https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2018/02/02/a-new-look-at-clinical-success-rates19:17
nixonixivm19:17
LjLmy impression is that ivm has gotten such a bad reputation from the fanatics "eating horse paste", that nobody wants to touch it anymore without big disclaimers. is it really bad, or has it been "tained" with a pseudoscience aura and so scientists don't want to ruin their reputation testing it?19:18
JuerdLikely both19:19
JuerdIt is really bad in common circumstances: overdose, non-human medicine.19:20
nixonixdifferent url i tried to find in archives. how did you find that?19:20
nixonixoh damn, i didnt use the url google gave...19:20
JuerdAnd why as a scientist would you risk your reputation testing something that's praised as a "miracle drug" which quite obviously isn't that?19:21
nixonixbut the old one without date. no wonder19:21
JuerdIt might have some effect, but it can't be large or we would have noticed by now.19:21
LjL"So let me finish up by saying that my mind is not yet made up about ivermectin. I can be convinced by good data; if I couldn't be, I shouldn't be doing my day job at all. But I am not too optimistic - the data so far are consistent with a lot of other sorta-kinda-maybe-maybe not things I've seen over the years" - Derek Lowe19:21
LjLnixonix, i used another search engine to avoid Google's extremely annoying "fake URL" behavior19:21
IndoAnon...19:21
nixonixthey are doing some trial in imperial college now, if i recall. but whatever the result, its just the first phase19:21
IndoAnonTell me, nixonix, why do you think ivermectin, a protease inhibitor is bad?19:23
nixonixif we look at the rates drugs pass all the phases, and consider theres not even suggested plausible mechanism ivm works, its very close to 0% chance it would work for sars219:23
ublixJuerd | It is really bad in common circumstances: overdose, non-human medicine <-- it is a drug for humans for which the creator was awarded a nobel prize19:24
Juerdublix: It exists in specific forms which are meant for animals, such as the horse paste. Humans should not be taking that, but they are.19:25
ublixJuerd | And why as a scientist would you risk your reputation testing  <-- because there is a plethora of low quality trial data and further research is needed19:25
LjLthere are many drugs we use for which we have no established mechanism for why they work19:25
nixonixif somebody gets a nobel for a drug for some disease, does it mean it works for any disease?19:26
IndoAnonhttps://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.06.20208066v119:26
Juerdublix: Human ivermectin and veterinary ivermectin are both ivermectin, but the way it's delivered matters, and so does the dosage.19:26
Juerdublix: It does indeed exist as a drug for humans, and it has actual uses. It seems to be safe in those doses too.19:26
Juerddosages19:27
ublixJuerd: the human form is well tolerated at large doses; if the authorities were so concerned about the harm of abuse of veterinary forms, they would approve widespread use of it in the spirit of experiment, and this whole debate/problem would go away19:27
nixonixljl afaik there are usually suggested and plausible mechanism, but not necessarily confirmed or perfectly understood. give an example for some, they have no idea how it works19:27
nixonix(maybe there are such, idk)19:27
Juerdublix: I think it is insane to think that the authorities would approve something if they were concerned about the abuse of the same thing.19:27
ublixJuerd: watch your use of the word 'same'19:28
JuerdAlso, authorities don't typically do medical experiments on the population. That's kinda frowned upon.19:29
nixonixguys, get off the wormhole, and wait for evidence that it works. before that, theres nothing19:29
LjLno, there's evidence you consider low-quality19:29
LjLmaybe rightly so, maybe not19:29
Juerdnixonix: "You can't expect us to wait forever for something that won't come! We need it now!!"19:29
IndoAnonMoxidectin and ivermectin inhibit SARS-CoV-2 replication in Vero E6 cells but not in human primary airway epithelium cells https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.05.17.444467v119:30
LjLnixonix, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Drugs_with_unknown_mechanisms_of_action :P19:30
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Pope urges COVID inoculations, says vaccines are humanity's friends → https://is.gd/NMj3K919:30
nixonixwhy you want there to be that evidence? if it somehow magically appears to work, lets return the subject after evidence of that19:30
nixonixvery short list of drugs. maybe ill have a look on some of them, if there are some plausible mechanisms after all... they have no good idea on those, did you check?19:31
nixonixindo, with huge concentrations (ivm), toxic in human use19:32
LjLnixonix, this is a medication that was widely used to treat depression, and is still used to an extent, and its therapeutic-to-overdose ratio is very low so it's kinda dangerous, and yet its mechanism of action is unknown, with only some hypothesis: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium_(medication)#Mechanism_of_action19:32
IndoAnonWell, at least those prophylaxis studies exclude those who hasn't been infected with SARS-CoV-219:33
nixonixanyways, there are many drugs that work as an antiviral for human suitable concentrations. but they are just not good enough. remdesivir as an example (but it actually could be ok, combined to some other antiviral)19:33
IndoAnonAnd does not claim that it has 90%, no 95% effectiveness19:33
nixonixso even with an odd chance that ivm somehow magically had a small antiviral effect, there are many that have more than small already (esp some mAbs)19:34
nixonixljl, so they have some decent ideas of mechanism with that one? beats ivm then...19:35
LjLno, they have random guesses none of which is confirmed at all19:36
LjLthey are looking for a lithium receptor but there's no evidence of one and there probably isn't one19:36
LjLdon't think it gets much more "we have no idea how it works" than that19:36
IndoAnonYet those mAbs shown to be less effective to newer strains19:36
