| LjL | the italian vice-minister of something or other just "confirmed" on tv that we're going to get i'm not sure whether 1.3 or 1.7 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine by January | 00:01 |
|---|---|---|
| Brainstorm | Updates for Uruguay: +80 cases (now 3700), +1 deaths (now 63) since a day ago — US: +155456 cases (now 10.7 million) since a day ago | 00:06 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Falkland Is.: +1 cases (now 14) since 4 months ago — Canada: +4690 cases (now 277313) since 23 hours ago | 00:21 |
| LjL | that was a while with no cases | 00:22 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +156206 cases (now 10.7 million), +1659 deaths (now 247198) since a day ago | 00:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from Science Daily: Viral vaccines preserved without refrigeration: Half of vaccines are wasted annually because they aren't kept cold. Chemical engineers have now discovered a way to stabilize viruses in vaccines with proteins instead of temperature. → https://is.gd/YwFFTO | 00:46 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Colorado, US: +3975 cases (now 142402), +16 deaths (now 2443) since a day ago — US: +148748 cases (now 10.7 million), +1527 deaths (now 247214) since a day ago | 00:50 |
| LjL | US states are continually having record numbers of cases | 00:51 |
| LjL | but the testing has also increased considerably (US-wide, i haven't looked at individual states) | 00:51 |
| LjL | i wonder if it's really picking up pace or it's just an artifact of testing | 00:51 |
| LjL | compared to Europe, it has been remarkably linear so far, at least US-wide again | 00:52 |
| de-facto | Yesterday it was exactly 8 months since WHO officially declared the pandemic | 00:59 |
| LjL | and you didn't tell us so that we may make some fireworks?! | 01:02 |
| Brainstorm | New from NPR: After COVID Diagnosis, Nearly 1 In 5 Are Diagnosed With Mental Disorder: Those recovering from COVID-19 were more likely than other groups of patients to be diagnosed with a mental disorder within three months. The longevity of such problems is not yet clear. → https://is.gd/rJPaSx | 01:04 |
| de-facto | fireworks when vaccinations are done successfully | 01:05 |
| LjL | de-facto, let's make it after 20 years when we're sure the hurried vaccinations don't cause unforeseen long-term issues | 01:06 |
| LjL | you know, just to be on the safe side. fireworks are dangerous | 01:06 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for New Mexico, US: +1487 cases (now 59034), +14 deaths (now 1158) since a day ago — US: +150333 cases (now 10.7 million), +1536 deaths (now 247233) since a day ago | 01:07 |
| de-facto | na it wont take that long, id guess that if no problems show after a year or such its gonna be just fine | 01:07 |
| de-facto | btw what do you mean by linear in terms of US data? | 01:07 |
| de-facto | to me their incidence looks like a slow exponential ontop of their previous plateau, actually with raising R=1.2 value so over exponential | 01:11 |
| de-facto | %title https://imgur.com/a/OLMN1En https://i.imgur.com/XWFuC2E.png source: http://metrics.covid19-analysis.org/ | 01:12 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From imgur.com: COVID-19 USA: Reproduction and Incidence trends - Album on Imgur | 01:12 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Pharma: Major generic makers will partner with Medicines Patent Pool to pursue voluntary licenses for Covid-19 drugs → https://is.gd/osOmq9 | 01:13 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Idaho, US: +1693 cases (now 77121), +19 deaths (now 733) since a day ago — US: +153010 cases (now 10.7 million), +1557 deaths (now 247273) since a day ago — Switzerland: +56 deaths (now 3113) since 12 hours ago | 01:21 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Moderna Has Completed Case Accrual for First Planned Interim Analysis of its mRNA Vaccine Against COVID-19 (mRNA-1273) (82 votes) | https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-has-completed-case-accrual-first-planned-interim | https://redd.it/jsiqi4 | 01:22 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Persistent fatigue following SARS-CoV-2 infection is common and independent of severity of initial infection (84 votes) | https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0240784 | https://redd.it/jse73u | 01:22 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +149648 cases (now 10.7 million), +1533 deaths (now 247279) since a day ago | 01:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: German health minister says it’s too early to tell if its partial Covid lockdown will be extended: "It will be the end of this week that we might see the results of the new lockdown light we have now," German Health Minister Jens Spahn told CNBC. → https://is.gd/GVlFPf | 01:41 |
| de-facto | so what do they expect from a "lockdown light"? lemme guess is it "results light"? | 01:42 |
| Jigsy | Lockdown sounds too negative. | 01:43 |
| Jigsy | We should call it something more positive! Like lockup! :D | 01:43 |
