de-facto | wow the new Remdesivir? | 00:04 |
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Brainstorm | New from "Cluster 5" on Wikipedia: Love of Corey at 23:02, 27 November 2020: ← Previous revision Revision as of 23:02, 27 November 2020 Line 1: Line 1: {{short description|Outbreak of a mutated variant of the SARS-CoV-2}} {{short description|Outbreak of a mutated variant of the SARS-CoV-2}} − "'''Cluster 5'''" is the name given to a mutated variant [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/74bzDF | 00:04 |
de-facto | "Honey and Nigella sativa (HNS)" | 00:05 |
de-facto | "HNS resulted in ~50% reduction in time taken to alleviate symptoms as compared to placebo (Moderate (4 versus 7 days), Hazard Ratio [HR]: 6.11; 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 4.23-8.84, P<0.0001 and severe (6 versus 13 days) HR: 4.04; 95% CI, 2.46-6.64, P<0.0001). HNS also cleared the virus 4 days earlier than the placebo group in moderate (6 versus 10 days, HR: 5.53; 95% CI: 3.76-8.14, P<0.0001) and severe cases (8.5 versus 12 days, HR: | 00:05 |
de-facto | 4.32; 95% CI: 2.62-7.13, P<0.0001)." | 00:05 |
de-facto | "HNS further led to a better clinical score on day 6 with normal activity resumption in 63.6% versus 10.9% among moderate cases (OR: 0.07; 95% CI: 0.03-0.13, P<0.0001) and hospital discharge in 50% versus 2.8% in severe cases (OR: 0.03; 95% CI: 0.01-0.09, P<0.0001). In severe cases, mortality rate was four-fold lower in HNS group than placebo (4% versus 18.87%, OR: 0.18; 95% CI: 0.02-0.92, P=0.029). No HNS-related adverse effects were | 00:05 |
de-facto | observed." | 00:05 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Kentucky, US: +5616 cases (now 171755), +36 deaths (now 1871) since a day ago | 00:07 |
de-facto | "Patients were randomly assigned in 1:1 ratio to receive either honey (1 gm/Kg/day) and Nigella sativa seeds (80 mg/Kg/day) or placebo up-to 13 days along with standard care." | 00:07 |
joerg | %cases germany | 00:08 |
Brainstorm | joerg: In Germany, there have been 1.0 million confirmed cases (1.2% of the population) and 16172 deaths (1.6% of cases) as of 19 minutes ago. 27.9 million tests were performed (3.7% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.5% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 2.3% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Germany for time series data. | 00:08 |
joerg | de-facto: WOW!!! >>HNS further led to a better clinical score on day 6 with normal activity resumption in 63.6% versus 10.9% among moderate cases (OR: 0.07; 95% CI: 0.03-0.13, P<0.0001) and hospital discharge in 50% versus 2.8% in severe cases (OR: 0.03; 95% CI: 0.01-0.09, P<0.0001). In severe cases, mortality rate was four-fold lower in HNS group than placebo (4% versus 18.87%, OR: 0.18; 95% CI: 0.02-0.92, P=0.029).<< | 00:40 |
de-facto | wow summarizes it pretty well indeed | 00:41 |
joerg | a naive glance at those numbers make me just go WOW | 00:41 |
de-facto | is there any mechanism that makes those numbers plausible? | 00:42 |
joerg | whatever that is | 00:43 |
joerg | de-facto: there might be | 00:44 |
de-facto | haha and then its in the honey? :D | 00:44 |
de-facto | did they specify that further? | 00:44 |
de-facto | the reddit folks say its not blinded | 00:45 |
joerg | ouch | 00:46 |
joerg | that's why I said >>naive glance<< | 00:46 |
LjL | wait i'm not following, i eat honey and i don't get COVID? is that it? | 00:47 |
LjL | give me an excuse to binge on honey | 00:47 |
joerg | and Nigella sativa | 00:47 |
LjL | no idea what it is but sound enticing | 00:47 |
LjL | oh black cumin, hmm | 00:48 |
de-facto | afaik they gave one branch the real thing and the other empty capsules so thats not really blinded indeed | 00:48 |
hamnox[m] | Those are ridiculous numbers, it's way more likely to get that from a flawed study than from a genuine effect | 00:48 |
LjL | de-facto, lol how lazy is that | 00:48 |
LjL | couldn't they fill them with something, anything nontoxic O.o | 00:49 |
hamnox[m] | LjL you are excused | 00:49 |
de-facto | "The HNS group received honey (1 gm) plus encapsulated Nigella sativa seeds (80 mg) per kg body weight orally in 2-3 divided doses daily for up-to 13 days while the control group received placebo (empty capsules)." | 00:50 |
joerg | https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Echter_Schwarzk%C3%BCmmel | 00:51 |
euod[m] | an empty capsule would be super obvious | 00:51 |
de-facto | so i read that as lightweight empty capsules with only air inside? how would that not be recognizable by the participants? why did they not fill them with nutella? | 00:51 |
euod[m] | you can't even pick them up. | 00:51 |
euod[m] | they just sort of smush. | 00:51 |
LjL | de-facto, fill them with crema novi please, it's way way better than nutella | 00:52 |
LjL | 45% hazelnut, and no random fats | 00:52 |
de-facto | or that | 00:52 |
de-facto | btw still if they did not blind properly it does not mean that there is no effect, in fact thats causative uncorrelated | 00:53 |
LjL | or you could just fill them with something pleasant but mostly inert, like honey | 00:53 |
LjL | maybe add a spice, like black cumin, to make it feel like a drug | 00:53 |
LjL | that should make a good placebo | 00:53 |
euod[m] | generally speaking just taking a pill is very effective at resolving any symptoms. | 00:53 |
euod[m] | better if they're yellow pills, not sure why but there's study showing that. | 00:53 |
LjL | euod[m], for me, it's effective at giving me side effects ;( | 00:53 |
LjL | radioactive pills? | 00:54 |
euod[m] | no, just yellow placebo pills. | 00:54 |
de-facto | LjL, you are radioactive, did you know that? | 00:54 |
ryouma | 1) why is az spiking but r eff around 1 by presumably the same data set? | 00:54 |
euod[m] | it's more effective if the placebo is injected though, and even better if given as an IV. this effect remains even if the patient knows it's just saline and is told it is a placebo- assuming they know that placebos tend to work. | 00:55 |
ryouma | 2) also, has anybody seen any 2 jurisdictions that have such similar curves as az and fl? http://www.offloop.net/covid19/?default=Arizona;Florida&byPopulation=yes&testsRate=yes&cumulative=no&smooth=yes&miscType=Reff&miscPeriod=7&miscSource=Deaths&legacy=no | 00:55 |
LjL | de-facto, yes but the others didn't know yet :( | 00:55 |
euod[m] | LjL: right, so you have a nocebo effect with medications? | 00:55 |
LjL | euod[m], probably | 00:55 |
LjL | fits with my general pessimistic outlook | 00:55 |
ryouma | i am skeptical of placebo research. i am not sure it is done correctly. | 00:55 |
euod[m] | the cute thing is that it doesn't matter. you'll still feel better if you know that placebos make you feel better with no method of action :P | 00:56 |
ryouma | or interpreted correctly | 00:56 |
de-facto | i hope they do investigate that honey + black cumin further, maybe they can identify an easy to produce molecule that really got potent antiviral properties from it? | 00:56 |
LjL | ryouma, i think i've seen jurisdictions that look like that, but i've seen so many graphs lately... maybe Israel was a bit like that? i think that looks like a curve of a state that has taken some measures but mostly lazy ones | 00:56 |
joerg | ryouma: yeah, not properly double-blinded ;-D | 00:57 |
LjL | actually Israel looks different | 00:57 |
LjL | euod[m], i think it's not quite like that, i don't really believe that placebos change "hard" parameters except insofar as the psychology is able to change them, and i don't think the psychology is actually able to kill cancer cells or such. you feel better, but you're still dying. of course not all conditions mean you're dying, so maybe sometimes a placebo could have its place(bo), assuming you get past ethical hurdles | 00:59 |
joerg | I think that HNS stuff is worth getting more studies, not really problematic to run that study anywhere, on any patient cohort | 00:59 |
ryouma | i saw one study where they gave a glass of water to participants and then a questionnarire. they said it contained lsd. the questionnaire was binary questions like do you feel dizzy. i think it is perfectly plausible and normal that controls would introspect more if asked that question, and then search for any tiny signs. even without pleasing-the-investigator bias, that could produce the same result that the ac | 00:59 |
ryouma | tive group would answer. but of course they said it was magical. | 00:59 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, is "positive test rate" new? | 00:59 |
LjL | i'd say i feel dizzy just because i feel dizzy most of the time | 01:00 |
LjL | ryouma, they should do that research with a control group *chuckles* | 01:01 |
LjL | namely, give other people a glass of water | 01:01 |
LjL | tell them "it's a glass of water" | 01:01 |
LjL | then give them the questionnaire :P | 01:01 |
ryouma | ever since the greeks or before the mind body woo stuff has confused everybody and everybody wants to believe that this thing exist out there called the mind that can control stuff inthe body. then you add all sorts of dark rhetoric, fallacies, biases, and sloppiness and you get pseudoscience. | 01:01 |
de-facto | hmm and they talk a lot about "honey" and its antiviral and antibacterial properties, unfortunately they dont tell *which* honey they used :( | 01:02 |
LjL | i think sciencebasedmedicine had a few rants on the "exaggerations" of placebo effects | 01:02 |
LjL | i think it was sbm anyway | 01:02 |
de-facto | that might be quite essential since it contains the molecules from the plant where it was collected from | 01:02 |
LjL | i probably read https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/placebo-myths-debunked/ and some others | 01:02 |
de-facto | why dont they try it in a petri dish then? surely no placebo there | 01:03 |
de-facto | they just need an S3 lab for that | 01:03 |
LjL | actually sciencebasedmedicine has a LOT of such articles on placebo and its misunderstandings | 01:03 |
ryouma | of course you inject saline into mice as a placebo control against the active substance, to make sure injecting and handling and blood volume increase and so on do not cause issues. that is not the same thing as is usually claimed and conflated with that. | 01:03 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: Oxford, WHO scientists say more data needed on AstraZeneca's Covid vaccine trials: More data is needed from AstraZeneca's Covid vaccine trials beyond what was presented in a press release, experts from the WHO and Oxford University said. → https://is.gd/5ZbGA1 | 01:04 |
LjL | ryouma, well that's one extreme. then there is giving placebo to people to actually control for any psychological effects, potentially including psychology-influence-body, but when you're doing research *with* placebo (as opposed to *on* placebo), you don't care what the placebo is or isn't able to cause, you just use that as a baseline for effects and side effects | 01:05 |
ryouma | i tried maluca honey or whatever it is called for a boil. it did nothing. | 01:05 |
ryouma | i see nothing wrong with this arm --- 17:01 <LjL> tell them "it's a glass of water" | 01:06 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Uruguay: +186 cases (now 5303) since a day ago | 01:07 |
LjL | anyway, in italy, pharmacies sell legalized placebo, and you can detract (or deduct?) it from taxes | 01:07 |
