| de-facto | maybe it will at least drive some kind of innovative concepts, better targeting, but yeah why do we still have R>1, we need more smart containment concepts implemented, right now | 00:00 |
|---|---|---|
| de-facto | later when they open schools again it will be an additional promoter | 00:01 |
| de-facto | exactly now is the time to implement better biosecurity concepts for schools and also for mobility | 00:01 |
| de-facto | but yeah instead it wont be done, and politicians will act surprised "who could have known that?!", well its obvious that we will have outbreaks in schools | 00:02 |
| de-facto | now this could be tested, worst case, open all windows, in the winter that cant be done | 00:03 |
| stipa | yeah, it would be done but there is no technology for your ideas | 00:04 |
| de-facto | nothing bulletproof, but approaches | 00:04 |
| stipa | in reality science is very primitive | 00:04 |
| de-facto | HEPA filters, airflow management, restructure of processes, controlling distancing, planing passenger transport to/from school, avoiding doing all at same time, prevent big groups, prevent mixing of groups, prevent mixing of main contacts (e.g. static seating), testing in PCR pools | 00:07 |
| de-facto | there are many approaches, how well they work? we should know by now, but due to lack of studies we really dont | 00:07 |
| de-facto | some of them require medium to big structural changes at the school buildings (HEPA filters, airflow management), so they should start now | 00:08 |
| de-facto | some of those measures are highly effective, for example bi-weekly testing | 00:09 |
| de-facto | but they have to be enforced without exceptions, otherwise such concepts contain holes | 00:10 |
| de-facto | i think its mandatory to do this right now, since we dont have vaccines for children, we need alternative concepts ready for the winter | 00:11 |
| stipa | that's too much money | 00:14 |
| LjL | <de-facto> at some point in time we were not allowed to travel more than 15km from location of home iirc ← here it was about not leaving your municipality (which can be very big or very small, so more arbitrary) | 00:16 |
| LjL | but this all makes me think of how i should really have set up something to monitor and track and "remember" all the various restrictions ;( | 00:16 |
| LjL | people asked me earlier when italy lifted this or that, and i honestly have no idea right now | 00:17 |
| stipa | it's a mess | 00:17 |
| stipa | everywhere | 00:17 |
| de-facto | yes it would be neat to have such a tracker, werent we discussing various sources for that data some time ago? | 00:20 |
| de-facto | .title https://github.com/OxCGRT/covid-policy-tracker | 00:21 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From github.com: GitHub - OxCGRT/covid-policy-tracker: Systematic dataset of Covid-19 policy, from Oxford University | 00:21 |
| de-facto | .title https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-stringency-index?time=2021-07-10 | 00:22 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From ourworldindata.org: COVID-19: Stringency Index - Our World in Data | 00:22 |
| de-facto | .title https://covidtracker.bsg.ox.ac.uk/stringency-map | 00:25 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto, the URL could not be loaded | 00:26 |
| de-facto | .title https://covidtracker.bsg.ox.ac.uk/about-api | 00:26 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto, the URL could not be loaded | 00:26 |
| de-facto | .title https://supertracker.spi.ox.ac.uk/ | 00:31 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From supertracker.spi.ox.ac.uk: Home | Oxford Supertracker | 00:31 |
| de-facto | .title https://supertracker.spi.ox.ac.uk/policy-trackers/ | 00:31 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From supertracker.spi.ox.ac.uk: Policy Trackers | Oxford Supertracker | 00:31 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Nearly 1,000 Indonesian health workers have died from Covid-19. 401 doctors were among the victims. "Health system is close to collapse." → https://is.gd/8Ue1fd | 00:33 |
| de-facto | :( | 00:35 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/indonesia/ | 00:38 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.worldometers.info: Indonesia COVID: 2,491,006 Cases and 65,457 Deaths - Worldometer | 00:38 |
| de-facto | this looks bad, 32.5k daily positive tests (probably many more cases) | 00:39 |
| de-facto | reproduction R~1.3 based on ts = 4d | 00:40 |
| de-facto | hence doubling each T2 = 4d Ln(2)/Ln(1.3) ~ 11 days | 00:41 |
| de-facto | deaths rising just as cases, this is really really bad for Indonesia | 00:43 |
| de-facto | http://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Indonesia&byPopulation=yes&cumulative=no&smooth=yes&miscType=Reff | 00:43 |
| de-facto | .title https://covid19.go.id/peta-sebaran-covid19 | 00:44 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From covid19.go.id: Peta Sebaran COVID-19 | Covid19.go.id | 00:45 |
| LjL | <de-facto> yes it would be neat to have such a tracker, werent we discussing various sources for that data some time ago? ← yes, i think Oxford (or Cambridge?) was one of them, but i did the thing i sometimes do where i'm like "omg, so many things, now i have to think about a grand way to use them all" and then it seems daunting and i don't do it, and also i forget what the exact data sources were :\ | 00:45 |
| LjL | i'll add the one you linked to my .txt on github that has the "pending" stuff | 00:45 |
| LjL | de-facto, https://github.com/ljl-covid/links/blob/master/unsorted.txt i already have some of your links there, but i got them from the logs later, not sure they're all of what we had found | 00:46 |
| de-facto | the supertracker also got some i guess | 00:47 |