nixonixwhy does it have to be ivm that you guys want to work? why any drug that is efficient and not too toxic with concentrations that it shows strong effect19:37
LjLwhat's a drug like that with a study like the indian one i showed that would indicate >70% efficacy?19:37
IndoAnon>Neutralizing titers that were reduced 2- to 3.5-fold against the B.1.427/B.1.429 variant relative to wild-type pseudoviruses. The L452R mutation reduced neutralizing activity in 14 of 34 RBD-specific monoclonal antibodies (mAbs).19:37
IndoAnon>The S13I and W152C mutations resulted in total loss of neutralization for 10 of 10 NTD-specific mAbs because the NTD antigenic supersite was remodeled by a shift of the signal peptide cleavage site and the formation of a new disulfide bond.19:37
LjLjust name one that has such a purported effect and i'll pay attention to that one19:37
IndoAnonhttps://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.22.457114v119:38
ublixnixonix: who here said "want to work"?19:38
nixonixnot all of them are affected with delta, and new ones are coming (moabs). eg regn2, one of the combo is still good, and one is only partly affected19:38
LjLublix, no one, i think he's taking my concern that it may be "tainted" by anti-logic people and turning it into me wanting that it works19:38
nixonixthose who keep returning the subject19:38
LjLokay so we shouldn't talk about it19:38
LjLstop us19:38
nixonixdamn, i dont know how to deop me with this web client19:39
IndoAnonIf you think mixed results == not effective19:39
IndoAnonBy the same logic, vaxx that doesn't prevent infection, hospitalization, or death would be not effective too19:42
nixonixthose western approved vaccines passed all their 3 trials19:42
ublixi find the furore around the subject more interesting than the data, since there isn't yet enough data to drown out the furore19:43
IndoAnonOh well, those prophylaxis, cytokine storm preventive stuff, all has passed human challenge19:44
nixonixno they havent, and alternatives to DEX are used, while those havent passed trials. (maybe they shouldnt, but just use DEX, imo)19:46
nixonixbut those like heparin are used symptoms based. and theres good evidence that heparin works for that type of symptoms (maybe phase trials too?)19:47
IndoAnonBy human challenge, I mean without something called "attack rate"  bla bla19:47
nixonixecks could prob tell more, why they can use stuff that hasnt passed trials specifically for covid symptoms19:48
nixonixsince im no expert, i can just repeat some expert stuff ive read, like on ivm. like a parrot19:49
IndoAnonWe all do19:50
nixonixhere's some expert comment, in a box low in this dm article (expert on ivm mechanism, prob not covid). Timothy Geary:19:50
nixonix.title https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9969571/Joe-Rogan-rails-critics-slammed-taking-anti-parasite-drug-Ivermectin-treat-COVID-19.html19:50
Brainstormnixonix: From www.dailymail.co.uk: Joe Rogan rails critics who slammed him for taking anti-parasite drug Ivermectin to treat COVID-19 | Daily Mail Online19:50
IndoAnonAlthough anecdotal, it does help him, right?19:51
nixonixivm rogan? not likely19:52
nixonixbtw, he didnt tell if he got vaxed or not19:52
BrainstormNew from Anthony J Leonardi: @denise_dewald: RT by @fitterhappierAJ: Spike protein may facilitate the aggregation of proteins whose build-up in the brain is linked to Alzheimer's, like beta-amyloid and tau.More evidence that you really don't want this virus in your brain.#GetVaccinated and #MaskUp and #N95forAllhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7988450/https://is.gd/SwfBg019:52
IndoAnonIf someone didn't die and """vaccinated""", it's a success for the vaxx. Yet if someone died because SARS-CoV-2 while already receiving 2 doses...19:54
nixonix.title https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciab591/6310839#.YNomw8cj-yQ.twitter  i seem to have some links saved on ivm19:56
Brainstormnixonix: From academic.oup.com: Ivermectin for the Treatment of Coronavirus Disease 2019: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials | Clinical Infectious Diseases | Oxford Academic19:56
nixonix.title https://twitter.com/Dereklowe/status/141139687912913715519:57
Brainstormnixonix: From twitter.com: Derek Lowe (@Dereklowe): "A word of caution about extrapolating antiviral activity from Vero cell assays. Ivermectin (for example) turns out to work in that system, but not in human epithelial cells: [...]19:57
nixonix.title https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/ivermectin-covid-19-therapy  in comments section of these blogs have had good information on those still thinking maybe if it works anyway20:00
Brainstormnixonix: From www.science.org: Ivermectin As a COVID-19 Therapy | Science | AAAS20:00
IndoAnonhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8383101/?report=classic20:04
IndoAnon>Among the most recent and comprehensive of these seven meta-analyses reported a pooled total of 31 deaths among 1101 subjects in IVM treatment groups and 91 deaths among 1064 controls from 11 RCTs, amounting to a 67% reduction in mortality, with a statistical significance for an overall effect of p = 0.005 [20:05
nixonix"The indicated biological mechanism of IVM, competitive binding with SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, is likely non-epitope specific, as reviewed [8], possibly yielding full efficacy against emerging viral mutant strains"20:08
IndoAnon¯\_(ツ)_/¯20:09
nixonix"competitive binding", as like decoy for RBD?20:09
nixonixthat would have been found, if real20:10
IndoAnonWell Sars-CoV-2 and the spike protein printed by the cells was able to induce auto-immune problems. And yet we're unable to know the very mechanics20:11
nixonixand when RDB's shpe changes, so change the binding affinity, since there must be some epitopes where it binds to, and when the distance between them changes, the affinity will reduce20:12
nixonixrbd20:12
IndoAnonThat's the same problem with the mRNA vaxx btw20:13
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Trinidad & Tobago health minister: Nicki Minaj’s ‘swollen testicle’ COVID-19 vaccine claims are false → https://is.gd/oQpDk520:13
nixonixthere are lots of antibodies, and only some of them are affected. reduced yeah, but not that much with delta. with SA variant its quite a bit more20:14