LjL | france goes further and directly prescribes you placebo with public healthcare | 01:08 |
LjL | does it "work"? it sure isn't free | 01:08 |
LjL | but that makes sense because there are STUDIES showing that expensive placebo works better than cheap placebo | 01:08 |
LjL | (or was that wine? anyway, it probably goes for placebo too!) | 01:08 |
hamnox[m] | This talk of honey is reminding me of my cold remedy cocktail. Vodka, honey, and an electrolyte packet. Finish off with a zinc lozenge. | 01:08 |
LjL | i bet the vodka was doing most of the work | 01:10 |
hamnox[m] | Yeah | 01:10 |
ryouma | oh electrolyte. i thought you were goign to say electrolysis or something. | 01:10 |
hamnox[m] | I'm banned from doing chemistry when I'm sick | 01:11 |
hamnox[m] | T_T | 01:12 |
ryouma | perhaps this is a lag? 16:54 <ryouma> 1) why is az spiking but r eff around 1 by presumably the same data set? | 01:18 |
LjL | ryouma, the latest data point for Florida is "0", that might throw the calculations a bit off | 01:20 |
LjL | but it doesn't explain arizona i guess | 01:20 |
ryouma | i mean az. az is spiking and r eff is yues | 01:20 |
LjL | but it's showing a rising doubling time for both states | 01:20 |
LjL | rising doubling time means lowering R | 01:21 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Kenya: +1554 cases (now 81656), +14 deaths (now 1441) since a day ago — France: +13089 cases (now 2.2 million) since 23 hours ago — Netherlands: +5203 cases (now 510046) since 23 hours ago — Belgium: +183 cases (now 567715) since 20 hours ago | 01:21 |
tinwhiskers | LjL: no, but it's just on the covidly data so you may not have seen it a lot. | 01:21 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, uh... i hadn't selected "alternative data source", in fact i think it went away when i did | 01:22 |
ryouma | doewe confirmed mean confirmed cases or confirmed deaths | 01:22 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, it appears for these US states, doesn't appear for say Italy (where instead, you have the number of tests *on Covidly*) | 01:22 |
LjL | ryouma, cases | 01:22 |
LjL | since the other option is deaths :P | 01:22 |
LjL | it should probably say "Cases" or "Confirmed cases" | 01:23 |
tinwhiskers | Oh. Umm... Ok :-) | 01:23 |
joerg | ryouma: I think there are several studies proving placebo effects that can get measured scientifically, from blood pressure even down to immune response | 01:23 |
LjL | "confirmed" is used a lot for cases in the actual datasets | 01:23 |
LjL | joerg, well blood pressure is easy, you can probably control that yourself by just thinking about the right subjects! | 01:24 |
joerg | anecdotal cases even report of boils caused by a coin placed on the arm of test subject that only was made plausible to the test subject to be glowing hot | 01:24 |
ryouma | joerg: well specific things will be affected by e.g. stress. like that white coat blood pressure measurement thing. but the belief even among those who know better seems to be that there is a general ability to control the body, as if darwinism built in mechanisms for every parameter in the body (for no reason that would affect darwinian reproduction), but science has not discovered them yet. | 01:25 |
tinwhiskers | Placebo effects are commonly measured. That's why it's the placebo *effect*. | 01:25 |
tinwhiskers | Placebo can be very powerful and is a fascinating topic. Even if you're told you got the placebo you can still get a positive effect knowing you got nothing. | 01:26 |
ryouma | or maybe you were just dehydrated | 01:26 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, i found that particular study very misleading iirc | 01:26 |
LjL | the *statement* that was said to the participants was misleading | 01:26 |
tinwhiskers | There's a bunch of studies | 01:26 |
LjL | someone with culture would probably realize what they meant: "this is nothing" | 01:26 |
LjL | but it was stated in a way that could easily make someone still think there was something beneficial in it | 01:27 |
LjL | (which is technically correct, if you count the self-fulfilling prophecy!) | 01:27 |
tinwhiskers | Ok, well that's not the case in all placebo studies | 01:27 |
LjL | they didn't literally say "this is just a sugar pill" | 01:27 |
LjL | anyway, personally on this subject i recommend reading all the various articles on sciencebasedmedicine.org | 01:27 |
LjL | i think you can't go too wrong with it, it's a decent place for critical thinking, even if you end up disagreeing | 01:28 |
ryouma | there are fields in which literally the therapy is to train the subject to answer a questionnaire that they feel better. then they state that the therapy worked. | 01:28 |
tinwhiskers | Lunch... | 01:29 |
LjL | soft endpoints are soft | 01:29 |
ryouma | but can earn knighthoods and awards and careers for those who do that | 01:30 |
joerg | anyway, if the difference in strength of placebo effect between an empty capsule and a capsule filled with black cumin makes a 4 fold difference in lethality, I'm already more than happy to eat more of that nioce spice. And honey, hey I should eat more honey just because... I WANT to :_D | 01:31 |
LjL | lethality is a hard endpoint. it's generally something that if it's affected by the placebo effect, researchers are quite surprised | 01:32 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Idaho, US: +1997 cases (now 98500), +14 deaths (now 909) since 2 days ago | 01:35 |
de-facto | again, if they would put that into an infected cell culture they should be able to see the antiviral effects on a cellular level. surely in a human body there is more to it (like interactions with immune system and other mechanisms and cell types) but why not start small in a lab and then go step by step back a human trial? | 01:37 |
LjL | "Nigella sativa is a miraculous remedy with a wide range of pharmacological properties. Its seeds have been mentioned as the cure for every disease except death by the last prophet of Islam." | 01:39 |
LjL | https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1876034120307097 | 01:39 |
LjL | why is bullshit like that allowed to end up on a scientific paper? | 01:39 |
LjL | it's not about whether it is useful for something or not | 01:39 |
LjL | "miraculous"? that's not science | 01:40 |
LjL | and sure enough you go on with talking about it was touted as such by the prophet of Islam | 01:40 |
tinwhiskers | I think the placebo effect really comes down to mindfulness or positive thinking - merely thinking about your problem in a positive light can be very beneficial. Acupuncture, and prayer therapy probably work this way for example. | 01:40 |
LjL | call me biased against a religion, but that alone gives me more than reason enough to doubt this study even if there is nothing suspicious *inside the study* | 01:40 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, for some definition of "work" that is, in most cases with acupuncture at least, "low to very low evidence of benefit for anything" | 01:41 |
de-facto | e.g. (speculation) if they would find a simple molecule like thymoquinone or flavonoid in the honey itself they probably could see simple effects like antiviral properties, in contrast to more complex effects such as interactions with the hosts immune system and anti-inflammatory properties | 01:42 |
de-facto | %title https://ejmo.org/10.14744/ejmo.2020.36102/ | 01:42 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From ejmo.org: IN Silico Approach of Some Selected Honey Constituents as SARS-CoV-2 Main Protease (COVID-19) Inhibitors | 01:42 |
tinwhiskers | If people are told they are being prayered for they have a better outcome, but those that are prayered for but are not told do not. Prayer has no effect but thinking people are thinking of you does. | 01:42 |
tinwhiskers | LjL: yeah, very little as in about the same amount as expected by placebo | 01:42 |
tinwhiskers | i.e. it doesn't work except for placebo effects | 01:42 |
tinwhiskers | Arguably that's good enough since it's better than nothing | 01:43 |
tinwhiskers | Magic | 01:43 |
tinwhiskers | Oh yeah, those that are told people are praying for them but nobody is also has the same effect as those that are being prayered for. | 01:44 |
de-facto | if there was nothing else than placebo we cant gain anything from all of this, but on the other hand if there is some pharmaceutical effect (quite likely because of the other reported antiviral properties) then there possibly might be a mechanism hidden in there that could be effective and once understood maybe potentiated with a synthetic enhancement in molecular docking hence improved molecule or such (as they did to that with the | 01:44 |
de-facto | nanobodies too) | 01:44 |
tinwhiskers | *and told | 01:45 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, i think i experience a nocebo effect with that one too. i am quite allergic to "thoughts and prayers" folks | 01:45 |
LjL | i see that a lot with earthquake tweets | 01:45 |
tinwhiskers | Yeah, there's that possibility too :-) | 01:45 |
LjL | Americans are especially likely to go "my thoughts and prayers go to the people of X. By the way, where is X? What is X? Is it a country?" | 01:45 |
tinwhiskers | Yeah, that's probably just going to make me angry. | 01:46 |
LjL | (i don't mean *all* americans or even *most* americans, don't get mad. i'm just saying i see it a lot with americans) | 01:46 |
tinwhiskers | However it really can help some people, much as it's a load of puckey due to the magic of placebo. | 01:47 |
tinwhiskers | I missed an important comma there... | 01:47 |
tinwhiskers | The thing with acupuncture is there's no useful way of doing a blind study since it's really obvious if you're getting placebo... | 01:50 |
tinwhiskers | Oooh storm. Gotta go | 01:50 |
LjL | well i was kinda prayed for once during something resembling a panic attack or a bout of despair, it kinda worked | 01:50 |
LjL | take care | 01:50 |
LjL | oh too bad you're gone | 01:52 |
LjL | <Brainstorm> New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Chinese scientists claim Covid came from India or Bangladesh as they try to shift blame from Wuhan in bombshell report → https://is.gd/jxtCuL | 01:52 |
LjL | it's the Sun, mind | 01:52 |
joerg | give a flying F about https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Echter_Schwarzk%C3%BCmmel for now. Honey is KNOWN to have a plethora of actually pharmacologically active and efficient substances, cause the bees "want it" to conserve all winter | 01:52 |
LjL | and despite being the Sun, it's actually better than other newspapers in that it actually LINKS TO THE STUDY FFS, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3724275 | 01:53 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Chinese scientists claim Covid came from India or Bangladesh as they try to shift blame from Wuhan in bombshell report → https://is.gd/u6A5wZ | 01:53 |
LjL | "Instead, they used a new method which involves counting the number of mutations in each viral strain. | 01:54 |
LjL | They claim that the strains with the most mutations have been around for a longer time, and those with fewer mutations are closer to the original ancestor of Covid-19. | 01:54 |
LjL | The paper claims that the least mutated strain was found in eight countries: Australia, Bangladesh, Greece, the US, Russia, Italy and the Czech Republic." | 01:54 |
LjL | this reminds me of *cough* :P | 01:54 |