| LjL | de-facto, i was excited that there were open APIs i remember, and some of them (probably Oxford) has some impressive detail | 00:47 |
| de-facto | yes i think they are used by some other websites, was it ft.com or such? | 00:48 |
| de-facto | i somehow have the feeling EU is underestimating Delta, its extremely contagious | 00:49 |
| de-facto | as did other countries, unfortunately there is need for much more NPIs | 00:50 |
| LjL | de-facto, many country had "promised" their people that the vaccines would mark the beginning of the end of this | 00:50 |
| LjL | and now saying "nope, we're going to need more lockdowns" is tricky | 00:50 |
| de-facto | yeah true, yet i never bought that with the vaccines ending the pandemic, i always was saying it has to be controlled via NPIs | 00:51 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Recent Commits to links:master: Adding more links to restrictive measures / stringency indexes to the… ( https://github.com/ljl-covid/links/commit/e20b8d5443aed38a559d5af1cc77a2f0e3d60b9a ) | 00:52 | |
| de-facto | but ofc your point is on spot | 00:52 |
| Brainstorm | New from https://covid19.specops.network : ljl-covid: Adding more links to restrictive measures / stringency indexes to the… → https://is.gd/TOk3o6 | 00:54 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid: Woman aged 90 died with double variant infection: Simultaneous infections are rare but can happen, particularly in people yet to be vaccinated, warn experts. → https://is.gd/YllDxQ | 01:24 |
| LjL | de-facto, look at this ↑, before it was "vaccination will end this", now it's "if you're vaccinated then MAYBE you won't get simultaneously infected by TWO variants" | 01:25 |
| * LjL headdesks | 01:25 | |
| LjL | also, RIP poor woman | 01:25 |
| de-facto | yeah but tbf IFR was lowered by vaccinations a lot | 01:27 |
| de-facto | maybe there should be an index for each vaccine and current variant, e.g. IFR(age, vaccine, variant) | 01:28 |
| de-facto | i bet it would go down by an order of magnitude by vaccination, but possibly also go up again a bit when mutations punch holes into vaccine induced immunity by selected antigenic drift | 01:29 |
| whytek | thinking about joining this.. in all sincerity.. (for what it's worth) | 01:29 |
| whytek | https://vaxcontrolgroup.com/about.html | 01:29 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Lesotho: +257 cases (now 11903) since a day ago — Monaco: +11 cases (now 2622) since a day ago | 01:30 |
| LjL | um, this looks a bit like a thinly veiled anti-vax association tbh | 01:32 |
| whytek | LjL, I prefer the terms "dissenter" to anti-vax | 01:32 |
| whytek | *term | 01:32 |
| LjL | that term refers to a lot more things that anti-vax is much more specific about | 01:33 |
| whytek | I think it's pretty clear: but anyway.. you guys here have been very very pro vax since the beginning, blindly so. and now that it's not going so great I see stuff like "i never bought that with the vaccines ending the pandemic, i always was saying it has to be controlled via NPIs" | 01:35 |
| whytek | NPIs??? jesus | 01:35 |
| whytek | lift up your head and take a look around? | 01:35 |
| de-facto | point being? | 01:36 |
| whytek | NPIs are a disaster for developing immunity. | 01:36 |
| whytek | but i'm sure what ever I might say.. you're ready to trash it with your opinions, so never mind. | 01:37 |
| whytek | I guess if there's a point, it's that the semtiment in this channel is following the mainstream media much more than I ever would have expected. | 01:37 |
| whytek | but hey.. I'm just an old guy with weird nostalgic ideas about platforms like IRC being progressive, which of course, is silly. it's 2021. | 01:38 |
| de-facto | why are you so biased, how about trying to be a bit more open minded in terms of outcome | 01:39 |
| de-facto | well when NPIs are effective in preventing COVID of course by lowering the amount of infections also the amount of recoveries, granted, but the problem with that is that immunity by recovery is not as predictable as that from vaccinations, and COVID infection is a much bigger risk of serous health issues than any of the vaccines by many orders of magnitude | 01:40 |
| whytek | Ok. Lets' see if you don't take that back too in a little while more. I'm not saying you're wrong, or right, I honestly don't know. and I'm open to all outcomes. | 01:42 |
| whytek | I mean, you can't possibly KNOW what the serious health issues from the vaccines, directly or idirectly may be. | 01:43 |
| de-facto | possible it may be broader immunity, e.g. also including other antigenic epitopes, but are all of them even effective in preventing initial infections? | 01:43 |
| de-facto | same for COVID btw, its new | 01:43 |
| whytek | Indeed. of course. | 01:44 |
| whytek | anyway, i still think the idea of volunteering (sincerely) for a control group, be it or not a "veil" for "antivax", is worth considering.. But of course it won't be popular with the "get vaccinated to protect others crew" | 01:46 |
| de-facto | i think for now we can say that vaccines lower the fatalities per infection ratio (e.g. in UK) and that they were given to over a billion people, so we probably know about even very rare side effects on short term. afaik the expectation is that if longterm side effects would be there they also would show up on short term (especially with such a big number of vaccines given) | 01:47 |
| de-facto | oh i think that course of argumentation would be wrong, "get vaccinated to protect others" should not be the reason, but "get vaccinated because there is an individual positive benefit to risk ratio" | 01:48 |
| whytek | maybe.. but still, looking at a "bigger picture" - dissent is going to be important going forward. | 01:49 |