nixonixbut it hasnt the transmission like delta20:14
IndoAnonI think I have said few times, that recovering from one strain doesn't guarantee immunity to other strains20:14
nixonixanyways, whatever they mean with that "competitive binding" - which should be then either RBD, those cleavage sites or ace2, it would be easy to prove, and hasnt happened20:15
nixonixso to me it looks like empty speculation20:16
nixonixtheres always just partial immunity with vaxes, that keep waning. the rate differs, and evolution rate of viruses20:17
IndoAnonhttps://www.soester-anzeiger.de/deutschland-welt/coronavirus-hoffnung-mittel-gegen-coronavirus-goettingen-zr-13581299.html20:18
IndoAnon>"Their confidence is based on the knowledge that they now know how the novel coronavirus Sars-CoV-2 penetrates cells. An infection is only possible in this way. They identified a cellular enzyme that is important for the entry of the coronavirus into the lung cells - only by examining cell cultures, i.e. not on the living object. It's called "Protease TMPRSS2". "We have found a starting point for fighting the virus," says Stefan Pöhlmann, head of the20:18
IndoAnoninfection biology department at the Göttingen DPZ. Also because it is known that the drug Camostat Mesilate approved in Japan blocks exactly "Protease TMPRSS".20:18
IndoAnonHmm, I think this one, nixonix20:19
nixonixwith sars2 S1 its nowdays 5x the rate of flu strain H3N2's hemagglutinin (which evolves faster than flu B)20:20
IndoAnonThat's why Pfizer is doing the anti-protease drug20:20
nixonix*flu B20:21
nixonixcamostat, they have a mechanism for that, it blocks tmprss2 (like nafamostat, its iv version)20:22
IndoAnonAh, yea. Definitely .The pressure is high because partial neutralization, which helps the rise of. ...20:22
IndoAnonstrains that completely evades vaxx induced immunity20:22
nixonixnot sure how nafamostat trials have progressed. it looked to my untrained eye promising, but yuri also thought it was20:23
nixonixi wonder why those trials take so much time. those possible small molecule drugs are not likely to be effient enough (with concentrations suitable), but as a cocktail, with or without some mAbs (cheaper without)20:25
nixonixthey cost money, and if they are too cheap, even if owned by big pharmas, they dont seem to be willing to finance them fast20:26
IndoAnonYeah, it's totally because of the cost20:26
IndoAnonthe tax base is shrinking while people ask for gibs20:26
nixonixmaybe they still are too expensive, that they are not accepted to trials like RECOVERY20:27
IndoAnonYea20:29
nixonix.title https://academic.oup.com/biostatistics/article/20/2/273/481752420:29
Brainstormnixonix: From academic.oup.com: Estimation of clinical trial success rates and related parameters | Biostatistics | Oxford Academic20:29
nixonixcheck the tables a bit lower20:29
nixonixrate for passing all the 3 trial phases - excluding oncology that is way worse - 13.6%20:31
nixonixbut realistically ivm's chances are much lower20:32
IndoAnon>Table 2 contains phase and overall POS estimates by therapeutic group. The overall POS (POS1,APP⁠) ranges from a minimum of 3.4% for oncology to a maximum of 33.4% for vaccines (infectious disease).20:32
IndoAnonGee20:32
IndoAnonThat's one magnitude difference20:32
nixonixit has only "infectious diseases", 19.1%. but antivirals would be much lower20:33
nixonixthey just very rarely work, being efficient enough, even if some effect20:33
nixonixeven rogan, who repeated that false news from japan, didnt trust ivm, but got monoclonals and what not. who knows, might have been vaccinated too, when he hasnt commented it20:35
MerlinMp[m]<nixonix> "maybe they still are too..." <- Thats not the only case, In Poland research for cure has stopped because there were not enough sick people qualified for program20:35
nixonixnafamostat trial?20:36
nixonixor generally. yeah, i just meant that some drugs might be too expensive for those WHO etc trials for to be accepted, but not expensive enough for big pharma to finance20:37
MerlinMp[m]No, amantadine research but its amazing we have not enough sick people to examine20:37
nixonixcurrently cases going up in balkan and baltia, not visegrad countries20:38
nixonixbut who knows how it goes again, when winter is coming20:38
IndoAnonI predict that cases will start to climb late September and early October20:40
MerlinMp[m]People are rather optimistic because deaths rate is significantly lower than prev year20:40
nixonixlong time ago i read that at least 300 ronavax projects already. summer 2020 or so. so prob at least 1000 projects or more by now, some of them scrapped prob for lack of financing20:40
nixonixbut its big pharma game, small projects have hard time to find financing for 1st trials. then manufacturing after those... look at novavax20:41
MerlinMp[m]Who would finance drugą if you can buy vax for 20 usd20:42
nixonixall i have learned, cases go up, then down, then up etc. i expect it to continue for quite awhile20:42
IndoAnonMerlinMp[m]: yet the CEO said that he will add more vaxx20:42
IndoAnonSo, that would be 20 bucks times the strains20:43
IndoAnon*pfizer20:43
twomoon1000 ronavax projects?20:43
twomoonis the barrier to entry that low?20:44
nixonixif you read reinfection studies from pre-alpha period, they found very high protection for identified infection after 6 months or even more. but that was before these recent variants20:44
IndoAnonUh, nixonix, I don't know what you mean by pre-alpha... Was it 2019 or 2020?20:45
LjLAlpha is the Kent/UK variant20:45
LjLdefinitely later than 201920:45
nixonixmaybe its a bit better if you got infected with delta. but prob not that much, since its strength isnt immune evasion but high cell infectivity and transmission20:46
nixonixyeah i just saw some study that found something like 98% protection against reinfections, ill try to find it a bit later. pre-alpha period, from spring 2020 to early 2021 i think, in michigan possibly20:47
IndoAnonanyway, this has been part of /cvg/ for at least a year https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/08/covid-19-reinfection-tracker/20:47