| de-facto | yeah so they demonstrate that mesures are not nearly enough, hence generate acceptance for more appropriate containment? | 01:44 |
| Jigsy | Yup. | 01:44 |
| de-facto | it all costs something quite valuable: time and resources | 01:44 |
| de-facto | and fatalities | 01:44 |
| de-facto | would we need a "lockdown medium" or can we go directly for the real thing in the next step? | 01:46 |
| LjL | Italy is being an utter shitshow again. this "zoning scheme" really is not working | 01:47 |
| LjL | regions are giving "massaged" data to end up in their favorite color code | 01:47 |
| LjL | luckily it's not a problem here where we're very firmly in the red zone of doom! | 01:48 |
| Jigsy | I like red. | 01:48 |
| Jigsy | A nice warm color. :> | 01:48 |
| de-facto | was the same here id guess, back then when we actually had regions that were *below* threshold values | 01:48 |
| LjL | but we don't | 01:48 |
| LjL | if they are, they're most likely faking it | 01:48 |
| LjL | Campania should be red and instead it's not even orange | 01:49 |
| LjL | (it's yellow, but note there is no green) | 01:49 |
| LjL | honestly i'm not even sure anymore if the government of Campania wants or does not want a lockdown | 01:49 |
| LjL | earlier on, he wanted one, but the central government didn't let it | 01:49 |
| LjL | now it appears the central government would want one, but he's bothered that they'll be locked down for Christmas...? | 01:49 |
| LjL | and yes, Christmas will likely be another absolute shitshow | 01:50 |
| LjL | unless so many people die that we're like "okay, no more kidding now, who cares about Christmas, let's all hunker down" | 01:50 |
| ryouma | they will die too late | 01:50 |
| ryouma | us is already horrifying. thanksgiving could be a country-wide superspreader event. i hope the president-elect is leaning on governors and senators during hte lame duck period. although idk what he would have to promise or threaten. | 01:50 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +149098 cases (now 10.7 million), +1510 deaths (now 247281) since a day ago | 01:51 |
| de-facto | if they just would understand one time that the most aggressive and strict containment is the most efficient in terms of both economic and health costs | 01:51 |
| LjL | meanwhile Trump can keep changing heads of this and that | 01:51 |
| de-facto | instead they slowly let the fire cook everyone instead of extinguishing it | 01:51 |
| de-facto | if there is a fire, why not put every effort into extinguishing it the fastest and most aggressive way to prevent the building from collapsing? | 01:53 |
| ryouma | you are right that analogies might be key. virus worse than terrorism and all the other things that freedom is thrown away in the name of. | 01:53 |
| ryouma | think ofhte children and all that | 01:54 |
| ryouma | patriot act had support because a few thousand died. but mask wearing is evil. something is wrong with that equation. | 01:55 |
| de-facto | as long as the virus prevalence is there and incidence potentially may explode due to that, everything is going to be pressured by that, not only economy | 01:55 |
| ryouma | what were prevcalence and incidence again? | 01:55 |
| LjL | ryouma, right now the EU council is mulling a draft that would basically ban true E2E encryption | 01:55 |
| LjL | "because" there were a few terror attacks, in particular the one in Vienna | 01:55 |
| LjL | or maybe really because we're too busy with COVID to care | 01:55 |
| ryouma | same basic idea as patriot act then | 01:56 |
| de-facto | as long as the virus is widespread and daily new cases may potentially explode (due to susceptible people) impact from the pandemic wont go away | 01:56 |
| ryouma | "would this have stopped the event that is being used to ram it through the parliament/congress?" | 01:56 |
| de-facto | i mean freedom also depends on economic well being, it generates wealth and possibilities to do things hence broadens choices, but that needs a plan for the foreseeable future for investments and decisions about strategies | 01:59 |
| de-facto | under the Sword of Damocles (pandemic) such investments will be hold back to have some "reserve" in case things go bad to survive. | 02:01 |
| de-facto | thats a self amplifying effect, no investment => no growth, no growth => no economic gain; no investment => | 02:02 |
| de-facto | hence the necessity to end this uncertainty about the future with the most aggressive and strict containment | 02:03 |
| de-facto | then economic growth will come back, look at China. | 02:03 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +148558 cases (now 10.7 million), +1513 deaths (now 247290) since a day ago | 02:05 |
| de-facto | the best investment is to contain and end all infection chains and bring incidence down at any price. thats my opinion. | 02:06 |
| de-facto | yet Schools are still open | 02:06 |
| de-facto | we have 300k children in quarantine they said in the news | 02:06 |
| de-facto | due to outbreaks in schools | 02:06 |