tinwhiskers | Most honey has very little or no beneficial effect but Manuka honey is rather special and fetches huge money. It really does work. | 01:54 |
tinwhiskers | It's rated by its UMF (lamely, unique Manuka factor) and high UMF honey is outrageously expensive. Tastes like crap though imo. | 01:55 |
joerg | LjL: how do they define "the original strain"? do mutations have a oneway sign on them? | 01:56 |
LjL | joerg, you walk back the phylogeny tree | 01:56 |
LjL | in itself that's not an absurd assertion... | 01:56 |
LjL | it's kinda what tinwhiskers always wanted to see from the studies i presented about Italian sewers etc, and i couldn't provide | 01:57 |
LjL | (not fully, anyway) | 01:57 |
tinwhiskers | Oh, neat | 01:57 |
joerg | phylogeny tree? | 01:57 |
tinwhiskers | Mutations occur over time and by looking at which mutations a particular strain has you can place it in a family tree | 01:58 |
joerg | sorry for being ignorant. when I got cgtat and cgtcg which one is original and which is the derivative? | 01:58 |
tinwhiskers | Aka phylogenetic tree | 01:58 |
tinwhiskers | You need to look at s much bigger picture than a few bases | 01:59 |
tinwhiskers | The whole sequence really. Mutations are of course heritable so any descendants will have common changes to their ancestors | 02:00 |
tinwhiskers | Sometimes mutations can undo a change too, but that is usually still obvious by context of the entire sequence. | 02:01 |
joerg | make that ([cgat]*)t([cgat]*) and \1a\2 then | 02:01 |
joerg | how can you tell it mutated TO a and not FROM a TO t | 02:02 |
tinwhiskers | You can't say anything from that | 02:02 |
LjL | joerg, i don't understand the mathematics/statistics of it, but to put it in a practical way... how can NextStrain have a *tree* of genomes? a tree implies a timeline | 02:03 |
joerg | for a star you know the hub is origin and spikes are derivatives. But if you got TWO stars whose hubs are one mutation apart, I'd guess you impossibly can tell which was first and which came later as a child of first | 02:04 |
joerg | actually you can transform literally every logic tree in a way so an arbitrary element of that tree becomes root | 02:06 |
tinwhiskers | Start with 30,000 bases. Now make one change. All the offspring of that have the one change. You now have strain A and B. If another change occurs in strain A it's clear it's from that branch because it doesn't have the mutation from the B strain. | 02:06 |
tinwhiskers | Time is a component as well | 02:06 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Mauritania: +136 cases (now 8424), +1 deaths (now 172) since a day ago | 02:07 |
joerg | actuall "top" and "bottom" are no inherent properties of the tree structure, unless you define them by means outside the tree element relations | 02:08 |
tinwhiskers | Of course. | 02:08 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, i think this paper makes both the phylogeny and the "time" claim. phylogeny by looking at strains in other places than Wuhan (yes, including Italy) and concluding they are earlier, and time by noting that in India, their supposed place of origin, there is the most variety of strains... which is what you'd expect if you "just give it time" | 02:08 |
tinwhiskers | Interesting | 02:09 |
LjL | (incidentally it also tends to be true in historical linguistics: the place where a language originated tends to have the most variety of dialects, or daughter languages) | 02:09 |
tinwhiskers | Yeah | 02:09 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, i posted it on r/covid19 so we may get some opinions. it may be trash but it's a valid preprint so it shouldn't break their somewhat strict rules | 02:09 |
joerg | IOW when you got a "star" whith a hub and 40 spikes, each one (and only one) of those spikes could be the hub of an earlier star | 02:09 |
tinwhiskers | Tbh, I missed which link it was. Would you mind? | 02:10 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, sure, i'll give you the r/covid19 link directly in totally not a shameless plug :P https://np.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/k2doss/the_early_cryptic_transmission_and_evolution_of/? | 02:10 |
tinwhiskers | Thanks | 02:10 |
LjL | but the paper is https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3724275 | 02:10 |
LjL | ""owever, one question is whether it is truly the first SARS-CoV-2 strain responsible for infecting human host. If it was not, then the results in some studies could be devious." | 02:13 |
LjL | i don't think they mean devious... | 02:13 |
aggi | hypothetical question: assumption, if hospitalized patients or any other parts of a population were tested for, maybe, HPV virus, how then did the cv19 and related pandemic arguments constructed in principle differ from that hypothetical approach? | 02:13 |
tinwhiskers | ... | 02:14 |
joerg | "earlier" and "later" are not encoded in mutations AIUI | 02:15 |
tinwhiskers | joerg: no but the time of infection and isolation of the sample occur at a time | 02:15 |
joerg | sure | 02:15 |
tinwhiskers | That helpsb place it but is not essential | 02:15 |
LjL | "Our results have proven that Wuhan is impossible to be the original place of human-to-human SARS-CoV-2 transmission. " | 02:16 |
joerg | it's not a proof of duration the variant exists, beyond it obviously existed AT LEAST since it first been observed | 02:16 |
tinwhiskers | Well it can't be an ancestor to one that was isolated previously | 02:17 |
Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid: Free Vitamin D pills for 2.5 million vulnerable in England: There is no evidence that it protects against Covid-19 but it could boost the health of the vulnerable. → https://is.gd/r11Efh | 02:17 |
joerg | IOW the only >>proof that Wuhan is impossible to be the original place<< is "it been seen at location X *earlier* than in Wuhan | 02:17 |
tinwhiskers | What they mean is "strong evidence" we don't do proof. | 02:18 |
LjL | joerg, well, there is such evidence, like from the Italian study i linked. of course, it can be discounted if one believes anything but Wuhan-origin is extremely unlikely. | 02:18 |
joerg | which evidence? | 02:19 |
joerg | sorry I really don't get it | 02:20 |
LjL | oh lord | 02:20 |
LjL | this https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0048969720331727 | 02:20 |
LjL | https://np.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/juabvy/unexpected_detection_of_sarscov2_antibodies_in/gcurb7w/ | 02:20 |
LjL | wasn't this previously free-access | 02:21 |
joerg | sorry, what exactly in this study says "Wuhan was the father of all stems" or the opposite. How is it even related? | 02:21 |
LjL | ... | 02:22 |
LjL | 18<25joerg18> IOW the only >>proof that Wuhan is impossible to be the original place<< is "it been seen at location X *earlier* than in Wuhan | 02:22 |
LjL | it *has* been seen at locations Milan and Turin earlier than in Wuhan | 02:23 |
LjL | that's what the paper claims | 02:23 |
joerg | excuse my ignorance, I simply don't see it | 02:23 |
LjL | by looking at previous wastewater samples | 02:23 |
LjL | it's not ignorance, it's... you're not reading. you can say this study is rubbish, but if you say it's not relevant to what you're saying you're not calling yourself ignorant but myself irrelevant | 02:23 |
joerg | ooh, so where is the date in that study? sorry it's quite long and I had thought they would list such fact more prominently | 02:24 |
LjL | November 2019 | 02:24 |
joerg | wow | 02:24 |
LjL | as i stated more briefly in the reddit page i linked | 02:24 |
LjL | which is https://np.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/juabvy/unexpected_detection_of_sarscov2_antibodies_in/gcurb7w/ | 02:24 |
LjL | that also includes the sequences (and links to them) | 02:24 |
LjL | S-protein and ORF1ab have been sequenced | 02:25 |
LjL | the rest, to my knowledge, has not been sequenced | 02:25 |
joerg | I see. Thanks for zour patience | 02:25 |
LjL | you often switch between QWERTZ and QWERTY, don't you | 02:25 |
joerg | yeah | 02:25 |
LjL | must be a pain, i'm glad the italian keyboard is just QWERTY plus accents (it might not have been - typewriter keyboards were different) | 02:26 |
LjL | (and early Mac keyboards too) | 02:26 |
aggi | what had justified the univariate timescale-cv19spreading approach instead of the hypothesis of dormant undetected infections which may become symptomatic and detectable by tests fluctuation seasonal | 02:27 |
aggi | ly? | 02:28 |
LjL | not much, i think, based on the patterns of semi-dormancy we see now in the EU and some other places that may be related to lockdowns but not quite clearly so | 02:31 |
LjL | that's partly why i don't discount the Italian study, nor whatever conclusions Chinese researchers may want to make to show it originated *anywhere but in China* | 02:31 |
LjL | it's fair game | 02:31 |
joerg | plausible | 02:34 |
joerg | I thought chinese based their "apologetic" paper merely on sequencing and mutation tree without including dates of first sight | 02:35 |
LjL | well the earliest Italian sequences they look at are from March | 02:36 |
LjL | so they are probably from Italians, not the initial Chinese couple that got sick here | 02:36 |
LjL | so i don't know, i really don't have the tools to dissect their paper and decide on its merits | 02:36 |
joerg | with a second detection that early, there's quite some possibility for plausible explanation leading to different conclusions that "originated in Wuhan" | 02:37 |
LjL | but i do think the fact it was found in wastewater samples in Italy, Spain, and Brazil *before* 2020 shouldn't be discounted and is a bit too compelling to be all attributed to false positives | 02:37 |
LjL | i think the studies in Spain and Brazil did *not* attempt to sequence it, though, at least i found no mention of sequencing in them. the Italian one sequenced it partially | 02:38 |
joerg | obviously | 02:38 |
tinwhiskers | Yeah, I don't think false positives can explain that away. | 02:38 |
joerg | rebalance tree ;-D | 02:38 |
LjL | it doesn't rule out that it still started in China and spread to Italy and the whole thing just went undetected for longer than we thought | 02:38 |
LjL | which i think is possible, because we don't fully understand what makes this virus's R fluctuate so much | 02:39 |
joerg | in China or any arbitrary other place | 02:39 |
LjL | well, the first place where it became "big" enough to be an epidemic may still be a prime candidate, but yeah | 02:39 |
aggi | which are? | 02:41 |
joerg | massive lung issues, fatigue, hard breathing | 02:42 |
joerg | low spO2 | 02:42 |
LjL | joerg, i'm sorry. how low spO2, and what lung issues, anything diagnosed? did you have pneumonia? | 02:44 |
joerg | "ADHS" alike symptoms, at least perceived as such | 02:44 |
joerg | well -H | 02:45 |
LjL | joerg, err, is that a German acronym? i can't find what that means | 02:46 |
joerg | LjL: It wasn't diagnosed back when. Now my spO2 is just a tad above "get O2" | 02:47 |
LjL | joerg, which means... like 90%, or like 95%? | 02:47 |
LjL | and what are you measuring it with? my pulse oximeter is very happy to go down to less than 95% even when another pulse oximeter doesn't | 02:47 |
joerg | I can't recall... which might be another symptom | 02:47 |
LjL | do you have a pulse oximeter now? | 02:48 |
LjL | you should have one. people should have one. they are cheap (except for when Amazon is out of them) | 02:48 |