twomoondelta has so much turnover that once it infects you, the chances are high that it will literally evolve inside your body to become vax-evading20:47
IndoAnon>average intervals 115 days20:48
MerlinMp[m]I remember some research in Denmark where the reinfection rate was about 2% amongst old people20:50
nixonix.title https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/143755358227068109220:51
Brainstormnixonix: From twitter.com: Trevor Bedford (@trvrb): "My (speculative) hypothesis is that fall 2020 was when second waves started occurring in which some fraction of infections would be in recovered individuals. Immunity in [...]20:51
nixonixbut its pretty much proved, that (still good) vaccine protection reduces variants emerging20:51
nixonixnow if we let it to wane, because "severe is just ok enough", it may be different20:52
MerlinMp[m]But if vaxxed got infected they also create mutations20:53
IndoAnonI might be biased. But, I saw study last year that said the serological level dropped hard after 3 months on those people who got SEVERE condition after infection. Now, in 2021, I saw 2 people charting their IgG anti-s1, went down by 60% after 31 days post injection of 2nd dose20:53
MerlinMp[m]But you cannot judge immunity by level of IgG20:57
nixonixyeah, theres a changed selective pressure among vaxed, but if its efficient, it will reduce virion production - and hopefully transmission - so much that the result is less chances for new more dangerous variants. or thats what they say, and there was a recent study21:02
IndoAnonMerlinMp[m]: Ok, this claim doesn't have source other than my hunch. But, I think T cell isn't doing a really good job of remembering previous infection and participated in neutralization (metric: neutralization effectiveness and quantity) in corona case21:05
nixonixthose commercial quantitative ab tests shouldnt be used to estimate the protection, according to cdc21:07
MerlinMp[m]I think there is a big gap between covid infections and severe infections with mortality. I know many people who went through covid with headache only so we are missing some additional factor making covid severe (autoantibodies?)21:08
nixonixfor both pfizer and moderna, neut ab titers half-life is around 50 days, but for protection around 68 days. idk how it is with other type of vaccines21:08
nixonixand it looks like neutralizing ab titers has a decent correlation with protection. there is an old claim that binding abs correlate with neuts, but i think not accurately enough, to estimate protection21:10
nixonixisrael was supposed to release a study on vax waning today21:11
IndoAnonMaybe OAS or ADE or some unknown world soup is real. But, when identified, they really need some milk(Vit. D)21:11
IndoAnonI mean large chunk of those with medium to severe symptoms21:13
IndoAnonLet me check their antibody test kit21:14
nixonix.title https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/1437898855815827460  has a graph on uk or england. imo only the 2 oldest age groups should be looked at, wrote about reasons earlier today21:14
Brainstormnixonix: From twitter.com: Tom Wenseleers (@TWenseleers): "Baten van vaccins zijn voor alle volwassenen voor alle leeftijdsgroepen klaar en duidelijk (hier data PHE). Beste bescherming wordt geboden door combinatie van [...]21:14
MerlinMp[m]OAS?21:15
nixonixthey found some evidence on OAS recently, not between variants or vax and current variant, but i think between common cold ronas and sars2. i linked the study another day, or somebody did21:16
nixonixhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Original_antigenic_sin21:16
nixonixbut since natural infection and vax gives the best protection there is, even if there is some OAS affecting, it prob isnt much. with current variants21:18
MerlinMp[m]Its interesting, I need to read more about it21:20
TurboTechHi Guys21:21
TurboTechHow are you all?21:21
nixonixif somebody has logs and could grep about OAS or original antigenic sin, would prob find the study21:21
nixonixturbo you missed some studies you would have liked. but i forgot what were they21:22
TurboTechSorry.  Where they on Vitamin D?21:23
MerlinMp[m]But I still dont understand why plain interferon would not be sufficient to block covid infection21:23
nixonixno but some cellular metabolism related and like, i think21:23
IndoAnonTurboTech: Drink your milk and get some sunshine21:23
IndoAnonSo, do we still have logging enabled or not?21:24
TurboTechIndoAnon, it's alot deeper than that.21:24
IndoAnonHmm?21:25
TurboTechIt has to do with the most polymorphic binding protein in the Human body.21:26
nixonixyeah theres logs mentioned in topic. but who knows what the days were, so its hard to find21:26
nixonix.title https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0197458021002104?via%3Dihub  this was one i had in mind21:27
Brainstormnixonix: From www.sciencedirect.com: Healthy dietary intake moderates the effects of age on brain iron concentration and working memory performance - ScienceDirect21:27
nixonix.title https://www.nature.com/articles/s41587-021-01020-421:28
Brainstormnixonix: From www.nature.com: Integrated analysis of plasma and single immune cells uncovers metabolic changes in individuals with COVID-19 | Nature Biotechnology21:28
TurboTechThank you.21:29
TurboTechIt is amazing that more people are not looking at the function of the Monocyte and Macrophages.21:30
TurboTechWhen you look at the data it is blaring.21:30
nixonixand about oas and common cold ronaviruses followed by rona: "These findings support a boost of poorly protective coronavirus-specific antibodies in COVID-19 patients that correlates with disease severity, revealing original antigenic sin"21:32
IndoAnon.title https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2021.598601/full21:33
BrainstormIndoAnon: From www.frontiersin.org: Frontiers | Is Ferroptosis a Future Direction in Exploring Cryptococcal Meningitis? | Immunology21:33
nixonix.title https://www.jci.org/articles/view/15061321:33
Brainstormnixonix: From www.jci.org: JCI - Seasonal coronavirus-specific B-cells with limited SARS-CoV-2 cross-reactivity dominate the IgG response in severe COVID-19 patients21:33