| LjL | whytek, if you're not going to get vaccinated *anyway*, then in principle i see nothing against volunteering for such a "control group", but i put it in quotes because, again, that association looks like a thinly-veiled anti-vax group. which means that i'm just not convinced they are intending to make a fair assessment of vaccinated vs unvaccinated people and publish an unbiased paper about it that will be taken seriously by science at large | 01:49 |
| LjL | (as to "dissenter" being a good synonym of "anti-vax" and you saying that it's "pretty clear"... i have no words. dissent existed before vaccines were even a concept, so how can the former possibly not be but a wide superset of the latter?) | 01:49 |
| whytek | Ljl, sure.. it does indeed look like that. :) but that doesn't necessarily stop a bunch of us from taking the idea and running with it. | 01:49 |
| LjL | whytek, oh well... less power to you :P | 01:50 |
| whytek | LjL, dissent: "to differ in thinking or opinion, esp. from the majority: " no more no less. | 01:50 |
| whytek | (from wordreference) | 01:50 |
| LjL | okay, that says nothing about vaccines, so what's your point? | 01:50 |
| LjL | anti-vax is specifically "dissent" about vaccines, specifically against taking them | 01:51 |
| LjL | "dissent" is just dissent | 01:51 |
| LjL | saying that they are synonymous is like saying that "thing" is synonymous with "airplane" | 01:51 |
| LjL | because an airplane is a thing | 01:51 |
| LjL | "i think it's pretty clear" | 01:51 |
| whytek | indeed an airplane is a thing, especially in German. :) | 01:52 |
| whytek | what puts me off is being called an "anti-vaxxer" just becasue of dissent :-P | 01:53 |
| LjL | but there are many things that are things, but that are not airplanes | 01:53 |
| LjL | and there are many types of dissent that are not anti vaccines | 01:53 |
| LjL | "dissenter" is simply not at all the same thing as "anti-vaxer". an anti-vaxer dissents on vaccine. maybe they dissent about other things too, but that's pretty irrelevant if we're focusing on vaccines | 01:53 |
| whytek | I 'd see that "vax control group" as not so focussed. | 01:55 |
| whytek | there is a nuch bigger picture.. | 01:55 |
| whytek | which is all about how much top down "control" vs "individual" "freedoms" we are going to have in however society is going to pan out after this. | 01:56 |
| whytek | sorry for so much "quote" but all these concepts are so flimsy | 01:56 |
| LjL | you are free to see it that way, but i don't think it's fair to just take it for granted that just because you see being against vaccines as part of a broader dissent to where you think society is headed, then everyone should accept to say "dissenter" when they mean "anti-vaxer" | 01:57 |
| whytek | BTW, Just came across the Giorgio Agamben paper today.. | 01:58 |
| whytek | again too much generalisations.. | 01:59 |
| LjL | i googled Giorgio Agamben and the first thing that shows up is something titled "Giorgio Agamben, the invention of an epidemic". good start... | 01:59 |
| whytek | It's funny really how i get into conversations since covid started and then people refer to me with phrases like " being against vaccines" | 01:59 |
| whytek | when I never said I was against vaccines. | 02:00 |
| LjL | i'm not referring to you as anything | 02:00 |
| LjL | let's rewind a bit | 02:00 |
| LjL | LjL> um, this looks a bit like a thinly veiled anti-vax association tbh | 02:00 |
| LjL | <whytek> LjL, I prefer the terms "dissenter" to anti-vax | 02:00 |
| LjL | i'm still objecting to this | 02:00 |
| whytek | I assumed Agamben might be well known in Italy. I see i'm wrong | 02:00 |
| LjL | i believe that statement is ludicruous, and i explained why at length | 02:01 |
| whytek | and...? | 02:01 |
| whytek | good for you | 02:01 |
| whytek | :) | 02:01 |
| LjL | if you now think i'm misrepresenting you for calling you against vaccines, then honestly you're misrepresenting the whole discussion | 02:01 |
| LjL | you are the type of person who tries hard to rile others up | 02:02 |
| LjL | don't do that | 02:02 |
| LjL | not here | 02:02 |
| whytek | i didn't know there was A (as in unique and concise") WHOLE discussion. | 02:02 |
| whytek | now, that's misplaced. | 02:03 |
| whytek | the old ad hominem never goes down well, you should know that? | 02:03 |
| whytek | you guys have been doing your damndest here for the last year to get people to go get the covid shots | 02:04 |
| whytek | but i don't call you a "type of person" | 02:04 |
| LjL | get fucked | 02:04 |
| LjL | go back to freenode | 02:04 |
| de-facto | http://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom;Indonesia&byPopulation=yes&cumulative=no&smooth=yes <-- Indonesia spike in both cases and fatalities, UK spike in cases but not so much in fatalities | 02:04 |
| whytek | I'm seriously surprised at that. | 02:05 |
| whytek | I would't have expected it from you. | 02:05 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Isle of Man: +13 cases (now 1684) since 14 hours ago | 02:07 |
| de-facto | Vaccinations: UK 51% (full), 17% (partly), Indonesia 5.4% (full), 7.6% (partly) | 02:08 |
| de-facto | source: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations | 02:09 |
| de-facto | Peaks in cases at both places due to Delta | 02:09 |
| LjL | whytek, it's been a bit of an overwhelming night. apologies for the verbal abuse. i'll try to go be somewhere else now. | 02:09 |
| de-facto | Variants according to https://covariants.org/per-country Indonesia 92% Delta, UK 98% Delta | 02:10 |
| whytek | Ljl, take care. | 02:10 |
| de-facto | no opinions, let the data speak for itself | 02:10 |
