| de-facto | hmm interesting in that preprint the Delta actually looks as bad as Beta or even worse | 00:01 |
|---|---|---|
| de-facto | very interesting data in that preprint there LjL ^^ | 00:14 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Lancet (Online): [Correspondence] AZD1222-induced neutralising antibody activity against SARS-CoV-2 Delta VOC: The SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.2 Delta variant of concern (VOC) continues to drive a sharp increase in COVID-19 cases in the UK, with a current doubling time of 3·5–16 days,1 consistent with previous pandemic waves during 2020–21, [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/l6RJXs | 00:33 |
| LjL | i don't like it when you say "interesting" ;( | 00:37 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Switzerland: +2 deaths (now 10885) since 9 hours ago | 00:38 |
| LjL | i don't like that in several ways, including BNT being "significantly higher" than AZ | 00:41 |
| Brainstorm | New from Francois Balloux: @BallouxFrancois: R to @BallouxFrancois: I got flack for "going for the man rather the ball". I understand, and anticipated it. Though, if someone presents themselves as the 'inventor of the mRNA vaccine' and pretend it kills as many as it saves, I was left with no real choice to first quash their claim to fame.9/ → https://is.gd/DmLjQN | 02:05 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for India: +316 deaths (now 396730) since 17 hours ago | 02:11 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid: Masks upgrade cuts infection risk, research finds: Wearing a high grade FFP3 mask can almost entirely protect health workers from Covid, research finds. → https://is.gd/GdehmI | 02:25 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: (news): Covid: Parents 'were treated like criminals' as their son lay dying → https://is.gd/GKdDIL | 02:35 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Vietnam: +630 cases (now 16041) since 23 hours ago — France: +19 deaths (now 111063) since 23 hours ago — Canada: +435 cases (now 1.4 million), +11 deaths (now 26215) since 23 hours ago — Netherlands: +389 cases (now 1.7 million) since 23 hours ago | 02:36 |
| LjL-Matrix | Peter: no, I can't :( | 02:44 |
| pwr22 | What's interesting? | 02:44 |
| pwr22 | Can you see my messages now btw? | 02:44 |
| LjL-Matrix | Peter: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.23.21259327v1 was the interesting thing, for de-facto's definition of interesting which seems to mostly coincide with depressing/scary for me | 02:45 |
| LjL | pwr22, i lied, well, i retroactively lied, I could see your messages exactly 2 seconds after posting that I can't (or at least 2 seconds after that showed up on IRC) | 02:46 |
| * LjL-Matrix uploaded an image: (233KiB) < https://libera.ems.host/_matrix/media/r0/download/matrix.org/qtmxksfrPhMblthzPwWSimRK/lies.png > | 02:47 | |
| LjL-Matrix | with Matrix, time's reversed! | 02:47 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Cyprus: +314 cases (now 75099) since a day ago | 03:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Brazil’s Bolsonaro Linked to Alleged Corruption in Covid Vaccine Buying → https://is.gd/NTUZO3 | 04:28 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Channel Islands: +73 cases (now 4293) since a day ago | 04:40 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +16985 cases (now 4.8 million) since 21 hours ago — France: +22 deaths (now 111074) since 21 hours ago — Netherlands: +280 cases (now 1.7 million) since 21 hours ago | 05:05 |
| tsundere | can virus become infectious from e.g. groceries in front of a fan or shaking clothes? | 05:06 |
| LjL | tsundere, unlikely, but it's really hard to tell for sure | 05:07 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Belize: +52 cases (now 13189) since 3 days ago — Somalia: +41 cases (now 14933) since 2 days ago — San Marino: +1 cases (now 5091) since 26 days ago | 05:30 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: US lawmakers urge Biden administration to provide assistance to India battered by second wave of Covid-19 → https://is.gd/omJGXZ | 05:31 |
| Brainstorm | New from EurekAlert!: How two California hospitals prevented the spread of a deadly fungal infection during the pandemic: In the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, infection preventionists at two Southern California hospitals took extreme measures to stop the spread of a deadly fungus that has emerged in the U.S. and around the world. The two will detail [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/CboxqU | 06:23 |