joerg | doc measured it. My Note9 pulse oximeter is absolute crap | 02:48 |
joerg | got a CT a\nd doc frowed a lot on it | 02:49 |
de-facto | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erd%C5%91s_number | 02:49 |
LjL | :( | 02:51 |
LjL | joerg, the Note's oximeter is reflective, so it cannot be as good as a transmissive one. keep in mind that in normal times, you can get a decent pulse oximeter for around €20 on Amazon (right now they have become expensive again on amazon.it, though, after the second spike started) | 02:51 |
joerg | LjL: yeah, Note9 oxi is a fake; it's ok for pulse but not for oxi. Then, even if I know my spO2, what are the consequences to take from that? | 02:53 |
LjL | joerg, not much, unfortunately. doctors will probably shrug and tell you "let's hope you get better". if you're lucky, you may get some pulmonary rehabilitation. but... why don't you try to get a COVID antibody test, if you think that might have been it? | 02:55 |
LjL | (although yes, it may show negative after 12 months) | 02:55 |
LjL | and i suppose if your oxygen is really low, you will... get oxygen :\ | 02:55 |
joerg | I know oned time a few more weeks ago my doc tested spO2 with a transmissive IR pulse oxi and it was dunno 90 or 88 or whatever, I immedeately pulled out the Note9 and measured again: 98 | 02:55 |
LjL | yeah, it's not completely fake, in the sense that there *is* an SpO2 sensor in there, but it's not reliable | 02:56 |
LjL | (in other words it flashes visible light but also IR light, just like an actual pulse oximeter. i think they started with the S6) | 02:56 |
bigbertha[m] | =( | 02:56 |
joerg | there~s a service menu you can access by dialing *#000# or whatever, and even this genuine Samsung "fab" maintenance and service and diagnostics thing thinks the pulse oxi is out of allowable range | 02:59 |
LjL | oh | 02:59 |
LjL | then it may be more fake than other Note 9s :P | 02:59 |
LjL | 98% is normal, though, if you don't have issues. 99% is normal too | 02:59 |
joerg | I admit I habe to manual how to run those tests, might be PEBKAC too | 03:00 |
joerg | have no* | 03:00 |
LjL | it's supposed to be just, place your finger there, press only gently, and try to stay as still as possible | 03:01 |
LjL | but even if your Note 9 were good, you just can't get as good a result with reflective as with transmissive | 03:02 |
joerg | might be a procedure like "place white sheet of paper to the sensor" is needed but that's not what the test is telling you. Actually it doesn't tell anything except an allowable range for an integer | 03:02 |
euod[m] | 96%, | 03:03 |
LjL | joerg, for the record, i'm not suggesting this, but for fear of what might happen if my parents get COVID and hospitals are full, several months ago i bought an oxygen concentrator (not medical-grade). those are machines that pump air into your nose while removing much of the nitrogen, so it's similar to having an oxygen bottle, though not as concentrated | 03:03 |
LjL | i think it might be useful for you to get a pulse oximeter to know if you're always around 90%, which is abnormal but probably won't cause damage (?), or often goes to even less than that | 03:04 |
euod[m] | those are interesting internally. | 03:04 |
LjL | if it goes to less than that, well, you may need oxygen | 03:04 |
joerg | I got a medical grade concentrator, bought it years ago "because O2 is cool and always useful for a Physician" | 03:05 |
euod[m] | far as I know they're a membrane that permits nitrogen to diffuse though, or something? | 03:05 |
LjL | and if oxygen helps you with concentration and general cognitive abilities, well... that would also point towards you needing oxygen | 03:05 |
LjL | joerg, ah, cool | 03:05 |
euod[m] | O2 is also pretty dangerous as like, a gas. | 03:05 |
LjL | euod[m], something like that? they *are* called "membrane-based". they also contain a particular material whose name escapes me right now | 03:05 |
aggi | question: if gas exchange in the lungs was critically limited wasn't the first symptom increased CO2? | 03:05 |
joerg | http://reisenweber.net/share-service/candle_with_pure_O2.mp4 | 03:06 |
LjL | euod[m], but with an oxygen concentrator you're not "creating" O2, you're just getting it from what is already present in the room | 03:06 |
LjL | aggi, "increased CO2" is not a symptom, but a sign | 03:06 |
LjL | the corresponding symptom would be "shortness of breath" or similar | 03:06 |
Brainstorm | Updates for New Zealand: +3 cases (now 2050) since a day ago | 03:06 |
LjL | and that is indeed one of the more worrisome symptoms of COVID | 03:07 |
aggi | it's a symptom of severly limited gas-exchange | 03:07 |
aggi | in the lungs | 03:07 |
euod[m] | aggi: I've no medical training or understanding to say, but I imagine they're different enough processes to be affected independently. you also don't notice oxygen deprivation at all, the first "symptom" you'll get is either being incredibly intoxicated or losing consciousness. the feeling when you hold your breath is CO2, not a lack of O2. | 03:07 |
LjL | and people with COVID-19 impacting the lung *do* feel short of breath | 03:10 |
LjL | so they have that symptom | 03:10 |
LjL | so the answer is "yes, except lung involvement isn't the first thing that COVID-19 causes" | 03:10 |
LjL | so in many cases shortness of breath happens *after* other symptoms | 03:11 |
aggi | how was this any different to various other diseases, such as COPD? and why is cv19 perpetuated as mono-causal univariate criteria? | 03:13 |
LjL | uh, what is the virus that causes COPD? | 03:13 |
aggi | for example, smoking and air pollution. | 03:14 |
LjL | because it has *one* symptom in common with COPD, you ask how it's any different? seriously? | 03:14 |
LjL | those are not viruses. | 03:14 |
LjL | COVID-19 is a disease caused by a specific virus. COPD has other causes. | 03:14 |
LjL | COVID-19 also presents as a set of things that aren't solely lung-related. | 03:14 |
LjL | anosmia isn't a symptom of COPD for instance, as far as i know, but it is a distinctive symptom of COVID-19 | 03:14 |
aggi | ok, that's why i asked, what justified the perpetuation of a mono-causal univariate criteria, be it either cv19 or any other. | 03:15 |
LjL | which doesn't mean it will *always* happen, of course. almost no symptom *always* happens in, like, most diseases. | 03:15 |
LjL | let me rephrase your question | 03:15 |
tinwhiskers | All those things are just bad energy and can be fixed with blood letting? | 03:15 |
tinwhiskers | Seriously, sometimes I think aggi is just trolling | 03:15 |
LjL | you're asking "What justifies saying that COVID-19 is caused by SARS-CoV-2, instead of having other causes or multiple causes together?" | 03:16 |
LjL | is that correct? | 03:16 |
aggi | no, i had raised various questions, rather precise even. | 03:16 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, only sometimes? the thing is sometimes i kind of agree with them, with the potential perplexities (not this time), but they are always stated in a very vague, ambiguous, "what if" manner without following through with more factual statements | 03:16 |
LjL | aggi, no, they were not precise | 03:16 |
LjL | not at all | 03:17 |
LjL | you are never really precise | 03:17 |
joerg | sorry I didn't see them. I seen ONE question and I admit it's a wording I have to look up to decide if it makes any sense or not | 03:17 |
LjL | i'd go as far as saying your questions/claims are always the opposite of precise | 03:17 |
joerg | ^^^ +1 | 03:17 |
tinwhiskers | Indeed | 03:18 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, and i don't know if troll, but definitely good at skirting the line of what i'll judge enough to ban, which, hey, i guess can be a useful social skill | 03:18 |
aggi | i see | 03:18 |
aggi | at least i'll have this in my record then. | 03:18 |
joerg | actually they are rarely mere questions but regularly involve an implicit incorrect assumption | 03:18 |
tinwhiskers | Heh. | 03:18 |
LjL | aggi, you can have it in your CV, "- good at avoiding getting banned" | 03:20 |
joerg | like "why do they claim they fetched stones from the moon when everybody knows the moon is a cheese?" | 03:20 |
tinwhiskers | Deja vu | 03:21 |
ryouma | doid nopt read scrollback. can you please define "perpetuated as mono-causal univariate criteria?"? is this from your own thinking or did you get it from another source? thank you. --- 19:13 <aggi> how was this any different to various other diseases, such as COPD? and why is cv19 perpetuated as mono-causal univariate criteria? | 03:21 |
joerg | in an other context basically every of your question would pass as humor | 03:21 |
ryouma | aggi: what do your words mean? | 03:21 |
ryouma | please restat in your OWN words | 03:22 |
tinwhiskers | I've seen aggi in action in ##philosophy a few years back and I don't recall him being that thick so I think there's some intentional game in play. | 03:22 |
joerg | ^^^ +1 | 03:22 |
ryouma | aggi: i am sincere here. please answer. | 03:22 |
LjL | and... i guess i can't promise i won't ban based on the answer, if that helps. indeed there are claims that i won't accept but it will make me *less* likely to eventually ban you if you make it clearer what your thoughts are, as long as they aren't absurd beyond belief | 03:24 |
LjL | i meant to say can*, but freudian slip perhaps | 03:24 |
ryouma | make it clearer so that he understands you will not ban | 03:25 |
LjL | i won't ban aggi based on the reply they give to ryouma about this particular question | 03:25 |
tinwhiskers | In fact we've warned him repeatedly to start making sense or leaving permanently and sooner or later we're going to have to ensure this happens if these games continue. | 03:26 |
LjL | and silence ensued | 03:27 |
LjL | i will watch me a movie | 03:27 |
joerg | marcov chain overload, rebooting, please wait... | 03:29 |
LjL | aggi, anyway, if i understand what you mean: nobody actually thinks that the cause of COVID-19, as in the actual disease, especially its more severe form, is single. most people (including i think all of us here, not sure about you) think the root cause is the SARS-COV-2 virus, but there are several completely different courses of the disease, and the reason for that it's most likely not just "it's random", so there are contributing factors. some have been | 03:33 |
LjL | identified: age, comorbidites, others are less obvious, like blood type, and we're probably going to discover a bunch we don't expect. does that mean it's possible to get COVID-19 *without* being infected with SARS-COV-2, though? not by the way we defined COVID-19. of course, yes, you can have lung issues (since as COPD) without it. | 03:33 |
Brainstorm | Updates for France: +9397 cases (now 2.2 million) since 20 hours ago — Netherlands: +4370 cases (now 511482), +62 deaths (now 9284) since 20 hours ago — Belize: +72 cases (now 5587), +10 deaths (now 141) since a day ago | 03:35 |
ryouma | well i think i helped you guys achieve silence? | 03:45 |
ryouma | perhaps it is related to thabo mbeki: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28374285/ , https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25871269/ ? | 03:46 |
ryouma | (just a total guess and probably wrong) | 03:46 |
ryouma | (just hte abstracts) | 03:47 |
joerg | Cognitive dissonance, hmm yeah | 03:53 |