IndoAnonA recent study also suggested that the mechanism of SARS CoV-2, leading to ferroptotic cell death, may be related to cysteine-associated cellular metabolism (42). Although the relative research appears sparse, these results suggest new potential links between ferroptosis and COVID-19, which may represent a novel strategy for treatment of COVID-19.21:33
de-factonixonix, the logs have a search functionality over the whole time21:34
nixonixok, i didnt notice21:35
IndoAnonTurboTech:21:35
de-factoactually its really nice21:35
IndoAnonhttps://archive.is/PUKHW  >analysis of 68,557 single-nucleus transcriptomes from three distinct regions of the brain identified an increased proportion of stromal cells, monocytes, and macrophages in the choroid plexus of COVID-19 patients.21:36
de-factoIndoAnon, how would those respond to NSAID such as Ibuprofen?21:37
lastshellhttps://www.npr.org/2021/09/13/1036533173/despite-warnings-south-africans-are-using-an-animal-medication-to-treat-covid-1921:39
TurboTechThis might be a battle of what came first the chicken or the egg.21:40
IndoAnon.title https://nitter.net/WHO/status/124040921799718912821:40
BrainstormIndoAnon: From nitter.net: World Health Organization (WHO) (@WHO): "Q: Could #ibuprofen worsen disease for people with #COVID19? A: Based on currently available information, WHO does not recommend against the use of of [...]21:40
nixonix.title https://twitter.com/oneunderscore__/status/1437462941100646405  since we are back to ivm...21:40
Brainstormnixonix: From twitter.com: Ben Collins (@oneunderscore__): "Can't stress how wild the ivermectin Facebook groups have become. So many people insisting to each other to never go to an ER, in part because they might not get [...]21:40
TurboTechOk to play devils advocate.21:41
TurboTechWho makes Ivermectin for Human consumption?21:41
nixonixmerck, big pharma21:41
TurboTechCorrect MERCK21:41
IndoAnon.title https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/09/nsaids-ibuprofen-not-tied-severe-covid-19-death21:42
BrainstormIndoAnon: From www.cidrap.umn.edu: NSAIDs like ibuprofen not tied to severe COVID-19, death | CIDRAP21:42
AtqueIndoAnon: Ferroptosis is a recently discovered cellular death mechanism, which is dependent on iron-catalyzed lipid peroxidation. It is distinct from apoptosis and necrosis, which are both regulated by caspases. It is characterized by lipid peroxidation, membrane lipid damage, mitochondrial dysfunction, cell shrinkage, and cell death. It is involved in various diseases, including neurodegenerative disorders, cancer, liver injury, diabetes, heart failure,21:43
Atque and kidney disease. It's like also at work here in COVID-19.21:43
TurboTechWho has the rights and a Supply Agreement for a new Anti Viral with The US government that will cost 705 dollars per dose for 1.7 million doses?21:44
IndoAnonAtque: I'm well aware of that21:44
nixonixturbo what do you think of rona staying in guts for months or more possibly, causing damage by autonantibodies, t-cell or neutrophil infiltration or something21:44
TurboTech.title https://www.merck.com/news/merck-announces-supply-agreement-with-u-s-government-for-molnupiravir-an-investigational-oral-antiviral-candidate-for-treatment-of-mild-to-moderate-covid-19/21:44
BrainstormTurboTech: From www.merck.com: Merck Announces Supply Agreement with U.S. Government for Molnupiravir, an Investigational Oral Antiviral Candidate for Treatment of Mild to Moderate COVID-19 - Merck.com21:44
IndoAnonTurboTech: Gee, I wonder that too21:44
TurboTechWhy did Merck not study Ivermectin?21:45
IndoAnonshekels, of course21:45
TurboTechprobably21:45
IndoAnonBut, most importantly, immunity from lawsuits?21:46
TurboTechIt either works or it does not.21:46
TurboTechIf it does not then prove it.21:47
TurboTechAnyway.21:47
nixonixmolnupiravir is interesting. maybe it would work as a combo with something like nafamostat (although different pharmas, so wont likely to be trialled together)21:47
TurboTechRegardless proper nutrition makes everything work better.21:47
de-factoIndoAnon, yeah i meant it more because of its anti-inflammatory properties, e.g. end potential inflammation of the brain (if it works like that, hence my question about how such cells would respond to such drugs)21:48
TurboTechFrom the Immune system itself as well as the treatments.21:48
MerlinMp[m]TurboTech: If it works for example  for women and does not work for men - does it mean its working or not working?21:50
lastshell80% of the sickenes start in the gut21:50
TurboTechThat is a fair question Merlin21:52
TurboTechShould we have not found this out a year ago?21:52
nixonixthere are different mechanisms behind anti-inflammatories. some beneficial vs severe rona, some not21:55
TurboTechLooking at Iuprofen and how it might have adverse effects on monocytes.21:56
nixonixibuprofein "might reduce immune response" - so potentially beneficial for severe, like when needing oxygen. but apparently it isnt or is worse than corticosteroids21:57
MerlinMp[m]From time to time I read two different researches which have totally opposite conclusions. Thats why regular people have little belief in science21:57
nixonix..profen21:57
LjL<CarlSagan> [Ars Technica - Science] Recent Ebola outbreak emerged from someone infected 5 years earlier https://arstechnica.com/?p=1795537 2021-09-15T19:22:5221:59
LjLwelcome to long COVID in case it acts by actually staying in the body!21:59
MerlinMp[m]Luckily most of conclusion issues comes from bad translation or abbreviations from people who has never analysed statistical data21:59
TurboTech.title https://journals.asm.org/doi/full/10.1128/JVI.00014-2121:59
BrainstormTurboTech: From journals.asm.org: Nonsteroidal Anti-inflammatory Drugs Dampen the Cytokine and Antibody Response to SARS-CoV-2 Infection | Journal of Virology21:59
IndoAnonIn that particular case, I don't think there would be advantage for consuming ibuprofen. Afterall, the problem happened with astrocytes/microglia then serotonin syndrome21:59
LjL"At the moment, however, we have no idea what tissue Ebola might be hiding out in, much less the mechanism that allows it to go dormant. The only RNA viruses that are known to cause long-lasting infections (called retroviruses) do so by integrating a DNA copy of themselves into their host's genome." ← that's not true, HSV, VZV and HPV are not retroviruses. but they keep saying this thing, as they did with COVID22:01