| Brainstorm | New from EurekAlert!: Young adult cancer survivors reluctant to get COVID vaccines: A new paper in JNCI Cancer Spectrum indicates that many survivors of adolescent and young adult cancers hesitate to obtain COVID-19 vaccinations. → https://is.gd/6eU6MS | 06:44 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Third dose of AstraZeneca vaccine found to boost immune response → https://is.gd/UTxHkm | 06:54 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Three Australian cities lock down in fight against Delta Covid-19 variant → https://is.gd/CH4reA | 07:15 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for England, United Kingdom: +18478 cases (now 4.1 million), +3 deaths (now 112661) since 23 hours ago — Scotland, United Kingdom: +3285 cases (now 274217) since 23 hours ago — Moscow Oblast, Russia: +2722 cases (now 309125), +20 deaths (now 6478) since 23 hours ago — California, United States: +1612 cases (now 3.8 million) since 23 hours ago | 07:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Brazil passes 500,000 Covid deaths, a tragedy with no sign of letup → https://is.gd/ooYhl8 | 07:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Worried by Delta variant, WHO officials urged vaccinated people to keep wearing masks → https://is.gd/fyrQ0W | 07:47 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Mixing Astra and Pfizer shots creates strong immune response → https://is.gd/x2FIbQ | 08:17 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for India: +37566 cases (now 30.3 million), +931 deaths (now 397345) since 23 hours ago | 08:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from Science-Based Medicine: A New Covid-19 Myth?: A correspondent suggested I should have known that the pandemic was over months ago. That's obviously a myth. But where did that idea come from? The post first appeared on Science-Based Medicine . → https://is.gd/w3ZuBt | 09:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Health: High sugar levels post-Covid? Check out these ayurvedic tips → https://is.gd/EljfVH | 10:02 |
| darsie | lol | 10:04 |
| darsie | sorry :) | 10:04 |
| jacklsw | haha what's funny darsie? | 10:08 |
| jacklsw | high sugar level? | 10:08 |
| darsie | ayurveda | 10:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: WHO Says Fully Vaccinated People Should Continue to Wear Masks → https://is.gd/Xn17uc | 10:12 |
| Brainstorm | New from Francois Balloux: @BallouxFrancois: R to @BallouxFrancois: Adenoviruses are double stranded DNA viruses. There are seven species recognised in humans (A-G). They primarily cause 'common colds' in healthy people. Adenoviruses are used as vectors for vaccines (e.g. AZ and Sputnik V COVID19 vaccines).5/https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.28.450199v1 → https://is.gd/SShNGH | 10:23 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Armenia: +116 cases (now 224967), +4 deaths (now 4514) since 23 hours ago — Germany: +226 cases (now 3.7 million) since 21 hours ago | 10:41 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Australia’s top medical body refuses to endorse PM’s announcement that under-40s can get AstraZeneca → https://is.gd/tbmdwI | 11:26 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Georgia: +1194 cases (now 365068), +22 deaths (now 5297) since a day ago | 11:30 |
| Brainstorm | New from BMJ: Covid-19: The countries that have mandatory vaccination for health workers: What would you do to keep your job? It’s a question that healthcare workers in Texas were confronted with in April, when local hospital network Houston Methodist required its staff to be vaccinated... → https://is.gd/S6BSgl | 11:57 |
| genera | oh wow | 11:59 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Fashion: Marc Jacobs’ post-pandemic runway: Parading puffers in patterns → https://is.gd/fYn561 | 12:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Ireland might demand a vaccine to drink inside pubs and restaurants → https://is.gd/Gm47Il | 12:29 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Fiji: +312 cases (now 4144), +4 deaths (now 21) since 21 hours ago | 12:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Health: Boy, 13, diagnosed with rare brain disease post-Covid: Know all about acute necrotizing encephalopathy of childhood → https://is.gd/HzEdlz | 12:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from Scientific American: Health: How Dangerous Is the Delta Variant, and Will It Cause a COVID Surge in the U.S.? → https://is.gd/B7AsSa | 12:50 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: COVID-19: Russia sees record daily death toll with 652 fatalities → https://is.gd/ETFeLN | 13:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from BMJ: Covid-19: Third vaccine dose boosts immune response but may not be needed, say researchers: The interval between the first and second doses of the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine can be extended up to 10 months and a third dose of the vaccine provides a strong boost to the immune response,... → https://is.gd/rrDF4N | 13:32 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Romania: +73 cases (now 1.1 million), +294 deaths (now 33605) since a day ago | 13:41 |