aggi | impressive, and sufficient reason to continue with german language incomprehensible fringe, which doesn't belong here anyway | 03:54 |
Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid: Hospitals could be 'overwhelmed' without new tiers - Gove: Cabinet Office minister Michael Gove says restrictions are still needed despite the end of England's lockdown. → https://is.gd/Eaksm0 | 03:56 |
joerg | >>4. Ignore or deny information that conflicts with existing beliefs ("This doughnut is not a high-sugar food.")<< | 04:00 |
joerg | can you make any sense of >>continue with german language incomprehensible fringe<<? | 04:02 |
ryouma | that does look a little markovian... | 04:04 |
ryouma | what was impressive? | 04:05 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Canada: +5376 cases (now 359530), +96 deaths (now 11895) since 20 hours ago | 04:06 |
joerg | ryouma: whatever happened, seems you helped a lot with it :) thanks! | 04:07 |
ryouma | idk... | 04:08 |
ryouma | but yw if so! | 04:08 |
LjL | eh, why would i +b? they left after... presumably PMing you | 04:16 |
LjL | i'm not going to be mean by adding a ban on top of it | 04:17 |
ryouma | oh joerg is german and there was a pm? | 04:18 |
joerg | nope | 04:18 |
joerg | no pm | 04:18 |
tinwhiskers | I suspect the jig was up | 04:19 |
LjL | i just assumed there was some german language conversation i couldn't see here because... i couldn't see any here | 04:19 |
joerg | all I see is what you see in the plain here as well | 04:19 |
tinwhiskers | i.e. called him on his game | 04:20 |
joerg | :nod: | 04:20 |
joerg | actually I doubt they were aware of me being german (which I try to deny anyway ;-P) | 04:21 |
LjL | what i interpret it as, with newfound knowledge that there was no german PM, is that they're going to have fun into some german-language channel with fringe theories in it since this place isn't any better | 04:21 |
tinwhiskers | And he's saying that whatever nonsense generator he was using was quite successful and he's going elsewhere to continue | 04:22 |
LjL | it's okay, we'll improve | 04:22 |
joerg | makes a lot of sense | 04:22 |
LjL | maybe we'll get a vaccine | 04:22 |
LjL | joerg, you try to deny being german while being called "joerg"? | 04:22 |
tinwhiskers | Lol | 04:23 |
kreyren[m] | Could be Swedish you know~ | 04:23 |
kreyren[m] | These seems to be too many Swedish and norweigians lately too x.x | 04:24 |
LjL | vem sade någonting om det? | 04:25 |
kreyren[m] | O.o | 04:27 |
joerg | LjL: some alternatives: Austria, Suisse, A lot of nordic countries... | 04:28 |
LjL | i knew it | 04:28 |
DocScrutinizer | &who | 04:31 |
DocScrutinizer | damn | 04:31 |
LjL | du-da-dumm | 04:32 |
DocScrutinizer | /who *joerg | 04:32 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: Oxford, WHO scientists say more data needed on AstraZeneca's Covid vaccine trials: More data is needed from AstraZeneca's Covid vaccine trials beyond what was presented in a press release, experts from the WHO and Oxford University said. → https://is.gd/5ZbGA1 | 04:33 |
LjL | Brainstorm, we knoooooow | 04:33 |
DocScrutinizer | hehehehe | 04:33 |
DocScrutinizer | keep a list of already posted headlines and filter those that are clear doublettes? like, pattern matching (80% similarity) | 04:34 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Belgium: +3114 cases (now 570829), +120 deaths (now 16339) since 3 hours ago | 04:38 |
LjL | DocScrutinizer, i do! | 04:45 |
LjL | but it's borked in several ways, i guess | 04:45 |
LjL | elif latest.text == previous.text or SequenceMatcher(a=latest.text, b=previous.text).ratio() > 0.7: updated = False | 04:45 |
DocScrutinizer | re /who, guess what: http://lagrange.cloud-7.de/et_al/covid/ == http://reisenweber.net/et_al/covid/ | 04:46 |
LjL | are you trying to prove you can convincingly pass for non-german | 04:47 |
DocScrutinizer | and my "cron" is fubared | 04:47 |
DocScrutinizer | hehehe, yeah, trying to demonstrate how futile it would be | 04:47 |
LjL | i spilled honey on my shirt | 04:48 |
DocScrutinizer | stay tuned, I'll fix it next week | 04:48 |
LjL | damn whoever came up with the honey thing making me want to eat honey | 04:48 |
DocScrutinizer | gnhnhnhn | 04:48 |
DocScrutinizer | get clover honey | 04:49 |
DocScrutinizer | store in fridge | 04:49 |
LjL | oh i do have the tabs | 04:53 |
LjL | well, drops | 04:53 |
DocScrutinizer | ooh, D gets converted to a steroid Calcitriol | 04:57 |
DocScrutinizer | that's why it often is called PROvitamin | 04:58 |
DocScrutinizer | ? | 04:58 |
DocScrutinizer | sorry nope, Colecalciferol is PROvitamin D | 05:02 |
DocScrutinizer | D is a PROsteroid | 05:02 |
DocScrutinizer | so the vitamin D story is even more plausible, considering steroids help with moderating inflammatory processes | 05:08 |
tinwhiskers | ohhhhh it's the Doc | 05:08 |
tinwhiskers | o/ | 05:08 |
DocScrutinizer | hah o/ | 05:08 |
joerg | now that I finally grabbed that nick, I gonne USE IT ;-P# | 05:10 |
joerg | even when it sounds german | 05:12 |
tinwhiskers | I was only familiar with cholecalciferol, which you certainly wouldn't want to get mixed up with colecalciferol. | 05:13 |
joerg | um, aren;t they one thing? | 05:13 |
tinwhiskers | Cholecalciferol is rat poison. | 05:13 |
joerg | o.O | 05:14 |
tinwhiskers | Well, we also use it for possums, deer, etc. | 05:14 |
joerg | https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cholecalciferol | 05:14 |
tinwhiskers | hrm | 05:14 |
tinwhiskers | Oh. it *is* the same: This is one of the most dangerous mouse and rat poisons on the market. Cholecalciferol, or activated vitamin D3, causes a life-threateningly high calcium and phosphorus level in the body, resulting in severe, acute kidney failure, cardiovascular abnormalities, and tissue mineralization. | 05:15 |
tinwhiskers | Dose maketh the poison | 05:15 |
joerg | lol | 05:15 |
joerg | TIL: used as Rodenticide, and "don~t overdose vitamin D" - well I knew the latter already, didn;t know it was so severe | 05:20 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Holiday season starts under pall of more than 100,000 new Covid-19 cases. And 20 states did not report numbers on Thanksgiving Day → https://is.gd/rvbO8x | 05:21 |
joerg | ok, I'd need to eat 50000 of those 1000iU pills to get anything the magnitude of a lethal dose | 05:22 |
tinwhiskers | pretty good safety margin | 05:22 |
tinwhiskers | just make sure you keep count :-/ | 05:23 |
joerg | hehehe | 05:23 |
joerg | then OTOH, it accumulates for months | 05:27 |
tinwhiskers | oh. ok | 05:28 |
joerg | T1/2 of the steroid Calcitriol is 1 or 2 months | 05:30 |
joerg | D s just a PROsteroid for Calcitriol | 05:31 |
tinwhiskers | so limit yourself to 1000 tablets a day | 05:32 |
joerg | 100, for two months | 05:34 |
tinwhiskers | heh. ok | 05:34 |
joerg | actually 40 to 100 for one to two months | 05:34 |
tinwhiskers | oh, is that the actual recommended dose? | 05:35 |
joerg | the overdose limit | 05:35 |
tinwhiskers | ah | 05:35 |
tinwhiskers | 40-100 *per day* for one to two months? | 05:35 |
joerg | no adverse effects observed below that | 05:36 |
tinwhiskers | or 40-100 tablets in total over one to two months? | 05:36 |
joerg | 40,000 to 100,000 iU per day, for 1 to 2 months, depending on brand of product | 05:36 |
joerg | EFSA says 10,000iU/d | 05:38 |
tinwhiskers | ah. ok | 05:38 |
joerg | NOAEL (no observed adverse effect level) für Vitamin D von 250 µg (10000 IE) | 05:39 |
joerg | however it takes 4 months to reach new equilibrium of Calcitriol | 05:41 |
tinwhiskers | what does that mean? | 05:42 |
joerg | D -> Calcitriol, Calcitriol T1/2 2 months. So when you change your D intake to a new level, after 4 months the Calcitriol level will get steady again | 05:43 |
tinwhiskers | oh | 05:44 |
Brainstorm | New from NPR: A Black Friday With Masked Shoppers And Booming Online Sales: Shoppers encountered temperature checks and mall Santas behind plexiglas shields. But online sales may have stolen the show. → https://is.gd/RG1eLh | 05:45 |
euod[m] | vitamin d is fat soluble as well which changes things a bit. | 05:53 |
euod[m] | unlike vitamin c which is not. | 05:53 |
joerg | now that I learned this (thanks for making me look it up) I prolly will get me one pack of those for initial "depot fill up" https://www.docmorris.de/colecalciferol-aristo-20000-ie-weichk/13980402 | 05:55 |
joerg | I'd love to do if there was any | 05:57 |
joerg | I'll get me a 50 shots of 20k iU and then keep level by sun or 1000iU. Ohtherwise I'd reach a meaningful level when summer and covid are over | 06:01 |
genr8_ | i was told 10k a day is the safest way to regain normal levels | 06:09 |
genr8_ | or 4000 if it wasnt that low to begin with | 06:10 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Anger grows at Hong Kong’s erratic covid rules as cases mount → https://is.gd/A0hbcm | 06:10 |
genr8_ | i got mine tested and it was super low. *looks for the paper* | 06:10 |
genr8_ | 14.7 ng/ml | 06:11 |
joerg | genr8_: you might be absolutely right. I just read the paper of that 20k iU bombs and they say "one capsule PER WEEK" | 06:13 |
genr8_ | yeah. i would not do 1 a day | 06:14 |
joerg | genr8_: D or Calcitriol? | 06:14 |
genr8_ | D | 06:14 |
genr8_ | i dont know how it metabolizes or whatever | 06:14 |
joerg | D only tells about last 2 days of your food | 06:15 |
genr8_ | hmm | 06:15 |
joerg | it gets metabolized in liver pretty instantly into Calcitriol which has a half live time T1/2 of 2 months | 06:15 |
genr8_ | so how do you test your calciwhatnotlevels | 06:15 |
joerg | you don't, lab does | 06:16 |
genr8_ | i guess its special | 06:16 |
joerg | on request, recommended method to monitor long term D treatment | 06:16 |
genr8_ | if only i had known this 1 day early i could have gotten it when i went today | 06:17 |
joerg | don't ask me about sane plasma concentration | 06:18 |
genr8_ | why are we left to wonder about the most important thing ? | 06:21 |
genr8_ | it says you need to take calcium and phosphate with that calcitriol also and monitor the levels | 06:26 |
genr8_ | this seems super complicated. im just gonna stick to D | 06:28 |
joerg | https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calcitriol vs https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calcitriol quite a bit different | 06:28 |
genr8_ | i was just on that | 06:28 |
genr8_ | i dont read german tho, what is the diff ? | 06:28 |
joerg | genr8_: yes, you're not supposed to take calcitriol. take provitamin D and your body does the rest | 06:29 |
genr8_ | ok | 06:29 |
joerg | seems the list of diagnoses for low vitamine D / calcitriol differs, to start with | 06:30 |
joerg | https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calcitriol#Modulation_der_Immunantwort seems relevant for covid. Completely missing in english WP | 06:35 |
joerg | genr8_: https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=de&tl=en&u=https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calcitriol%23Modulation_der_Immunantwort | 06:36 |
joerg | >>Half-life : 5-8 hours<< is puzzling me. Quite in contrast to the statements found in "vitamin D" | 06:40 |
joerg | https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=de&tl=en&u=https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cholecalciferol%23Vitamin-D-Bestimmung | 06:41 |