TurboTechGreat point Lj22:02
nixonixibu seems to be an antiplatelet too, but apparently aspirin is better22:05
MerlinMp[m]Are there any recent results of unvaxed reinfections?22:06
metasintactichere's an eye opening interview with robert malone (the inventor of mRNA vaccine tech) from yesterday. in short, mandatory vaccination is contrary to both established medical ethics and evidence based medical science. https://youtu.be/iwPKnOhJRYg22:06
LjLhe's also not "the inventor" of mRNA vaccine tech22:08
LjLbut people who are anti-vax certainly like to keep saying that22:08
TurboTechI have not noticed reinfections in my population.22:08
TurboTechWe did switch back over to running our Flu/RSV/Covid 19 package for our ER patients22:09
TurboTechMasks, Handwashing and Toilet Paper Hoarding helped reduce flu last year.  That is my story.22:10
LjLget bidets already22:10
TurboTechLOL22:10
TurboTechI should attach a shower wand.  LOL22:11
LjLsome countries have that, works too22:11
TurboTechThat is cold water22:11
LjLit's common in India and a few Arab countries22:11
LjLyeah22:11
LjLyou won't die from it, althugh admittedly, i usually use warm water :P22:11
nixonix.title https://journals.asm.org/doi/10.1128/Spectrum.00087-21  MerlinMp[m]  pre-alpha or delta, and prob missing most of them with very mild or no symptoms, or not systemic infection (upper respiratory only)22:15
Brainstormnixonix: From journals.asm.org: Mild SARS-CoV-2 Illness Is Not Associated with Reinfections and Provides Persistent Spike, Nucleocapsid, and Virus-Neutralizing Antibodies | Microbiology Spectrum22:15
nixonix"Reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 was not observed among individuals with mild clinical COVID-19, while infections continued in a group without known prior infection"22:16
TurboTechThey go on to explain Antibodies lasted up to 6 months.22:17
TurboTechI have to tell you, to have a patient come in who supposedly takes 1000 IU of vitamin D in the middle of the summer and has a 12 ng/mL Vitamin D Level and positive for Covid 19 was interesting.22:19
MerlinMp[m]Is it because research lasted 6 months? Or IgG went down to zero aster 6 months?22:20
TurboTechAccording to the RDA's in the middle of the summer 1000 iu should be plenty to keep you in replete state.22:20
LjLthat's what i take22:21
TurboTechMerlin, I hope they did not end the study.22:21
LjL*i* hope they lasted longer than 6 months ;(22:21
TurboTechI take 5000 and I know from August to November my Level fell 19%22:21
TurboTechThat is how influential the sun is22:22
LjLgood thing i've woken up at 5pm all summer22:22
LjLgot negative amounts of sun22:22
nixonixnot the same, neut IgG levels between vaxed and from infection. if its from infection, their GC b-cells keep maturing, when with vaxes, depends on vax how long (and possibly dose interval, which could explain differencies between uk and israel - and i mean vs hospitalizations)22:22
nixonixif there's a difference among dose interval, between waning rate of cases and hospitalizations, the reason must be something else than circulating abs. whether its matured b-cells, killer t-cells or something else22:25
MerlinMp[m]Well I`ve spent 5 months working from home before my covid, so in my case I`ve seen sun mostly through glass windows22:25
nixonix*according to dose interval22:25
nixonixljl wenseleers is one of those tweeters worth following, imo22:27
LjLalright, adding22:28
de-factofor Vitamin D you need direct sunlight exposure containing UV to large parts of uncovered skin, window glas filters that out22:28
LjLtoo bad UV are also harmful22:29
LjLour bodies are annoying22:29
de-factohas to be weighted with the risk of getting skin cancer, but in general it should be healthy up to a certain level22:29
lastshellwe need to go back to monkey22:29
LjLyeah why have we lost fur? honestly it looks pretty gross!22:30
de-facto*has to be balanced...22:30
lastshellthe recommend D levels is above 20 ?22:31
de-factoask TurboTech he knows much more about it22:31
LjLi think here it used to be a bit above 20, but they lowered it recently22:31
LjLconveniently so they don't have to offer it for free to too many people22:31
lastshellI had 36 last year22:31
lastshellI need to double check my levels this year22:32
de-factoi dont even know what i have, i take 2000IU=50µg daily22:32
TurboTechSorry guys I left the room22:32
lastshellthat's good de-facto22:32
de-factofor almost two years now22:32
TurboTech20 ng/mL is ok for bone health.22:32
nixonixheres been lots of discussion on fur thing. the last i read what they thought, it happened already in warmer climate22:32
lastshellI have one family member with that, becasue low level22:33
TurboTechI try to keep my level between 40-6022:33
TurboTechng/mL22:33
de-factoTurboTech, what is the recommened level to lower COVID risk again?22:33
TurboTechThe RDA's are way too low22:33
nixonixneanderthals used rags, homo sapienses more sophisticated sewed furs, so when temps reduced in europe, one hypothesis is, it affected more to neanderthals because of that22:34
TurboTechBetween 40-60 but most of medicine does not believe that.22:34
TurboTechThere is some data that says that the Monocyte has the ability to take in bound and unbound Vitamin D to convert it from 25(OH)D to 1,25 D22:35
de-factook well its special times, so if its not harmful, i guess i should go to a lab and let them analyze mine22:35
de-factoi have no clue where my level is22:35
TurboTechVia Megalin Cubilin Transport which would faciliitate it against the free hormone hypothesis that states that Hormones can not cross a membrane while bound to its carrier protein.22:36
LjLnixonix, making rags kinda requires technique too though22:36
TurboTechI can tell you this.  If you are not taking 3000-4000 IU daily you are probably below 20 unless you get out in the sun and in the winter when the sun angle changes there is no way in hell anyone has enough without supplementation.22:37
nixonixthey had their tech, but our ancestors had better. another difference they think, we had better and sharper weapons and just killed them eventually, after multiple tries to inhabit europe (from middle-east direction supposedly)22:38