| Brainstorm | New from BMJ: Covid-19: Events pilot finds “no substantial outbreaks,” but experts point to gaps in evidence: Just 28 positive cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection were identified among more than 58 000 people who attended nine large events in April and May included in a pilot programme set up to examine the risks... → https://is.gd/Psgtzy | 13:43 |
| Brainstorm | New from ECDC: Countering online vaccine misinformation in the EU/EEA: This study provides insights for national public health authorities into the factors behind the spread of vaccine misinformation online and the options and capacities needed for responding to it. → https://is.gd/7lwCSc | 13:54 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Health: My Covid diary: ‘First it was the infection; then it turned into stress and anxiety’ → https://is.gd/sTdRgd | 14:04 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Military violated rules by collecting information on Canadians, conducting propaganda during pandemic: report → https://is.gd/dEsX16 | 14:25 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Libya: +452 cases (now 193238) since a day ago | 14:37 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Jersey: +71 cases (now 3456) since 3 days ago | 15:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Pharma: STAT+: Pharmalittle: How Biogen and FDA formed a back channel to push an Alzheimer’s drug; Sanofi to dive into mRNA vaccine development → https://is.gd/3IRE9N | 15:29 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Iran: +12717 cases (now 3.2 million), +142 deaths (now 84127) since a day ago — Nepal: +1728 cases (now 636916), +20 deaths (now 9071) since a day ago — Switzerland: +129 cases (now 702875), +2 deaths (now 10887) since 14 hours ago | 15:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from EMA: What's new: PIP: Opinion/decision on a Paediatric investigation plan (PIP): Recombinant human monoclonal antibody to GM-CSF (GSK3196165), decision type: , therapeutic area: , PIP number: P/0266/2020 → https://is.gd/gqhh1w | 15:50 |
| Brainstorm | New from EuroNews: Europe saw record low numbers of refugees seeking asylum last year: The report released by the European Asylum Support Office noted that the pandemic played a major role in less people seeking refuge. #BrusselsBureau → https://is.gd/rYZp5i | 16:11 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +208 cases (now 3.7 million) since 23 hours ago | 16:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from Retraction Watch: Paper claiming two deaths from COVID-19 vaccination for every three prevented cases earns expression of concern: A study published last week that quickly became another flashpoint for those arguing that COVID-19 vaccines are unsafe has earned an expression of concern. The original paper, published in the MDPI title Vaccines, [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/pVqSD3 | 16:43 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Iraq: +6558 cases (now 1.3 million), +35 deaths (now 17156) since a day ago — Portugal: +1746 cases (now 877195), +6 deaths (now 17092) since 22 hours ago — Saudi Arabia: +1567 cases (now 486106), +15 deaths (now 7804) since a day ago | 17:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from WebMD: Poorly Managed Diabetes Raises Odds for More Severe COVID: A new study shows people hospitalized with diabetes who hadn't been taking their medication had more severe cases of COVID-19. → https://is.gd/awlo9O | 17:56 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Italy: +97 cases (now 4.3 million), +5 deaths (now 127505) since 19 hours ago | 18:02 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Cuba: +3080 cases (now 188023), +17 deaths (now 1270) since 23 hours ago — Myanmar: +1312 cases (now 155697), +11 deaths (now 3320) since 23 hours ago — United Kingdom: +12171 cases (now 4.8 million) since 23 hours ago | 18:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine shows promise against Delta variant in lab study → https://is.gd/qk692z | 18:49 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: EU member states can accept WHO authorised vaccines like Covishield for travel certificate: Official → https://is.gd/trUQNC | 19:11 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Canada: +14 deaths (now 26219) since 21 hours ago | 19:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from Politico: Alcohol: Passports please! Irish will need vaccine proof to enter pub → https://is.gd/7ffE3a | 19:42 |