joerg | >>The half-life of calcidiol in the blood circulation is 1–2 months, depending on the overall vitamin D status<< DAMN!!! calcidiol, not calcitriol, where did they trick me? Nevermind my bogus rants last 100 lines | 06:43 |
joerg | genr8_: here you are https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=de&tl=en&u=https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calcidiol 10 ng / ml and 32 ng / ml | 06:54 |
joerg | Calcidiol levels are measured to determine a patient's vitamin D status. | 06:57 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Ukraine: +16494 cases (now 712249), +201 deaths (now 12292) since a day ago — Japan: +2553 cases (now 142778) since 14 hours ago — Germany: +20819 cases (now 1.0 million) since 19 hours ago — Saskatchewan, Canada: +329 cases (now 7691), +4 deaths (now 44) since a day ago | 07:06 |
Brainstorm | New preprint: Which policies most effectively reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission in schools? by Anna Bershteyn et al, published on 2020-11-27 at https://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.11.24.20237305 [... want %more?] | 07:25 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Kenyans arrested at airport with 'fake' Covid certificates → https://is.gd/cHQt3q | 07:36 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Saint Petersburg, Russia: +3687 cases (now 114820), +63 deaths (now 5280) since a day ago — Saxony, Germany: +2556 cases (now 52411), +58 deaths (now 858) since a day ago — Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Ukraine: +1773 cases (now 34888), +29 deaths (now 852) since a day ago — Kiev, Ukraine: +1520 cases (now 65539), +26 deaths (now 1253) since a day ago | 07:38 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: Pope Blasts Those Who Criticize COVID Restrictions in the Name of “Personal Freedom” (10046 votes) | https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/11/pope-francis-blasts-critics-covid-restrictions-personal-freedom.html?via=recirc_recent | https://redd.it/k2ecfo | 07:56 |
euod[m] | https://twitter.com/kate_ptrv/status/1332398737604431874?s=20 | 08:21 |
euod[m] | that's got to be the most interesting COVID-19 research in the world right now. comparing complaints about scented candles not smelling enough with covid19. | 08:22 |
euod[m] | that is- since the pandemic there's been an observable increase in the number of complaints, and the average review of a scented candle. | 08:22 |
\mSg | That's really interesting. | 08:31 |
Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid: Hospitals could be overwhelmed without new tiers, says Gove: Michael Gove warns MPs strict rules are still needed in England despite lockdown ending on 2 December. → https://is.gd/Eaksm0 | 09:13 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: COVID-19 vaccines will be fully covered for every citizen in the Czech Republic says Minister of Health Jan Blatný. → https://is.gd/mKldsv | 09:50 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Serum 25(OH)D Level on Hospital Admission Associated With COVID-19 Stage and Mortality (80 votes) | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33236114/ | https://redd.it/k1t4ap | 10:21 |
Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid: Hospitals could be overwhelmed without new tiers, says Gove: Michael Gove warns MPs strict rules are still needed in England despite lockdown ending on 2 December. → https://is.gd/Eaksm0 | 10:26 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronavirusUK: Vitamin D to be offered to 2.5 million vulnerable people in England → https://is.gd/HJnLPr | 11:14 |
Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid: Hospitals could be overwhelmed without new tiers, says Gove: Michael Gove warns MPs strict rules are still needed in England despite lockdown ending on 2 December. → https://is.gd/Eaksm0 | 11:38 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Samoa: +1 cases (now 2) since 9 days ago | 11:52 |
snake | <snake> amigojapan, my doctor got covid supposedly 2 weeks ago | 11:53 |
snake | <snake> 3+1/2 weeks ago i saw him and i told him about my tonsil stones, and he looked at my tonsils without my mask on | 11:53 |
snake | <snake> i hope i didnt give it to him somehow... i have no symptoms of covid | 11:53 |
Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid: Free Vitamin D pills for 2.5 million vulnerable in England: There is no evidence that it protects against Covid-19 but it could boost the health of the vulnerable. → https://is.gd/r11Efh | 12:03 |
snake | i wonder if im asymptomatic transmitter? | 12:18 |
snake | is that even possible? | 12:19 |
snake | or is it only pre-symptomatic people that transmit the virus | 12:19 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Switzerland: +52 deaths (now 4596) since 23 hours ago | 12:38 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: COVID-19: Scientists develop novel method to detect single virus particles → https://is.gd/SfPmiO | 12:39 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro rejects COVID-19 shot, calls masks taboo → https://is.gd/i7nbum | 13:53 |
rpifan | snake, its very possible | 14:02 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Pope Blasts Those Who Criticize COVID Restrictions in the Name of “Personal Freedom” → https://is.gd/RPKCSA | 14:05 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Belarus: +1691 cases (now 133324), +7 deaths (now 1143) since 23 hours ago — Denmark: +1636 cases (now 78354), +7 deaths (now 823) since a day ago | 14:06 |
Brainstorm | New from Gazzetta Ufficiale italiana: MINISTERO DELLA SALUTE - ORDINANZA 27 novembre 2020: Ulteriori misure urgenti in materia di contenimento e gestionedell'emergenza epidemiologica da COVID-19. (20A06657) → https://is.gd/omf6wk | 14:17 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Netherlands: +4459 cases (now 513325), +59 deaths (now 9326) since a day ago | 14:38 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Azerbaijan: +4212 cases (now 114025), +32 deaths (now 1323) since a day ago — Germany: +359 deaths (now 16193) since 23 hours ago — Switzerland: +39 deaths (now 4597) since 23 hours ago | 14:52 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Post - November 28 | Questions, images, videos, comments, unconfirmed reports, theories, suggestions → https://is.gd/5CghPF | 14:54 |
Brainstorm | Updates for US: +198652 cases (now 13.5 million), +1380 deaths (now 271030) since a day ago | 15:20 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Highly functional virus-specific cellular immune response in asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection (83 votes) | https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.25.399139v1 | https://redd.it/k2ky0n | 15:29 |
Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid: Nadhim Zahawi appointed as vaccine rollout minister: Nadhim Zahawi will oversee distributing the vaccine in England until at least summer 2021. → https://is.gd/7Sghxt | 15:31 |
joerg | >><snake> i wonder if im asymptomatic transmitter? is that even possible?<< yes >><snake> or is it only pre-symptomatic people that transmit the virus<< no, there's both | 15:43 |
metreo | if you are please self isolate and take a pcr amplification test | 15:44 |
joerg | >>... and he looked at my tonsils without my mask on<< I can't imagine any other way | 15:44 |
snake | metreo, my doctor is closed | 15:44 |
snake | joerg, fair point | 15:44 |
snake | joerg, he didnt even see the tonsil stones | 15:44 |
snake | but they are there | 15:44 |
snake | it was me :< | 15:48 |
snake | i feel bad | 15:48 |
snake | tonsil stones are not that important | 15:48 |
snake | i shouldnt have asked him to look at them | 15:49 |
snake | i mean i didnt but i brought them up | 15:49 |
snake | and he decided to look | 15:49 |
snake | i could have said "its ok, maybe another time" | 15:49 |
ubLIX[m] | you are not responsible for a doctor's bad decision | 15:52 |
ubLIX[m] | i mean, if i walked into a doctor's consultation room and they were not wearing a mask, i'd walk straight out again, but still | 15:54 |
Brainstorm | New from This Week In Virology: TWiV 686: COVID-19 clinical update #38 with Dr. Daniel Griffin: Daniel Griffin provides his weekly clinical report on COVID-19, including new post-exposure guidelines from CDC, clinical trials of Remdesivir and convalescent plasma, FDA EUA for baricitinib and Regeneron’s monoclonal antibody and more. → https://is.gd/DpyEGg | 15:56 |
snake | ubLIX[m], they were wearing a mask | 15:57 |
ubLIX[m] | oh i misread (eyes skipped the word 'my') | 15:58 |
snake | i wonder if they'll do contact tracing | 16:01 |
snake | and give me a test | 16:01 |
snake | prolly not | 16:01 |
ubLIX[m] | isn't 1.5 weeks at the upper limit of possible incubation times? | 16:02 |
snake | the visit with my doctor was nov 3 | 16:03 |
snake | and yesterday, my therapist told me the doctor got covid 2 weeks ago | 16:03 |
ubLIX[m] | still sounds upper limit | 16:05 |
snake | yeah idk | 16:05 |
snake | i would contact trace if i were in charge | 16:05 |
snake | cause who knows, i could have had covid asymptomatically for like 6 months now | 16:05 |
snake | the only person i knew that had it was earlier this year | 16:05 |
snake | KREYREEN, hey krey | 16:05 |
KREYREEN | o.o | 16:06 |
KREYREEN | heyo~ | 16:06 |
snake | KREYREEN, i accidentally gave my dr covid | 16:06 |
ubLIX[m] | eh. you'd be a very special outlier indeed if you had covid in an infectious way for 6 months | 16:06 |
KREYREEN | snake, how can you accidentally do that | 16:06 |
snake | KREYREEN, well i told him i had tonsil stones during an appointment for another thing, and he wanted to look at them | 16:07 |
ubLIX[m] | snake: you have no way of knowing if you contributed to the doctor's infection | 16:07 |
snake | ubLIX[m], yeah ok i guess not | 16:07 |
snake | ubLIX[m], but there's contact tracing and testing | 16:07 |
ubLIX[m] | and anyway, that balance of responsibility for risk balancing in that interaction is borne by the doctor, not you | 16:07 |
KREYREEN | hmm O.o so you might get the covid from the doctor after he got it from someone else? | 16:08 |
KREYREEN | ahhahaha | 16:08 |
snake | KREYREEN, my drs office is closed now | 16:08 |
KREYREEN | o.o | 16:08 |
ubLIX[m] | given their exposure, the doctor is more likely to infect you than the other way round | 16:08 |
ubLIX[m] | assuming you generally behave in a cautious way | 16:09 |
snake | ubLIX[m], generally | 16:10 |
snake | yeah i wear n95 masks | 16:10 |
snake | they cost $3 each | 16:10 |
snake | so sometimes i use them twice if i barely used it | 16:10 |
KREYREEN | being cautius sucks in a stupid country~ | 16:10 |
snake | KREYREEN, haha | 16:11 |
KREYREEN | snake, the 3M gas mask is 20 USD and is more economical | 16:11 |
snake | i use hand sanitizer after the gas pump | 16:11 |
KREYREEN | as the filters are like 8USD in CZ and lasts waaaay longer | 16:11 |
snake | KREYREEN, i got one of those and it was a counterfeit and it broke | 16:11 |
KREYREEN | and if you know how you can even clean them and desinfect them without damaging them~ | 16:11 |
snake | the plastic was like toy soldier plastic, maybe even worse | 16:11 |
KREYREEN | o.o | 16:11 |
KREYREEN | you should live in a stupid country then! none cares about protection here so they are widely available~ | 16:12 |
snake | where do you live again? | 16:12 |
KREYREEN | or EU does it's job at holding economy and i am just butt hurt retard about people not distancing themself enough from me~ | 16:12 |