| whytek | :) | 02:10 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: (news): Covid: NHS backlog in England could reach 13 million, says Sajid Javid → https://is.gd/DP0cS8 | 02:15 |
| whytek | de-facto, I wish it would. but it's always open to interpretation. | 02:15 |
| whytek | to me, indonesia is missing those tow big massive peaks in the historical data. | 02:16 |
| whytek | I can't ignore that in interpreting an upward trend in cases/fatalities | 02:16 |
| whytek | *two | 02:16 |
| whytek | As for the variants data, what it suggests to me is that the vaccine doesn't work, and hints towards that maybe that stuff that vanderboosh or whatever his name is was saying might be correct. | 02:17 |
| de-facto | what makes you think the vaccine does not work? | 02:18 |
| de-facto | in UK cases go up a lot, fatalities not as much as before their vaccination campaign | 02:20 |
| de-facto | to me that looks like the vaccines seem to have lowered their IFR, even prevented incidence in the older groups with more risk | 02:20 |
| de-facto | they strictly vaccinated from high to low COVID risk | 02:21 |
| whytek | ok if (work == reduce fatalities) | 02:22 |
| de-facto | Indonesia simply did not vaccinate enough of their population to have a significant effect on epidemiological dynamics, their fatalities follow the cases with similar ratio as in their first peak | 02:22 |
| whytek | which is an admirable quality, of course. | 02:22 |
| de-facto | for now with Delta it seems to do that e.g. in UK | 02:23 |
| whytek | then again.. i hear the delta variant is simply less fatal | 02:23 |
| de-facto | i read the opposite | 02:23 |
| de-facto | its more contagious, more reproductive and also more fatal | 02:24 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: CPAC conference shows why America is failing at vaccinating Republicans → https://is.gd/kZiI9b | 02:25 |
| de-facto | but its hard to compare, now with vaccinations and pre-existing infections etc | 02:26 |
| de-facto | hmm this is not really representative but its a hint for Delta being more aggressive in terms of hospitalizations | 02:29 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01358-1/fulltext | 02:29 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.thelancet.com: SARS-CoV-2 Delta VOC in Scotland: demographics, risk of hospital admission, and vaccine effectiveness - The Lancet | 02:29 |
| de-facto | "The Cox regression analysis for time to hospital admission found that S gene-positive cases were associated with an increased risk of COVID-19 hospital admission: hazard ratio (HR) 1·85 (95% CI 1·39–2·47) when compared to S gene-negative cases, after adjusting for age, sex, deprivation, temporal trend, and comorbidities." | 02:29 |
| de-facto | S gene positive = Delta, S gene negative = Alpha in their paper | 02:30 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Netherlands: +6888 cases (now 1.7 million), +1 deaths (now 17907) since 21 hours ago — Gambia: +99 cases (now 6282), +2 deaths (now 185) since a day ago — France: +14 deaths (now 111414) since 21 hours ago — Canada: +367 cases (now 1.4 million) since 21 hours ago | 02:32 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Covid: Woman aged 90 died with double variant infection, in what is one of the first documented cases of its kind. → https://is.gd/shtn0z | 02:36 |
| de-facto | .title https://wordpress.cels.anl.gov/covid-vaccine-efficacy/ | 02:53 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From wordpress.cels.anl.gov: COVID-19 Vaccine Efficacy Page – Vaccine Efficacy Comparisons Made Easy | 02:53 |
| de-facto | .title https://github.com/CarloGraziani/BayesVaccineEfficacy | 02:54 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.07.20244954v1 | 02:54 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.medrxiv.org: A Simplified Bayesian Analysis Method for Vaccine Efficacy | medRxiv | 02:54 |
| Brainstorm | New from Francois Balloux: @BallouxFrancois: I had a stroll through twitter without logging in, to see the accounts that blocked me. An interesting trait of 'zerocovid zealots' is that they don't seem interested in engaging with 'covid denialists' or 'antivaxxers'; all the energy seems focused on fighting 'coronacentrists'. → https://is.gd/yRPDSP | 03:29 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Netherlands: +9459 cases (now 1.7 million) since 23 hours ago — United Kingdom: +32782 cases (now 5.1 million), +34 deaths (now 128524) since 23 hours ago — France: +19 deaths (now 111419) since 23 hours ago — Canada: +445 cases (now 1.4 million) since 23 hours ago | 04:36 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Thailand: +9539 cases (now 336371), +86 deaths (now 2711) since a day ago | 05:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Research Highlights: SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant Resistant to Immune Response → https://is.gd/0gcdlV | 05:02 |
| whytek | nice. nitter link :) | 05:21 |
| whytek | I realise I have no idea what is a zerocovid zealot, or a coronacentrist. denialist and anti-whatever are pretty cleat terms. | 05:22 |
| whytek | *clear | 05:22 |
| whytek | Will the decade of sars-cov2 go down in history as the decade of name-calling? | 05:23 |
| whytek | Why are people so keen to put themselves, and others in finely laid out boxes? | 05:24 |
| whytek | Life itself is not so ordered. | 05:24 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Mexico: +9581 cases (now 2.6 million), +232 deaths (now 234907) since 22 hours ago — Germany: +809 cases (now 3.7 million) since 16 hours ago | 05:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Woman, 90, In Belgium Dies After She Was Infected With 2 Covid Variants At Same Time: Researchers → https://is.gd/Izo1Pb | 06:15 |