| Brainstorm | New from WebMD: Acupuncture On Point for COVID stress Relief: For many, acupuncture -- an ancient way of using needles to treat pain -- is the last post-COVID-19 relief method they haven’t already tried. → https://is.gd/kJG8uW | 20:03 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Spain: +7091 cases (now 3.8 million), +40 deaths (now 80829) since 23 hours ago | 20:06 |
| Brainstorm | New from Derek Lowe: @ViralVectorTV: RT by @Dereklowe: Want to highlight that intra-tumoral #mRNA injection (being explored by #Moderna in a Ph1/II trial) can induce a pretty nice abscopal effect in pre-clinical cancer model.https://stm.sciencemag.org/content/11/477/eaat9143 → https://is.gd/J1pHt7 | 20:13 |
| Brainstorm | New from WebMD: Pfizer, Moderna Vaccines Give More Protection Than Known: The researchers found the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines provide robust protection for at least 12 weeks after a second dose and could provide low-level protection for at least a year. → https://is.gd/nHKcyx | 20:24 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Kosovo: +178 cases (now 107749) since a day ago — Singapore: +114 cases (now 62667) since a day ago | 20:31 |
| Brainstorm | New from Bloom Lab: @jbloom_lab: R to @jbloom_lab: Finally, as scientists, we need to continue to do our best to avoid political / opinion-based arguments about #SARSCoV2 origins / early spread, and remain focused on following two questions: (1) How can we get more data? (2) How can we better analyze the data we have? (15/n) → https://is.gd/mxdqui | 20:46 |
| Arsanerit | I've been doubly vaccinated, but remain cautious about travelling. I'm not too worried about getting sick, but I might still get infected and infect my unvaccinated wife. | 20:58 |
| Brainstorm | New from CIDRAP: COVID-19 cut Brazilian life span almost 2 years in 2021: Mary Van Beusekom | News Writer | CIDRAP News Jun 29, 2021 Life expectancy at birth dropped 1.3 years in 2020 and 1.8 years in early 2021 owing to COVID. → https://is.gd/i3RCpK | 21:07 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for France: +33 deaths (now 111088) since 22 hours ago | 21:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from Ars Technica: Science: Juul to pay N.C. $40M and stop targeting kids after igniting vaping “epidemic“ → https://is.gd/LSN425 | 21:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from Scientific American: WHO Urges Vaccinated People to Wear Masks; CDC Still Says No Need: World Health Organization experts urged vaccinated people to keep wearing masks, in contrast with guidance from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. → https://is.gd/obLoY9 | 22:10 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Canada: +27 deaths (now 26232) since 23 hours ago | 22:10 |
| stickbait | anything new and interesting? | 22:13 |
| stickbait | "However, including the results obtained before the pandemic revealed that there was little difference in volume in the same individual after having contracted SARS-CoV-2 and that those that caught the virus had, on average, a smaller thalamus | 22:14 |
| stickbait | smaller thalamus -> more apt to catch the infection. its associated to psychoses, schizophrenia, lack of impulse control prob due to dopamine receptors in thalamus etc | 22:16 |
| stickbait | idk. but just as a counter argument, that it may not cause the loss of grey matter in thalamus, perhaps. more evidence needed imo | 22:16 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Malawi: +188 cases (now 35897), +7 deaths (now 1194) since 22 hours ago | 22:35 |
| lavadonut | you have a small thalamus | 22:36 |
| nixonix | its bigger than average! | 22:40 |
| Brainstorm | New from FDA Press Releases: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: June 29, 2021: The FDA has sent to Congress its Report on Drug Shortages for Calendar Year 2020, which includes a section on the agency’s drug shortage efforts in response to COVID-19. The FDA is also working to implement the drug shortage-related provisions of the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, & [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/yNeOWM | 22:42 |
| nixonix | maybe it was the normal uridine curevac used, instead of smaller amount of mrna. why curevac didnt perform | 22:44 |
| nixonix | kariko has the patent for using pseudouridine, so maybe they couldnt lisence it or tried to save the fees | 22:45 |
| de-facto | i think not using pseudo-uridine limited their acceptable dose to 12µg (in terms of side effects tolerance), hence also their ability to produce s-protein. my hope was they were able to optimize translation frequency and numbers per mRNA molecule so much that this would not limit them, but obviously it did | 22:46 |
| de-facto | then they tested in peru, with all those highly evasion optimized mutants, so probably that also played a role | 22:48 |