KREYREEN | in morava~ | 16:12 |
snake | never heard of it | 16:13 |
KREYREEN | the better part of czechia | 16:13 |
snake | oh yeah | 16:13 |
KREYREEN | right below the retarded part~ | 16:13 |
snake | lol | 16:13 |
snake | share it anyways | 16:15 |
KREYREEN | too late you dont deserve such level of detail | 16:15 |
snake | i dont know anything about the czheck republic | 16:15 |
snake | i dont know anything about the czech republic | 16:16 |
KREYREEN | o.o | 16:16 |
KREYREEN | neither do i~ i just watch news sometimes see some german overdosed crackhead crash into a cyclist and then stab him multiple times and then i go back to programming~ | 16:18 |
snake | KREYREEN, smart people get covid sometimes too | 16:18 |
KREYREEN | true~ | 16:18 |
snake | like elon musk, he is smart, but sometimes he can be retarded too | 16:19 |
snake | and he got covid | 16:19 |
KREYREEN | meh | 16:19 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Life-style: Kate Middleton’s survey reveals increase in parents’ loneliness in lockdown → https://is.gd/DHlLSy | 16:20 |
snake | i tried persuading my parents that climate change is caused by people during thanksgiving | 16:21 |
snake | i took over the roku and played youtube videos about it, cleared out my mom's crazy videos | 16:22 |
snake | they are still not convinced | 16:22 |
KREYREEN | try to lit them on fire and let them run in a dry forest~ they might get convinced then | 16:23 |
snake | KREYREEN, during the chinese revolution, freedom fighters often used violence on the older people | 16:23 |
snake | it works | 16:23 |
snake | but china is maybe not in a good place | 16:24 |
snake | entirely | 16:24 |
KREYREEN | i like china though :c | 16:24 |
snake | KREYREEN, dont they make a lot of pollution | 16:24 |
KREYREEN | authoritanist countries are usually much faster in representing common interest~ | 16:24 |
Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid: Nadhim Zahawi appointed as vaccine rollout minister: Nadhim Zahawi will oversee distributing the vaccine in England until at least summer 2021. → https://is.gd/7Sghxt | 16:34 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Moldova: +1712 cases (now 105852), +19 deaths (now 2269) since a day ago — Canada: +5934 cases (now 360886), +104 deaths (now 11923) since 23 hours ago | 16:51 |
Brainstorm | New from NPR: Germany Passes 1 Million Coronavirus Cases, As Merkel Warns Of 'A Tough Winter': With the daily number of new infections hovering around 20,000, Chancellor Angel Merkel warned Germans this week that her government may move to extend restrictions into the new year. → https://is.gd/wpNVoH | 17:10 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Italy: +26315 cases (now 1.6 million), +686 deaths (now 54363) since a day ago — United Kingdom: +15871 cases (now 1.6 million), +479 deaths (now 58030) since 23 hours ago | 17:20 |
Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid: Nadhim Zahawi appointed as vaccine rollout minister: Nadhim Zahawi will oversee distributing the vaccine in England until at least summer 2021. → https://is.gd/7Sghxt | 17:35 |
LjL | what the heck is up with http://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Turkey ? | 17:39 |
Arsanerit | that looks bad | 17:48 |
Arsanerit | The official website of the government of Belarus does not mention the number of new cases per day but does mention that the number of recoveries per day keeps increasing. | 17:49 |
Arsanerit | The offloop data for Germany appear different from the data at corona.rki.de | 17:51 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Arizona, US: +4136 cases (now 322774), +36 deaths (now 6624) since 22 hours ago — Switzerland: +50 deaths (now 4621) since 19 hours ago | 17:51 |
Arsanerit | On the day the German government officially introduced a new "200 new cases per 100k inhabitants per week" threshold, the district I live in dropped below that threshold (to 197,9). I suppose that is a coincidence. | 17:52 |
LjL | it looks so bad as to be implausible | 17:53 |
LjL | (not sure what is implausible though, whether the current amount of cases, or the previous) | 17:54 |
Arsanerit | There seem to be other countries where the last couple of data points show a sudden spike: Germany, US | 17:55 |
Arsanerit | maybe there is a data collection or reporting artefact? | 17:55 |
kara[m] | hey hey | 17:55 |
kara[m] | is there anyone here who isn't taking vitamin D? | 17:56 |
Arsanerit | You mean as supplements? | 17:58 |
kara[m] | Italy hospital relief: Hotels repurposed to accommodate coronavirus patients | 17:58 |
Arsanerit | Should we? | 17:59 |
LjL | ooh uhm what was the article on vitamin D that popped up yesterday and i said "i'll read it" and then didn't | 18:27 |
LjL | good thing i have logs | 18:28 |
LjL | it was this https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-science-idUSKBN2872LH | 18:29 |
LjL | kind of a "mix everything into one pot" article | 18:29 |
LjL | it fall shorts of saying "vitamin D doesn't help", though. it doesn't help you when you're already hospitalized. | 18:30 |
LjL | but there are reasons to think the vitamin D thing is correlation and not causation | 18:30 |
LjL | still, it's relatively harmless in regular doses, and we're likely to be deficient in the winter and during lockdowns, so yeah i take it | 18:30 |
LjL | https://www.bmj.com/content/356/bmj.i6583 for instance has a better conclusion about it, although it's not specific to COVID-19 | 18:31 |
pepee | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25236026 The technique involves heating ordinary plastics such as bottles or shopping bags and then putting them into an ordinary cotton candy machine (also known as a candy floss machine). The machine spins the plastic into a material that is similar to cotton candy (a mesh), which is also electrocharged by the spinning. | 18:31 |
LjL | although it's weird they would find an effect in those NOT receiving "bolus doses", but not in those who were | 18:32 |
pepee | wrong link: https://phys.org/news/2020-11-physicist-n95-type-respirators-cotton-candy.html | 18:32 |
LjL | lol | 18:32 |
LjL | not sure it's very safe to breathe plastic fumes, just saying | 18:33 |
pepee | well, the important part is the cheapness of the method of production, I guess | 18:35 |
kara[m] | is there anyone here who isn't taking vitamin D? | 18:36 |
blkshp | o/ | 18:36 |
tinwhiskers | Yes | 18:36 |
pepee | me | 18:36 |
blkshp | Why would I be taking Vitamin D? | 18:37 |
pepee | but while I don't go out much, it's summer in my country, and this has been a sunny year | 18:37 |
blkshp | Oh I suppose you may be from somwhere where lockdown means lockdown and no going out. | 18:38 |
blkshp | Not here. | 18:38 |
tinwhiskers | Well you also need sun :-/ | 18:39 |
pepee | forgot to mention, there is no lockdown in my area | 18:39 |
blkshp | I get at least an hour of sun a day, when it is out. I live in England so Sun is not the most active | 18:41 |
blkshp | But I make up for it in summer. | 18:41 |
tinwhiskers | Nice | 18:41 |
LjL | de-facto, DocScrutinizer05: https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=it&tl=en&u=https://www.repubblica.it/esteri/2020/11/28/news/il_famoso_virologo_tedesco_kekule_il_nuovo_covid-19_proviene_dal_nord_italia_-276154214/?ref%3DRHTP-BH-I274746038-P2-S10-T1 | 19:23 |
LjL | i think that's a little harsh towards Italy considering that 1) other European countries didn't do any better at all in terms of preventative measures, and 2) Italy was the first to sequence D614G, is it known we were the first to *have* it too? | 19:24 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Oklahoma, US: +6257 cases (now 193824), +13 deaths (now 1717) since 23 hours ago | 19:37 |
de-facto | yeah it is a little harsh, but there also is truth in it like 1) if European and western countries would have acted like China we would not have such a severe pandemic 2) D614G was first sequenced in Italy which does not determine its origin but also not exclude that it circulated first there. 3) Does not matter anyhow because its not the fault of the hosts when and where mutations occur. 4) The containment problem as we have seen in | 19:43 |
de-facto | Europe during the fall remains to be solved. | 19:43 |
de-facto | And to be honest right now I am quite disappointed in the German government that was not able to get consensus on proper containment measures, incidence does not go down, all we have is a steady state on very high incidence levels, probably 100000 people get infected every day with all nasty longterm consequences and occupied ICU beds still raise every day too. This is absolutely unacceptable in my opinion. | 19:46 |
de-facto | the daily new 100k cases are a (lower) estimate of the daily deteted ~20k new positive tests multiplied by a "dark cases factor" of ~5x hence 20k * 5 = 100k | 19:48 |
de-facto | Schools remain open despite better knowledge of the experts, teachers and children get infected and connect normally unconnected social (family) bubbles with infection paths | 19:49 |
de-facto | When classes must be quarantined they only want to do it for 5 days then quicktest to resume negative | 19:50 |
LjL | the governor of Lombardy is currently celebrating the fact that we're moving from "red" to "orange"... while he should be ashamed and go the hell away because he didn't secure enough flu shots even for the elderly | 19:51 |
de-facto | Teachers are not required to participate in quarantine because otherwise they also could close the schools right away... | 19:51 |
de-facto | the short quarantine of 5 days is futile, we know that the *median* incubation time is 5.2 days, meaning half of infected test positive before it (fine) BUT the other *half* of cases test positive *after* those 5.2 days (with antigen quicktests) | 19:53 |
LjL | who gets 5 days quarantine? that's ridiculous | 19:53 |
LjL | teacherse? | 19:53 |
de-facto | so accepting that at least *half* of infections are allowed back into the classrooms is absolutely UNACCEPTABLE but the ministers are just too dumb to mentally grasp such simple concepts as the statistical median it seems | 19:54 |
de-facto | the children in a classroom with one detected positive get quarantined for 5 days then can resume on negative antigen quicktest | 19:55 |
de-facto | this has *no* scientific base at all | 19:55 |
de-facto | teachers? afaik they dont even have to participate in quarantine or something stupid like that | 19:56 |
de-facto | sorry about ranting, its just frustrating to observe how futile some of the political decisions become once they stop listening to the scientific experts on that field | 19:57 |
de-facto | Schools schould be forced to close for presence of teachers and children until vaccination generated enough immunity that infection dynamics are under control. No exceptions and no discussion about compromises. | 20:00 |
de-facto | Simple as that. Why? Because we can observe right now how irresponsible they act on being allowed when trusted with implementing proper containment. | 20:02 |
de-facto | Maybe they know why they dont accompany schools with more testing. Could be they would provide reasons to close them with that. | 20:03 |
de-facto | I mean if they stubbornly already refuse to close schools in all cases, why not at least accompany this with a tight testing mesh, routinely screen for infections and *learn* about infection paths? | 20:06 |