| whytek | Ugh this Francois Balloux.. so many very not nice humans around.. | 06:30 |
| whytek | or maybe it's just the way twitter portrays them.. | 06:32 |
| whytek | i guess if i had a choice, i'd no away with twitter first, and then see if the "militant" coronacentrist is still a problem :) | 06:32 |
| whytek | haha "militant" | 06:32 |
| whytek | I wonder what he actually means by that. | 06:33 |
| whytek | MILITANT: strongly aggressive and often combative, esp. in support of a cause | 06:33 |
| whytek | OR | 06:33 |
| whytek | engaged in warfare; | 06:33 |
| whytek | fighting. | 06:33 |
| whytek | (speaking of focussing on the terms of description) | 06:34 |
| whytek | In this case, I'll presume the latter. Prof Balloux is engaged in warfare. | 06:35 |
| whytek | While the 1st casualty of war is indeed truth, it would seem the 1st casualty of covid has been compassion. | 06:51 |
| whytek | ok maybe @BallouxFrancois is not such a bad guy.. I'll blame twitter for er.. being twitter. | 06:58 |
| whytek | he posts this: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/08/new-zealand-children-falling-ill-in-high-numbers-due-to-covid-immunity-debt | 06:58 |
| whytek | (on NPIs) ... | 06:59 |
| whytek | .title https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/08/new-zealand-children-falling-ill-in-high-numbers-due-to-covid-immunity-debt | 06:59 |
| Brainstorm | whytek: From www.theguardian.com: New Zealand children falling ill in high numbers due to Covid ‘immunity debt’ | New Zealand | The Guardian | 06:59 |
| whytek | sub-line:L Doctors say children haven’t been exposed to range of bugs due to lockdowns, distancing and sanitiser and their immune systems are suffering | 06:59 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Turks and Caicos: +6 cases (now 2436) since a day ago — Canada: +9 deaths (now 26428) since 23 hours ago | 07:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Japan to ask duty-free stores to report visitors breaking quarantine → https://is.gd/qdDlXp | 07:18 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Mexico City, Mexico: +3357 cases (now 707845), +25 deaths (now 34911) since 23 hours ago — Zuid-Holland, Netherlands: +2559 cases (now 410511), +1 deaths (now 4289) since 23 hours ago — Noord-Holland, Netherlands: +2119 cases (now 286251) since 23 hours ago — Saint Petersburg, Russia: +1978 cases (now 487921), +102 deaths (now 17392) since 23 hours ago | 07:30 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Australia reports first 2021 COVID-19 death, highest case number → https://is.gd/QTbXbh | 08:00 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for India: +41506 cases (now 30.8 million), +1000 deaths (now 407752) since 23 hours ago | 08:32 |
| Brainstorm | New from Science-Based Medicine: Myocarditis and COVID-19: A Tale of Two Articles: Whether myocarditis is serious or not depends on the symptoms it produces and the damages it does, not on its underlying cause. Those who write about COVID-19 and vaccines should try to be consistent and thorough. The post first appeared on Science-Based Medicine . → https://is.gd/Uv2X7X | 09:03 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Cuba facing worst health crisis of the pandemic → https://is.gd/0f4j6o | 10:06 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Arunachal Pradesh, India: +478 cases (now 39563), +2 deaths (now 188) since 23 hours ago | 10:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Australia reports first 2021 local COVID-19 death, highest case number → https://is.gd/ApSJKY | 11:18 |
| xrogaan | %cases netherlands | 11:53 |
| Brainstorm | xrogaan: In Netherlands, there have been 1.7 million confirmed cases (9.9% of the population) and 17907 deaths (1.0% of cases) as of 4 hours ago. 14.7 million tests were performed (11.8% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Netherlands for time series data. | 11:53 |
| xrogaan | new exponential growth | 11:54 |
| xrogaan | +10000 in 24 hours | 11:54 |
| xrogaan | disable cumulative, enable log scale. Boom. | 11:55 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: (news): Covid-19: Masks still expected to be worn indoors after 19 July - Zahawi → https://is.gd/lhlHAx | 12:10 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Australia: New South Wales confirms first Covid-related death in 10 months → https://is.gd/4i4koq | 12:31 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Japan: +2227 cases (now 818690), +15 deaths (now 14948) since 10 hours ago | 12:41 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): First lawsuit against MRNA vaccine damages had been filed in Israel: For the first time, the Israeli company (Inbel) had been sued for pfizer vaccine damages, the women aged 62 had suffered from Bell's Palsy paralysis, loss of sight, problems in speaking she was hospitalized in the neurological ward at the Emek Hospital in Afula. → https://is.gd/3nFWxj | 13:02 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Libya: +2854 cases (now 204090), +8 deaths (now 3240) since a day ago | 13:06 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Gibraltar: +17 cases (now 4430) since a day ago — Germany: +789 cases (now 3.7 million) since 22 hours ago | 13:31 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Hundreds of Thai medical workers infected despite Sinovac Covid-19 vaccinations → https://is.gd/D6YShT | 13:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Life-style: Stuck at home, students are looking at virtual activities, courses to stay motivated in the pandemic → https://is.gd/P7FLvZ | 14:03 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Nepal: +1237 cases (now 655449), +20 deaths (now 9382) since a day ago | 14:08 |