| nixonix | they tried to use dsRNA purification to reduce ifn-I response that activates PKR shutting down ribosomes protein synthesis and activates rnase L that then destroys all rna, also single-stranded as in the vaccine | 22:48 |
| de-facto | afaik 3 out of each 4 participants from their HERALD study were from south america | 22:49 |
| nixonix | because in the process of synthesizing mrna there are contaminants, and in this case the essential would be double-stranded rna they tried to get rid off | 22:49 |
| nixonix | btw, kariko and weisman found that too, i think | 22:49 |
| de-facto | double stranded rna would be very bad in terms of side effects afaik | 22:50 |
| nixonix | weissman | 22:50 |
| nixonix | so are those patents preventing another competing mrna vaccine production? or is it just a cost issue | 22:50 |
| nixonix | they prob should get the next chemistry nobel anyway | 22:51 |
| de-facto | i have no idea, but i think they dont have a license for pseudo-uridine | 22:51 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.cell.com/molecular-therapy-family/molecular-therapy/fulltext/S1525-0016(16)32681-8 | 22:51 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.cell.com: Incorporation of Pseudouridine Into mRNA Yields Superior Nonimmunogenic Vector With Increased Translational Capacity and Biological Stability: Molecular Therapy | 22:51 |
| Brainstorm | New from CIDRAP: US COVID-19 cases rise, likely due to Delta variant: Stephanie Soucheray | News Reporter | CIDRAP News Jun 29, 2021 Southern, Western states and areas with low vaccination rates saw the greatest COVID increases. → https://is.gd/uhPErB | 22:52 |
| nixonix | has anyone followed other mrna vaccines, like sanofis, that chinese etc, are they using pseudouridine? or other interesting details revealed about those? | 22:56 |
| nixonix | and i think there was a taiwanese mrna vacc coming too | 22:57 |
| nixonix | https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3135111/taiwan-working-dna-vaccine-covid-19-could-be-stored-room | 22:58 |
| nixonix | maybe there was another one, or i remember wrong | 22:59 |
| nixonix | no it was thailand | 23:01 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/2132263/chula-revs-up-trials-of-mrna-covid-vaccine | 23:01 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.bangkokpost.com: Chula revs up trials of mRNA Covid vaccine | 23:01 |
| nixonix | they just inoculated 12 monkeys, and if all goes well - hmm - they will order a batch for human trials | 23:02 |
| nixonix | sigh, it was 13 monkeys, not 12 | 23:02 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.genengnews.com/covid-19-candidates/chulalongkorn-university-center-of-excellence-in-vaccine-research-and-development-chula-vrc-national-research-council-of-thailand-nrct-and-bionet-asia/ | 23:02 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.genengnews.com: Chulalongkorn University Center of Excellence in Vaccine Research and Development (Chula VRC), National Research Council of Thailand (NRCT), and BioNet-Asia | 23:02 |
| Brainstorm | New from WebMD: Almost All U.S. COVID-19 Deaths Now in the Unvaccinated: Investigators looked at federal data for deaths from COVID-19 in May 2021 and figured out how many were among unvaccinated Americans. → https://is.gd/Jiw6bm | 23:03 |
| nixonix | the designer has worked with weissman | 23:05 |
| nixonix | btw, that just approved alzheimer drug, it was from Biogen. anyone remembers that company? from spring 2020 | 23:06 |
| nixonix | from december: | 23:07 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.nbcboston.com/news/coronavirus/biogen-conference-in-boston-now-tied-to-more-than-300000-coronavirus-cases/2254941/ | 23:07 |
| de-facto | Biogen? | 23:07 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.nbcboston.com: Biogen Conference in Boston Linked to More Than 300,000 COVID-19 Cases, Science Journal Study Suggests – NBC Boston | 23:07 |
| nixonix | as you see, almost random happenings can shape the path of the epidemic the way, not even the best multi-group models couldnt project | 23:10 |
| nixonix | -"nt" | 23:10 |
| de-facto | yeah wait for the soccer celebrations | 23:17 |
| de-facto | i am very glad germany lost | 23:17 |
| de-facto | i heard already 2 out of each 3 cases are male | 23:17 |
| de-facto | in UK | 23:17 |
| dTal | why? | 23:18 |
| de-facto | more soccer celebrations with male participants? | 23:18 |
| de-facto | idk it was a reporter in tagesschau interviewed about wembley stating that | 23:18 |
| nixonix | are german soccer fans allowed to go to russia and bring you indian variant? | 23:19 |
| nixonix | and any mandatory quarantines or something? | 23:19 |
| de-facto | nope | 23:21 |
| de-facto | mandatory quarantine because of mutant area | 23:21 |
| nixonix | in finland they just did it. some of them, but not nearly all, are now in 2 weeks quarantine | 23:21 |