de-facto | this is a once in time opportunity to gain very valuable information about respiratory and airborne disease infection paths | 20:06 |
genera | what i dont get ist, why .ch does not understand | 20:10 |
de-facto | but ministers of culture and education dont understand such things obviously. maybe they should be forced to participate in an experts briefing, they should be forced to sign a list of scientific consensus about relevant mechanisms and that they were allowed to ask experts everything about it, so that later on they cant go like "if we only had know that at that time..." | 20:10 |
de-facto | they should take such a list of relevant scientific facts as basis to derive their decisions and should be forbidden to implement anything without proper reasoning based on such facts | 20:12 |
genera | well it has been an quarter year now while Merkel has lecturing them weekly | 20:12 |
de-facto | they should sign if publicly the exact points they have been briefed about. | 20:13 |
genera | well Drosten has given in and has told, now it is the time for the politics to decide, i go back to studying MERS, SARS is closed for me | 20:14 |
de-facto | ministers should be held responsible for their decisions and the base and sources they choose. Compromises are all in favor of viral replication without any exceptions. | 20:15 |
de-facto | The experts have given more than enough information already, the problem *really* is not the lack of their knowledge, if data is not available then because studies (for example in schools) simple were refused to be implemented despite the experts already sounding like broken records "if we open schools then only when accompany this with a tight test screening mesh" | 20:17 |
de-facto | This is the fault of the politicians, not the experts, experts cant force politicians to act on scientific facts | 20:18 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +120 deaths (now 16272) since 22 hours ago | 20:20 |
de-facto | one last point onto schools: look at the success of countries lockdowns that included schools | 20:21 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Minnesota, US: +9022 cases (now 304023), +45 deaths (now 3580) since 23 hours ago | 20:51 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Shipping groups ask Amazon founder Jeff Bezos to support some 400,000 seafarers who are stuck on merchant vessels because of port and border restrictions to stop the spread of Covid-19, some of them for more than a year. → https://is.gd/Y9H5Bq | 20:52 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Oregon, US: +1674 cases (now 72506), +11 deaths (now 896) since 23 hours ago | 21:23 |
Brainstorm | New from "Cluster 5" on Wikipedia: LjL: /* Aftermath */ "corona-restrictions" is not an encyclopedic term: Aftermath: "corona-restrictions" is not an encyclopedic term ← Previous revision Revision as of 20:42, 28 November 2020 Line 25: Line 25: === Aftermath === === Aftermath === − Following mass-testing, SSI announced on 19 November 2020 that they [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/74bzDF | 21:54 |
joerg | de-facto: >>problem *really* is not the lack of their knowledge,<< let;s rephrase tis: the problem is not lack of info and expertise, the problem is lack of mere common sense | 22:09 |
joerg | cognitive dissonance ;-) | 22:09 |
Brainstorm | New from NPR: 'We Know We Are Asking A Lot.' Los Angeles County Announces New Stay At Home Order: The three-week order prohibits all public and private gatherings with individuals outside of a person's household, with limited exceptions for religious services and protests. → https://is.gd/AmGkez | 22:31 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Accumulating evidence suggests anti-TNF therapy needs to be given trial priority in COVID-19 treatment (80 votes) | https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanrhe/article/PIIS2665-9913(20)30309-X/fulltext | https://redd.it/k2ainp | 22:33 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: U.S. hospitalizations top 90,000 for the first time (10080 votes) | https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-hospitalizations-top-90000-united-states/ | https://redd.it/k2ndvc | 22:39 |
de-facto | joerg, as you once stated if this containment is going to be successful then only because people go far beyond the officially published containment requirements, most politicians are simply too incompetent to manage this (all those that think this is going to be sufficient opposing Merkel, Soeder et at) | 22:45 |
LjL | cops down my house are stopping people (so called "riders", delivery people on bicycles who usually ride like crazy because they get fired if their app shows they didn't respect tight deadlines) who try to enter the train station with a bike | 22:48 |
LjL | if they leave the bike outside, i know they can be guaranteed not to find it again | 22:48 |
LjL | i wish the cops had come here when we called them to complain (repeatedly) about idiot kids breaking stuff (railings, signs, etc) and throwing beer bottles onto our building. but maybe those weren't black and exploited enough. | 22:49 |
de-facto | i mean just look at the astronomical stupidity of the ministers so called "compromises": initially it was estimated that a weekly incidence of 35/100k would be controllable by tracing, then 1st compromise by those mentally challenged politicians was "lets raise that to 50/100k" *without* any backup by a (scientific or statistic) reason. Now all ministers simply ignoring that "red traffic light" arguing why they need to do exceptions to | 22:54 |
de-facto | those 50/100k with their individual region they all passed with flying speed those 50/100k, so instead of doing the thing that was once agreed upon (doing a hard lockdown to bring it back to 50/100k) what did they agreed upon now? any guesses? | 22:54 |
de-facto | yeah indeed they are insane enough to agree upon another threshold for increasing containment... 200/100k (1) | 22:54 |
de-facto | i cant think of any way to see that as reasonable or sane management | 22:55 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: Symptomless and spreading, South Korea battles surge in silent COVID-19 cases → https://is.gd/hTxuXq | 22:56 |
de-facto | so what do those ministers understand under "longterm strategy"? that they agree upon lifting the insufficient restrictions for Christmas and New Years holidays... why? because they *think* they know how incidence looks in one month from now with lowering temperatures, shopping etc pp | 23:02 |
de-facto | this is pure insanity, no expert would even talk about lifting restrictions in one month because its clear that this is *unknown* to any sane predictions | 23:02 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Experts: Virus numbers could be erratic after Thanksgiving: The coronavirus testing numbers that have guided much of the nation's response to the pandemic are likely to be erratic over the next week or so, experts said Friday, as fewer people get tested during the Thanksgiving holiday weekend and testing sites observe shorter hours. → https://is.gd/CbmBnU | 23:08 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Europe virus toll crosses 400,000, shops reopen in France: Coronavirus deaths topped 400,000 Saturday in Europe, the world's second worst-hit region, as parts of the continent began to reopen shops for the holiday season. → https://is.gd/5qc5Ad | 23:20 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: REGN-COV2 antibodies prevent and treat SARS-CoV-2 infection in rhesus macaques and hamsters (80 votes) | https://science.sciencemag.org/content/370/6520/1110 | https://redd.it/k2rznc | 23:21 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Vaccine giant to apply for pandemic licence in 'two weeks': The world's largest vaccine manufacturer by volume said Saturday it would apply for an emergency licence for a coronavirus vaccine within two weeks, and that confusion over the efficacy would not delay its distribution. → https://is.gd/czkNDm | 23:33 |
joerg | %covid cadiz | 23:42 |
Brainstorm | joerg: Sorry, cadiz not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name. | 23:42 |
joerg | %covid Sevilla | 23:42 |
Brainstorm | joerg: Sorry, Sevilla not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name. | 23:42 |
LjL | %cases andalusia | 23:43 |
Brainstorm | LjL: In Andalusia, Spain, there have been 229104 confirmed cases (2.7% of the population) and 3903 deaths (1.7% of cases) as of 16 hours ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Andalusia for time series data. | 23:43 |
LjL | i only have data by autonomous community | 23:43 |
Arsanerit | 22:48:34 < LjL> if they leave the bike outside, i know they can be guaranteed not to find it again | 23:51 |
Arsanerit | LjL: no locks? | 23:51 |
Brainstorm | Updates for New Hampshire, US: +689 cases (now 20002), +6 deaths (now 523) since 23 hours ago | 23:51 |
LjL | Arsanerit, locks can be picked, you know | 23:51 |
Arsanerit | LjL: A good lock takes a while to be picked, those delivery drivers don't spend a long time in the station. | 23:52 |
LjL | but usually they aren't picked, they just break the chains | 23:52 |
LjL | ? | 23:52 |
LjL | they're going to the station to take the train | 23:52 |
LjL | they don't spend a long time in the station, but they spend a long time away from the bikes | 23:52 |
LjL | 'cause they're going home | 23:52 |
Arsanerit | Oh, I'm confused. | 23:52 |
Arsanerit | I thought they were going to a restaurant in the station to pick up food. | 23:52 |
LjL | lol no | 23:52 |
Arsanerit | Why can't you enter the train station with a bike? What if I take my bike on the train? | 23:53 |
LjL | police would stop the restaurant, not stop the bikers | 23:53 |
Arsanerit | Is this a corona rule? | 23:53 |
Arsanerit | Are restaurants closed even for take-away or delivery? | 23:53 |
LjL | well i don't really know. currently we're under full lockdown, which ends in... 8 minutes | 23:53 |
LjL | and i'm sure that has something to do with police being around | 23:53 |
LjL | they are not closed for delivery | 23:53 |
LjL | they are closed for take-away | 23:53 |
LjL | i'm not sure if this counts as take-away or as delivery considering these people have really "special" "contracts" | 23:54 |
Arsanerit | I got stopped once by security for walking my bike in a shopping centre, but I had come off the train with my bike and the shopping centre was directly attached to the train station, I was just trying to get out... | 23:54 |
LjL | did you successfully explain this? | 23:54 |
Arsanerit | Yes. | 23:54 |
LjL | nice, it isn't always like that with authority | 23:55 |
Arsanerit | They told me to find another exit from the train station that didn't connect to the shopping centre, which was possible. | 23:55 |
joerg | LjL: thanks | 23:55 |
Arsanerit | goodnight and good luck with the remains of the lockdown | 23:55 |
Arsanerit | Germany keeps saying we're in a lockdown light which isn't true at all, lockdown means people are supposed to stay home and there is no such order. | 23:55 |
Arsanerit | zzz | 23:55 |
LjL | Arsanerit, well, three minutes from now, we'll be in a lockdown light too | 23:57 |
LjL | maybe i'll have a walk | 23:57 |
LjL | oh, no i can't | 23:57 |
LjL | there is still the curfew | 23:57 |
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