| joerg | yesterday 5.8 /7d100k today 6.2 = +6.9%/d, ^7 =59% / week, ^8 = factor *42 in 8 weeks (Germany) | 14:41 |
| joerg | this is assuming R_t stays constant now, though last few weeks it gone up linearly, >1 since 2021-07-04 https://i.imgur.com/AHMHTAX.png ~1.2 today = 0.04/d | 14:42 |
| joerg | http://reisenweber.net/et_al/covid/covid19_statistics.htm assuming a (impossible) constant increase of R_t by 0.04/d for next 2 months, we get this https://i.imgur.com/xJUc9eG.png | 14:44 |
| joerg | in 60 days that - obviously oversimplistic - model would result in ~23million new cases per day | 14:45 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Hundreds of Thai medical workers infected despite Sinovac vaccinations → https://is.gd/wjQpDp | 15:05 |
| joerg | but assuming our "great vaccination campaign" would simply compensate for that constantly rising R_t (despite we got 40% who didn't see any vaccination yet) is at least as naive and oversimplistic | 15:11 |
| joerg | even if it would stop R_t increase instantly and from now on we had a R_t=1.2, we still would see ~ 800 * 42 = 33600 new cases per day, in 8 weeks | 15:13 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Unvaccinated Belgian woman contracted two Covid variants simultaneously → https://is.gd/2BxJ4r | 15:15 |
| joerg | if we don't get R_t down to 1.0 right now, we will have to get it to 0.8 in 3 weeks, I don't see that happen | 15:20 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Nearly 40% have Long Covid after 7 months, finds Swiss study → https://is.gd/AUftTT | 15:25 |
| joerg | http://reisenweber.net/et_al/covid/silly-calculation_not_so_silly.ods | 15:43 |
| Brainstorm | New from Scientific American: The Power of Local Celebrities in the Fight against Vaccine Hesitancy: The Rev. Patricia Fears, pastor of Fellowship Baptist Church in Washington, DC, at a public vaccination event on March 16, 2021. → https://is.gd/PDg71o | 16:06 |
| joerg | ((even if it would stop R_t increase)) ok, maybe 10k but the idea is plausible, right? | 16:20 |
| joerg | I really wonder how long it still takes for them to learn they got to adjust their NPI by a PI(D)-controller https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PID_controller approach, not a "we gonna stop all NPIs until we again get too many sick people on ICU, then we revert" | 16:24 |
| joerg | adjust NPI for a R_t=1 if incidences < 10/100k7d; for a R_t<<1 when incidences > 10/100k7d | 16:26 |
| joerg | it's really as simple as that | 16:27 |
| joerg | a 6/100k7d with R_t=1.2 and going up is *much* worse than a 50/100k7d with R_t<=1.0 | 16:41 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): China_Flu: [Israel] Health officials to discuss vaccinating children under 12 against COVID-19 → https://is.gd/JLIjHV | 16:57 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): Sunday 11 July 2021 Update: submitted by /u/HippolasCage to r/CoronavirusUK → https://is.gd/rGXuuJ | 17:28 |
| de-facto | what on earth?! NL got an R=4 ?! | 17:58 |
| LjL | whoa | 18:02 |
| de-facto | https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Netherlands&cumulative=no&miscType=Reff | 18:04 |
| de-facto | R~3.7 for ts = 4 days | 18:04 |
| de-facto | thats like if they were unaware almost R0 for Delta | 18:05 |
| de-facto | wtf | 18:05 |
| de-facto | a rise by an *order of magnitude* in just 10 days?! | 18:06 |
| de-facto | what is happening there? | 18:06 |
| de-facto | UEFA something? | 18:08 |
| de-facto | anyone know why NL got such a gigantic outbreak there? | 18:08 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +16421 cases (now 5.1 million) since 15 hours ago — Faroe Is.: +23 cases (now 868) since 23 hours ago | 18:10 |
| LjL | de-facto, "Sources told broadcaster NOS that cafes and bars and clubs may have to close at midnight again and that the ‘test for entry’ system, which had allowed nightclubs to reopen and ignore social distancing, will be put on hold for all but seated events." https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2021/07/positive-coronavirus-tests-near-7000-as-government-plans-new-measures/ | 18:11 |
| LjL | "Prime Minister Mark Rutte announced new measures on Friday in an attempt to stop the “unprecedented” surge in new cases. These measures focus mainly on nightclubs, music festivals, and restaurants because most of the spread is occurring among young adults." https://bnonews.com/index.php/2021/07/coronavirus-cases-in-the-netherlands-surge-more-than-800-in-one-week/ | 18:11 |
| LjL | so yeah, green pass for events / nightclubs / etc obviously not a great idea | 18:11 |
| de-facto | .title https://coronadashboard.government.nl/ | 18:11 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From coronadashboard.government.nl: Coronavirus Dashboard | COVID-19 | Government.nl | 18:11 |
| LjL | but i'm fully confident we'll ignore this information | 18:12 |
| de-facto | fortunately no spike in hospitalizations yet (but there is a significant delay for those), yet i guess its an outbreak in the young party people (yes cliché i know) | 18:13 |
| de-facto | the variant data seems outdated at their dashboard, but it was alpha before and rising delta, hence i assume its a delta spike, just like everywhere, but a much steeper one | 18:14 |
| de-facto | wow. | 18:14 |
| de-facto | there must have been a cluster or such, this is crazy fast spread | 18:16 |
| de-facto | R~1.3 would have to be expected with Delta, not R~3.7 | 18:16 |
| genera | so, they didnt ask the patients for their age? | 18:16 |
| de-facto | no idea | 18:16 |
| de-facto | http://metrics.covid19-analysis.org/ | 18:18 |
| de-facto | Greece also looks very bad :( | 18:19 |
| de-facto | but Netherlands tops it, this is the most steepest rise i have seen, wtf | 18:20 |