| de-facto | https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Transport/Archiv_Risikogebiete/Risikogebiete_aktuell_en.pdf?__blob=publicationFile | 23:21 |
| nixonix | but it takes time to trace them, and write them the quarantine order. sometimes people get those when theres a day or two left, and sometimes when its past the time | 23:22 |
| nixonix | why do we call it soccer instead of football... i guess because its shorter to type | 23:23 |
| de-facto | Botswana Brazil Eswatini India Lesotho Malawi Mozambique Namibia Nepal Portugal Russian Federation South Africa United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland incl. all British Overseas | 23:24 |
| de-facto | Territories, Isle of Man and the Channel Islands Uruguay Zambia Zimbabwe | 23:24 |
| de-facto | although probably 1 out of each 3 cases already is Delta here | 23:25 |
| de-facto | above are variant areas | 23:26 |
| de-facto | (as are we soon i fear) | 23:27 |
| nixonix | theres been around 4k finnish soccer fans in russia during these matches. more, if you include those russians living here that visited there. for a small country like this, it would be like 62k in germany | 23:28 |
| nixonix | around 8% of them, if the true number was 4k, already found positive | 23:28 |
| nixonix | almost half of them went in buses, because trains dont go there currently! 8h minimum, more when they came back and were stuck in customs, 10h. some of them continued with other buses to their home towns. also the local buses then | 23:31 |
| de-facto | wow | 23:32 |
| nixonix | over half of them didnt even get tested at the border, because lack of personnel, and the health officials then decided to just let them through | 23:32 |
| de-facto | that sounds bad, did it have impact on incidence in .fi? | 23:32 |
| de-facto | incidence on rise since 10 days ago | 23:33 |
| nixonix | yeah, they have been doubled or so during the last few days. more in helsinki area | 23:33 |
| de-facto | https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/finland/ | 23:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from CIDRAP: COVID-19 Scan for Jun 29, 2021: Chinese COVID-19 vaccine in kids COVID-detecting masks Metabolic activators and COVID recovery → https://is.gd/1fQemS | 23:34 |
| nixonix | and they just removed most of restrictions in metropolitan area here, bars open to 1 am etc, lifting travelling restrictions and all. because you know, its a summer and last summer we didnt have many cases... | 23:34 |
| nixonix | and 18% of population already got the second dose (11-12 week intervals used here) | 23:35 |
| de-facto | although finland did very well so far in terms of prevalence | 23:35 |
| nixonix | and theres been talks, by some health officials that are in media daily, that maybe those restrictions should just go, when "risk groups will be vaccinated in 2 weeks" | 23:36 |
| de-facto | yeah i want to strangle them when i hear them say such things | 23:37 |
| de-facto | later they say with big eyes "it was delta" | 23:38 |
| de-facto | now we have the chance to cheaply bring down incidence to zero | 23:39 |
| de-facto | even kill off the last highly selected and very fittest infection chains | 23:40 |
| de-facto | once incidence went up again this will be exponentially more expensive in terms of ressources etc | 23:41 |
| nixonix | not all of them agree though, but one certain female vaccine specialist chief doc from our health institute that media loves, have been touting these ideas recently. lets see whose stance will win | 23:41 |
| nixonix | nowhere in continental europe the cases will be taken to zero. it would require very strict border controls | 23:41 |
| nixonix | and stuff comes mostly with trucks, unlike in iceland, nz, aus | 23:42 |
| de-facto | yeah thats the problem, but still if every country would go for that and we would have strict external border controls with quarantine it would be possible | 23:42 |
| nixonix | but very low cases and easy tracing would be nice | 23:42 |
| Arsanerit | de-facto: Don't you think that UK win will lead to more new cases than German win? | 23:43 |
| de-facto | right now unfortunately yes in UK | 23:43 |
| nixonix | eu doesnt want it. it has criticized finland a lot during this epidemic, demanding to open borders to other schengen countries | 23:43 |
| Arsanerit | What's the point of Germany indicating countries with delta variant as particularly risky when delta variant already dominates in Germany? | 23:44 |
| Arsanerit | de-facto: so then from a pandemic point of view German win might have been better? | 23:44 |
| de-facto | i guess so yes | 23:44 |
| nixonix | it would slow down the spread of indian variant, giving more time for vaccinations. also would help to keep the case numbers down for easy tracing. strict borders | 23:45 |
| nixonix | denmark and norway are doing that | 23:45 |