de-factosince i am not tanned it, i probably should double my dose22:38
de-factoe.g. form 2000 to 400022:38
LjL"just killing" does seem like something we do pretty well22:38
TurboTechPersonally from that data that I collected on the people I work with each 1000 IU is good for 10 ng/mL22:38
nixonixoh yeah22:38
de-factooh really? thats something easy to remember :)22:39
TurboTechBut that is just from the data that I got from performing the Tests on my coworkers.22:39
nixonixvaries quite a bit among ppl. and so does results from different labs22:39
de-factoyeah it probably depends e.g. also of location, nutrition, and skin color22:39
de-factobody weight etc pp22:40
nixonixgo to 6 labs or so, scrap the top and bottom, and use average of the rest22:40
TurboTechCorrect22:40
TurboTechThe instrument manufactures say 30-100 ng/mL is normal22:40
TurboTechMedicine only cares if it is above 2022:41
TurboTechI did not mean to take over the conversation.22:41
nixonixmy solution was 10,000 IU pre-vax, and 7500 post (used to eat around 4-5000 pre-rona)22:41
de-factobut in .fi its also in milk products right?22:42
TurboTechI bet you had no problems with kidneystones either22:42
TurboTechVery low in Milk22:42
nixonixso little not having to think about it22:42
TurboTechit is there but the RDA are off by power of 1022:42
nixonixthey add a bit in milk and margarin and stuff22:42
de-factovery low in milk, even as supplement?22:42
LjLi think TurboTech is the anti-ecks22:42
* LjL sets up a fight22:42
TurboTechWhat is that?22:43
de-factohehe22:43
LjLsomeone else here in the medical profession22:43
nixonixe c k s thinks minimal lab tests are usually the best (outside of ER)22:43
TurboTechWho else here works in Medical Fields?22:43
LjLsee even nixonix is scared of highlighting him22:44
LjLTurboTech must also be German with his use of Capitals22:44
TurboTechWell when you take into consideration that lab Test are responsible for 60-70% of all diagnosis I fail to agree with this person.22:44
LjLhe'd consider that a bad thing. diagnoses lead to treatments which is annoying to do!22:45
TurboTechMaybe I am just biased.22:46
LjLyou may both be biased in different directions :P22:46
LjLoverdiagnosis is a thing, but i don't agree with what seemed like his views when he expressed them22:46
nixonixhe was exaggerating a bit, but he has a point22:47
TurboTechHere is something really interesting.22:47
de-factoof course ecks got a point, and he should get hightlighted when we are talking about his perspective22:48
-Bridgestorm- 🏠 地震! Earthquake! 5.9 Mb tremor, registered by 4 agencies, occurred 14 minutes ago (20:33:36 UTC), with a gibbous moon, Fuji, China (29.22, 105.4) ± 2 km likely felt 250 km away (in 泸州市, 内江市, 自贡市, 宜宾市…) by 14.5 million people (www.seismicportal.eu)22:48
eckshello22:48
* LjL hides22:48
ecksnever test anything22:48
TurboTechWe talk about people not wanting the Vaccine and then potentially not treating them, but we treat people all the time who have no interest in taking care of themselves and ultimately it is a waste of time22:48
eckswhat you can't see with your bare eyes, you can't treat22:48
TurboTechOk so just treat the symptoms.22:49
LjLsigns*22:49
LjLyou can't even see the symptoms!22:49
ecksthe second i see S-25-OH-Vitamin D in the lab module i'm getting the fuck out22:49
TurboTechThat's interesting.22:50
ecksalso i hate when things are measured in ng/mL22:52
ecksgive me nmol/L or give me death22:52
TurboTechSo if a patient comes in with a potential Thoracic  aortic dissection, you would not scan him?22:53
nixonixi never remember which one was good to have 80 or 100+ or something... so i just eat enough22:53
TurboTech2.5 is the conversion factor22:53
TurboTech1 ng/mL = 2.496 nmol/L22:53
eckspffft if i can't hear the aortic root dissecting with a stethoscope it's not significant22:53
nixonixso with the higher one, 150-200 is good equatorial level?22:53
TurboTechOk so you just want to treat the chest pain.  You dont run a D-dimer to rule out PE?22:54
ecksPE can be diagnosed in the autopsy22:55
TurboTechOk so the "First do no harm" really means "Do nothing at all"22:56
ecksit really means "do as little as possible, as much as possible"22:56
TurboTechLook I get it.  I take care of a high risk population.  Many on Drugs and Alcohol.  I hate using resources on people who come in who still drink and have esophageal varices and actively bleeding.22:58
TurboTechTo do what, prolong the inevitable?22:59
LjLi think ecks is parodying himself a little now to dismiss our mocking of him22:59
* LjL is going for an internet degree in psychology22:59
TurboTechLOL23:00
eckswe all die sooner or later, no use in prolonging the inevitable23:01
de-factoi kind of agree with the "do as little as possible" approach in terms of treatment, i am not sure if same should apply to diagnosis23:02
LjLsome would argue a doctor's job is prolonging the inevitable23:02
ecksD-dimer is one of my favorite tests though, it has very high sensitivity for PE23:02
eckswish we had point-of-care D-dimer around here23:02
TurboTechThen you probably love BNP23:02
ecksehhhhh23:02
ecksthe BNP gray zone is kinda ugly23:02
TurboTechNot ProBNP23:02
TurboTechPro BNP is worthless23:03
ecksNT-proBNP has a 99% sensitivity for CHF23:03
TurboTechFor non Meds.  BNP stands for Brain naturetic peptide.  (spelling) it is produced in response to poor cardiac output in Congestive heart failure.23:03
ecksit also has a negative predictive value of 99%23:04
ecksif that's "worthless" then idk what's good23:04
TurboTechThe range on Pro BNP is huge23:05
TurboTechWait a minute23:06
TurboTechOf course Renal function effects levels as well23:10
LjLthey can't even agree on whether basic lab tests are any good, how can i expect anyone to look at meta-reviews of ivermectin and discern between bullshit and real effects or lack thereof23:11
eckswe should do like the ancient greeks and just go back to smelling patients' urine23:12
TurboTechThe piss prophets23:12
TurboTechlet the ants do the work23:12
ecksthat said, proBNP is incredibly useful23:12
ecksD-dimer too but only if you have a reason to order it23:13
TurboTechI worked at an ope heart facility that used it.  It was not as good as the Biosite BNP in my opinion.23:13