| de-facto | hmm, was there a huge cluster or is this a new variant even? | 18:22 |
| de-facto | i cant believe they would go back with restrictions that far that Delta almost reaches its R0 value | 18:23 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Recent Commits to links:master: Adding Netherlands official tracker ( https://github.com/ljl-covid/links/commit/a0e23f26f9d68e6bb6b5b8a09ff3c479f0ce7f0c ) | 18:23 | |
| LjL | <genera> so, they didnt ask the patients for their age? ← err, of course they know the age of patients. the snippets i pasted also clearly say younger people are involved. they may not have data by age in their dashboard, this is often something that is only found in "deeper links" within healthcare agencies' sites or similar | 18:24 |
| LjL | what i'm more interested in given the magnitude of this spike is how much they're sequencing and whether they've spotted any differences to Delta | 18:25 |
| Brainstorm | New from https://covid19.specops.network : Adding Netherlands official tracker: Maybe the old ArcGIS dashboard, which is slow and seems to mostly duplicate information, should be removed? → https://is.gd/dzQE9X | 18:31 |
| LjL | http://offloop.net/covid19/?default=France;Italy;Spain;Germany&byPopulation=yes&cumulative=no&smooth=yes France and Spain have consistently been pretty terrible at recording jitter-free data | 18:31 |
| LjL | but anyway, i'd say by now it's obvious it's rising or going to rise all over Europe | 18:31 |
| de-facto | of course, we urgently need NPIs restricting this, immediately | 18:34 |
| de-facto | LjL, its a bit strange no other EU country got such a gigantic reproduction number as NL | 18:39 |
| de-facto | granted, the others have rises too, some even with R~2 but none with R~4 | 18:40 |
| LjL | if it really is mostly the nightlife... the country is certainly famous for that | 18:40 |
| LjL | what's the R of greece? | 18:40 |
| de-facto | we need to know the reason for this, at first sight this looks alarming | 18:41 |
| de-facto | Greece got R~2 but with high incidence of daily 2.3k | 18:41 |
| de-facto | with serial interval ts = 4d | 18:42 |
| de-facto | for NL even the reproduction number *itself* looks like an exponential | 18:45 |
| LjL | de-facto, https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=NLD it doesn't look like they have any particular variant other than a steep rise of Delta | 18:48 |
| LjL | although since i don't know how much and how effectively they sequence... | 18:48 |
| de-facto | anyone here reads dutch newspaper? | 18:50 |
| de-facto | any events with large gatherings in end June begin July? | 18:50 |
| de-facto | LjL, yeah that data would suggest Delta, i hope they associate rise in cases with *full* sequences, just to know if anything changed | 18:51 |
| LjL | de-facto, the map doesn't show any particular cluster in any particular places, and the newspaper sources i quoted above seem to be saying that it's believed it's just nightlife in general, after allowing nightclubs etc again with a covid pass | 18:51 |
| xrogaan | de-facto: politicians banked on the summer to relieve restrictions and gain some points. | 18:53 |
| Arsanerit | what will come after omega? | 18:53 |
| xrogaan | Not understanding that the disease spread everywhere and got worse since last year. | 18:53 |
| Arsanerit | how can the reproduction rate grow exponentially? | 18:53 |
| LjL | Arsanerit, silly you, thinking the WHO has a long-term plan | 18:53 |
| xrogaan | So, people got in vacations and whatever and there you have the result. | 18:53 |
| de-facto | Arsanerit, yeah i dont know that but look at the offloop Reff, its an expoential for NL | 18:54 |
| Arsanerit | I can read Dutch. | 18:54 |
| Arsanerit | My parents just returned to The Netherlands from a vacation in several Alpine countries and noted how in The Netherlands almost nobody is wearing masks anymore. | 18:55 |
| de-facto | is it really only due to people partying not caring about distancing? its hard to believe it would spread that astronomically fast just by that | 18:55 |
| Arsanerit | I don't know. | 18:55 |
| LjL | oh i'm so thrilled a country with a curve like that is strolling to the alps for holidays! | 18:56 |
| de-facto | Netherlands: 2021-07-01 833 cases, 10 days later 2021-07-10 10283 cases thats 12-fold increase | 18:57 |
| de-facto | thats beyond crazy | 18:57 |
| Arsanerit | looks like they're already topping the peak of the 2nd and 3rd waves? | 18:57 |
| LjL | if not now, very soon | 18:58 |
| de-facto | if this is representing the real infection dynamics this is a real problem | 18:58 |
| xrogaan | People feel the pandemic is already done and gone maybe? | 18:58 |
| Arsanerit | I don't know the background. The Dutch national broadcaster news website frontpage is not having any covid-19 related news. | 18:58 |
| LjL | better keep it hush-hush | 18:59 |
| xrogaan | it'll hurt the economy :P | 18:59 |
| Arsanerit | people may buy toilet paper again | 18:59 |
| Arsanerit | (they do have a link to "live blog coronavirus news") | 18:59 |
| Arsanerit | https://coronadashboard.rijksoverheid.nl/ results in an error message, it's the page I had bookmarked since earlier | 19:02 |
| LjL | %links netherlands cases | 19:02 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, https://coronadashboard.government.nl/ (Current situation in the Netherlands) is the official dashboard by the Netherlands government, with case data and maps about local cases and restriction levels, plus information on vaccinations; https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/cfc2084c995c40e7ae72254029bf6251 (COVID-19 Dashboard NL) has similar information as an [... want %more?] | 19:02 |
| Arsanerit | Oh in Google Chrome it does work | 19:04 |