| de-facto | Arsanerit, hmm well in other areas (e.g. UK) incidence with delta is much higher (order of magnitude), so assuming travelers would mix in with that incidence and bring it back they would seed a lot more new infection chains with the VoC than if they would have stayed inside the country | 23:46 |
| nixonix | danish soccer fans were allowed to go to - was it belgium or holland - just for a short under 12h trip and were in a bubble, to avoid quarantines | 23:46 |
| Arsanerit | indian variant = B.1.617.2 / delta? or something else yet? | 23:47 |
| de-facto | yeah that one | 23:47 |
| nixonix | yep the most common of them here, currently anyway | 23:47 |
| Arsanerit | de-facto: but that's already true if going by regular incidence? | 23:47 |
| de-facto | i guess so | 23:47 |
| de-facto | Arsanerit, we have to wait for the next RKI report, but i assume it will be 35% delta or such | 23:48 |
| de-facto | tomorrow | 23:48 |
| nixonix | are they getting representative sample from every state? | 23:48 |
| de-facto | and those probably will have some delay, how long does it take to sequence those ? | 23:48 |
| nixonix | and without long delays? | 23:48 |
| de-facto | representative yes, not sure about the delays | 23:49 |
| nixonix | it depends. you can do it in a few hours, and for large batches in a day or two, but for some reason it usually takes here 1-2 weeks or more | 23:49 |
| nixonix | they should use those pcr assays recognizing the variants | 23:49 |
| nixonix | french had one too. and british. and that eurofins commercial kit should be available now | 23:50 |
| Arsanerit | It's clearly just a matter of time until it's >90%, unless it's replaced by something more agressive before that happens. But considering that 54% have been vaccinated at least once, including 36% vaccinated twice, what level of restrictions would be needed to keep R<1 when the delta variant dominates? | 23:50 |
| de-facto | https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/DESH/Berichte-VOC-tab.html | 23:50 |
| Arsanerit | sure the vaccinations should contribute to slowing down the spread even of the delta variant; bringing R down should be a function of vaccinations + lockdown; the more vaccinations, the less lockdown needed? | 23:51 |
| nixonix | its also about the existing immunity from infections | 23:52 |
| nixonix | so its easier for brits than most | 23:52 |
| Arsanerit | what's easier for Brits and why? | 23:52 |
| nixonix | uk should decide soon if they will lift the restrictions 2 weeks earlier, that would be the next monday i think | 23:53 |
| Arsanerit | you mean because in UK 48% have been fully vaccinated vs. just 32% in the EU? | 23:53 |
| Arsanerit | What restrictions still exist in the UK considering they can have a full football stadium? | 23:53 |
| nixonix | they have higher infection prevalence than most. and certainly much higher than here, around 10-fold or so prob | 23:53 |
| de-facto | .title https://imgur.com/a/HuIp2AT https://i.imgur.com/W9rXHpf.jpeg src: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/DESH/Bericht_VOC_2021-06-23.pdf?__blob=publicationFile | 23:54 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From imgur.com: COVID Germany: SARS-CoV-2-VoCs B.1.1.7 B.1.351 B.1.617.2 and P.1 maps per district - Album on Imgur | 23:54 |
| de-facto | nixonix, there extracted the maps | 23:54 |
| de-facto | its still in clusters | 23:54 |
| de-facto | but diffusion will flatten it out | 23:54 |
| nixonix | case numbers? how about shares? randomized or those that were picked for sequencing more likely to come from clusters? | 23:56 |
| de-facto | Arsanerit, exactly that i wanted to model, but did not find the time to properly do it yet | 23:56 |
| Arsanerit | de-facto: it sounds complicated to do it properly, maybe someone/s with more time/team/resources have tried? | 23:56 |
| de-facto | i started with fitting a logistic function on the vaccinations in Germany vaccinations(t) = 0.835/(1 + 359 Exp[-t/32.3434]); | 23:56 |
| Arsanerit | Is it irresponsible to go bike touring under the present circumstances? I don't want to bring delta back to my wife, who is still waiting for her appointment for her first dose. | 23:57 |
| nixonix | how is it in berlin? share of 617.2 | 23:57 |
| de-facto | then i wanted to include a simple sinus amplitude of 42% seasonality with maximum in 2st of jan and minimum in 1st of July as multiplicative factor | 23:57 |
| de-facto | finally i wanted to assume exponentials for the variants and fit them on the seasonal vaccine model | 23:58 |
| Arsanerit | good luck with your model, let us know how you validate it and what it say | 23:59 |
| Arsanerit | bye, goodnight | 23:59 |
| de-facto | he is consequent about leaving IRC at 00:00 oclock, impressive | 23:59 |
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