de-factoi wonder if blood sugar levels are affected by covid because of beta-cell damage or such, do you see any correlated values for that?23:13
ecksI'm willing to guess proBNP probably costs 100 times less to order though23:14
ecksbesides it's an echo diagnosis anyway23:14
ecksclinical signs + >900 in proBNP and you're getting an echo referral23:14
TurboTechIt is not the reagent that costs.  The calibrators are 100023:14
IndoAnon>>339274696>You know what pisses me off the most... we have 70-80% double vaccinated people. At that point either the vaccinations work and everybody should be able to live their life comfortably.. or they don't work and you shouldn't implement the pass anyway. It's absolute retardation and only about power.23:14
IndoAnon>>339275853>Oh you didn't hear the news? The goalposts have been shifted yet again, they had their hands tied, could not do anything to stop that from happening. The new number is 95%. Geen grap.>>339275972>https://www.nu.nl/coronavirus/6157153/coronapas-volgens-omt-nodig-omdat-vaccinatiegraad-lager-dan-95-procent-is.html23:14
TurboTechThe cuvetts used to do coagulation studies are 1300 hundred a box of 1000.  I am on the wrong side of the Lab.23:17
TurboTechProBNP and BNP are the Gold Standard for CHF prior to that x-rays and braille were used.23:18
TurboTechAnyway got to go guys.  ecks nice to meet you.  Look forward to chatting again.23:20
TurboTechWait de-facto you question.23:21
TurboTechWhat causes the Beta cell Damage?23:22
de-facto.title https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-23886-323:22
Brainstormde-facto: From www.nature.com: Viral infiltration of pancreatic islets in patients with COVID-19 | Nature Communications23:22
ecksthis is why i preach for metformin when you turn 4023:24
TurboTechMetformin has huge anti oxidant potential23:24
TurboTechecks can we agree on something?23:24
eckson metformin's anti-oxidant potential?23:25
TurboTechno23:25
TurboTechI think we do on that.23:25
ecksi've forgotten how metformin works once again so i won't argue that point23:25
ecksmetformin goes in, sugar goes down, you can't explain that23:26
TurboTechOr let me ask you this.  What are your feelings about the potential of Sugar in the forms of HFCS and Table Sugar (both 50% fructose) needing to be taken out of diets as much as possible.23:26
ecksi mean i can't say i'm that into this subject but it doesn't sound like a terrible idea on a population level, at least23:27
TurboTechThe studying I am doing now is potentially pointing toward Sugar setting up our bodies over time injuring our endothelium as well as reprograming our monocytes toward inflammation and Sars CoV-2 may be able to exploit that weakness.23:29
TurboTechMetformin is now being studied as a potential agent against Sars CoV-223:29
de-facto.title https://www.nature.com/articles/s42255-021-00347-123:30
Brainstormde-facto: From www.nature.com: SARS-CoV-2 infects and replicates in cells of the human endocrine and exocrine pancreas | Nature Metabolism23:30
TurboTechde-facto if long term use of sugar injures the pancrease due to uric acid production and oxidative stress there is no reason to think that Covid could not play a role to make the damage worse in an acute scenario.  But we would need proof.23:31
de-facto.title https://journals.plos.org/plospathogens/article?id=10.1371/journal.ppat.100963423:32
Brainstormde-facto: From journals.plos.org: Diabetes and coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2): Molecular mechanism of Metformin intervention and the scientific basis of drug repurposing23:32
TurboTech.tite https://bmcendocrdisord.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12902-021-00698-623:32
TurboTech.title https://bmcendocrdisord.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12902-021-00698-623:32
BrainstormTurboTech: From bmcendocrdisord.biomedcentral.com: Uric acid‐induced pancreatic β-cell dysfunction | BMC Endocrine Disorders | Full Text23:32
ecksas long as we don't ban frozen pizza23:37
TurboTechWe just need to balance our Antioxidants  to match the oxidation process.  We screwed things up royally over time and now our children are about to pay the price.23:39
* de-facto prefers baked pizza :D23:40
TurboTechConsume more Olive oil and less Omega 6.23:41
MerlinMp[m]<ecks> "we all die sooner or later, no..." <- I would rephrase this to - dont treat something what is not causing a problem for patient. People blame doctors of unnecessary overtreatment23:42
* de-facto slurps on his mug of delicious hot and strong Green Tea :)))23:43
TurboTechExcellent job defacto23:45
de-factoi always put Green Tea leaves in a glas can in the morning for breakfast and refill several times a day with boiling water, so i always have a nice cup of Green Tea all day long23:47
de-factomaybe i am almost addicted to that stuff, i love it23:48
de-factowithout sugar of course23:49
TurboTechI like green tea with palmagranit23:49
TurboTechpomegranate23:49
TurboTechhow ever you spell it.23:49
de-factointeresting, i have to try that one23:50
TurboTechI remember back in school the students asked the chemistry instructor if spelling counted in the course and his response, "Not on Your life"23:50
lastshellI like the pomegranate as well23:51
TurboTechIt is a pretty potent antioxidant23:51
lastshellTurboTech are you also doing some exercise23:51
de-factoi sometimes put in into a smoothie, together with all the white stuff (it contains all the bitter tasting anti-oxidants), but i dont like that the kernels are not entirely grinded for the smoothie23:51
TurboTechnot really. I mean I walk a lot at work and I am a sport photographer on the side.23:52
TurboTechDe-facto try a table spoon of olive oil in your smoothie23:52
de-factobtw in the white skin of lemon fruits there are also all the anti-oxidants, some with potential anti-viral functions (hesperidin et al)23:52
TurboTechMy resting blood pressure is 11223:53
TurboTechover 7223:53
de-factoalso i prefer Matcha (Green Tea leafs grown in the shaddow, dried and grinded) over Coffee in the morning, but it really kicks ass (imho much stronger than Coffee)23:55

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