| LjL | de-facto, have you noticed that no regions there are marked as in "serious" or "severe", still only "caution" or "concern"? the regional "codes" are slow to change here too (takes a week), but it's quite ludicrous that they wouldn't react at lightning speed in reponse to THIS curve | 19:04 |
| Arsanerit | yesterday in my parent's region 200 people per 100k were tested positively | 19:06 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Italy: +1391 cases (now 4.3 million), +7 deaths (now 127775) since a day ago | 19:06 |
| Arsanerit | Let's see if DE-NRW cases are exploding similarly rapidly. | 19:11 |
| xrogaan | last year, people who went in vacation didn't have to get tested once they got back. | 19:19 |
| xrogaan | Well, gov said they should but it wasn't enforced. | 19:20 |
| LjL | de-facto, have a better look at https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=NLD if you didn't look from 1mm away, zoom into the time since the Delta variant started being sequenced, until now | 19:20 |
| xrogaan | It's a honor thing. | 19:20 |
| LjL | maybe they shouldn't go to vacation abroad in the first place, it's not exactly like *other* countries are spiking so bad right now | 19:21 |
| LjL | but i mean, the government still considers NO region as in a serious/severe situation | 19:21 |
| LjL | i think i agree with de-facto at this point that vaccine/test passes to travel shouldn't be a thing, travel should just be severely restricted period | 19:21 |
| xrogaan | That should have been a thing from the start. Will be hard to implement now that people are pissed off about restrictions. | 19:24 |
| LjL | i know, and also now that they've been promised that vaccine would end it | 19:25 |
| LjL | de-facto, our sequencing looks outright terrible. https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=ITA how can this graph even happen? | 19:26 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Feed: Le congratulazioni del Presidente Draghi al tennista italiano Berrettini ( https://www.governo.it/it/articolo/le-congratulazioni-del-presidente-draghi-al-tennista-italiano-berrettini/17428 ) | 19:41 | |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Two Cases Of Kappa Covid Variant Detected In Uttar Pradesh → https://is.gd/JGP7cl | 19:42 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Unvaccinated Belgian woman contracted two COVID variants simultaneously → https://is.gd/2UkBve | 20:43 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Unvaccinated Woman Co-Infected With 2 Different Covid-19 Coronavirus Variants Simultaneously → https://is.gd/mRSsgY | 21:03 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Cuba: +6923 cases (now 238491), +47 deaths (now 1537) since 23 hours ago | 21:04 |
| joerg | >><LjL> so yeah, green pass for events / nightclubs / etc obviously not a great idea<< that's why we seem determined to copy exactly that now here in Germany | 21:45 |
| xrogaan | If something doesn't more, doing more of it will certainly resolve the issue. | 21:50 |
| xrogaan | doesn't work* | 21:50 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: ‘We are not afraid!’ Cubans take to the streets to demand freedom, food, vaccines. → https://is.gd/vlaLfQ | 22:04 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Pfizer to discuss vaccine booster with U.S. officials Monday: Pfizer plans to meet with top U.S. health officials Monday to discuss its request for authorization of a third dose of its Covid-19 vaccine. → https://is.gd/9sesjz | 22:35 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Canada: +8 deaths (now 26435) since 22 hours ago | 22:37 |
| longstoryshort | The investigation on daily sequential PCR testing of the quarantined subjects indicated the viral load of the first positive test of Delta infections was ~1000 times higher than that of the 19A/19B strains infections back in the initial epidemic wave of 2020, suggesting the potential faster viral replication rate and more infectiousness of the | 23:25 |
| longstoryshort | Delta variant at the early stage of the infection | 23:25 |
| longstoryshort | big if true | 23:25 |
| longstoryshort | .title https://virological.org/t/viral-infection-and-transmission-in-a-large-well-traced-outbreak-caused-by-the-delta-sars-cov-2-variant/724 | 23:25 |
| Brainstorm | longstoryshort: From virological.org: Viral infection and transmission in a large well-traced outbreak caused by the Delta SARS-CoV-2 variant - nCoV-2019 Genomic Epidemiology - Virological | 23:26 |
| longstoryshort | time interval from the exposure to first PCR positive in the quarantined population (n=29) was 6.00 (IQR 5.00-8.00) days in the 2020 epidemic (peak at 5.61 days) and was 4.00 (IQR 3.00-5.00) days in the 2021 (n=34) epidemic (peak at 3.71 days) | 23:30 |
| longstoryshort | they used 7-8 day serial intervals in spring 2020, and around late 2020 or winter 2021 ive seen 5 days used | 23:31 |
| longstoryshort | then in the spring 2021 in an article about largish cluster, i think around 40 - but not sure if it was uk or SA variant, they said half of them had infected other people within 3 days after they got the infection | 23:33 |
| longstoryshort | https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1413423095881347077/photo/1 | 23:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID19 Vaccine Tracker: valerie: Baiya Phytopharm Co Ltd: Baiya SARS-CoV-2 Vax 1 Vaccine → https://is.gd/bs21km | 23:37 |
| longstoryshort | i want a 3 dose vaccine... | 23:40 |
| longstoryshort | ah i misread that, as a 1 dose vaccine | 23:40 |
| longstoryshort | it apparently has only RBD, grown in tobacco leaves. then attached to VLP | 23:49 |
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