| de-facto | like, at what point will they understand that its a bad idea to leave schools open? | 02:07 |
| ryouma | what were prevcalence and incidence again? | 02:07 |
| LjL | ryouma, you mean what the terms mean? prevalence is how many people "have it" in a population, and incidence is how many people get it in a unit of time | 02:10 |
| de-facto | prevalence = cases per amount of citizens (how widespread it is, e.g. 10.7M cases per 330M citizens = 3.24% detected cases), incidence = new cases per duration and amount of citizens (the rate of new infections per amount of citizens, e.g. weekly 265 *new* cases per 100k citizens = 7 * (125k / 330M) / 100k ) | 02:14 |
| de-facto | so for example in Germany they had regional limits at weekly incidence of 35 and 50 per 100k, afaik no region has that anymore, hence most are darkest of red right now | 02:16 |
| de-facto | no use in trying to "massage" data because all thresholds are already exceeded and resources begin to get overwhelmed. id way well done. | 02:16 |
| LjL | begin, you say | 02:17 |
| LjL | i've seen footage in italy with ambulances basically acting as hospital rooms outside the hospital, with food being brought to them | 02:17 |
| de-facto | prevalence mainly is relevant for accumulation of recoveries over time, hence seroprevalence refers to the part of the population that carries antibodies | 02:17 |
| LjL | for kicks, i could look at the waiting times at various ERs in Milan, i don't have the app for that installed (proprietary SafetyNet-requiring bullshit) but i can steal it from someone else | 02:18 |
| LjL | but it's probably not too terrible at 2am, i should check tomorrow | 02:18 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +150960 cases (now 10.7 million), +1620 deaths (now 247397) since a day ago | 02:20 |
| ryouma | what is the term for "probably contagious cases per capita" | 02:23 |
| de-facto | now we can put both into relation: since incidence is the time change of prevalence (e.g. how many daily *new* cases to add to the total accumulated cases) we can see it like a time derivative with the granularity of a day or such, even can be written as differential coefficient (e.g. calculus): incidence = d/dt prevalence = (cases(t) - cases(t - dt)) / dt with dt = 1 day | 02:24 |
| ryouma | prevalence is not "have had it" but "have it and have not been reported recovered" or such? | 02:25 |
| de-facto | ryouma, active cases per capita = (SUM(cases) - SUM(recoveries) - SUM(fatalities)) per captita | 02:25 |
| LjL | ryouma, i'm not sure there is a term for that. besides, what counts as a contagious case for a given person? just every contagious person in their country? why specifically their country, unless borders are closed at that level? if not the country, then how do you define the subset of people that *may* end up infecting a given person? | 02:25 |
| de-facto | the problem with that is that: how to define a recovery? hence recoveries are estimates derived from "not died in time" | 02:26 |
| ryouma | i am assuming recovery means the hospital claims you are better even if you are not; i am assuming jurisdiction is measured with no difference to other measures like new cases or whatever | 02:27 |
| ryouma | although all this is becoming moot as us and eu are saturated | 02:27 |
| ryouma | almost as if moot | 02:27 |
| de-facto | for example worldometers says US got ~3.7M active cases right now, hence hopefully in quarantine | 02:28 |
| de-facto | but then what about the undetected cases? thats hard to estimate, maybe its like 2.7x the detected? maybe its 10x? | 02:28 |
| LjL | de-facto, i know! we should set aside 1% of our testing capacity to investigate how much that number is | 02:30 |
| LjL | i bet nobody has thought of that before | 02:30 |
| de-facto | YES | 02:30 |
| de-facto | how long is the average period from infection to death? | 02:31 |
| de-facto | and what is the assumed over all demographics infection fatality rate? | 02:32 |
| de-facto | like 14d and 0.5% or such? | 02:32 |
| de-facto | %title https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0048969720319070 | 02:34 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.sciencedirect.com: Real-time estimation and prediction of mortality caused by COVID-19 with patient information based algorithm - ScienceDirect | 02:34 |
| de-facto | "The estimated days from hospital admission to death was 13" | 02:34 |
| LjL | that seems short, i thought i had seen bigger numbers | 02:35 |
| LjL | as to the global IFR, who the heck knows? | 02:35 |
| LjL | %cases world | 02:36 |
| de-facto | meh i dont like that paper, where was that italy report about hospital stats | 02:36 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for France: +23710 cases (now 1.9 million) since 23 hours ago — Netherlands: +3899 cases (now 425538) since 23 hours ago — Canada: +4373 cases (now 277970), +56 deaths (now 10704) since a day ago — US: +150445 cases (now 10.7 million) since a day ago | 02:36 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In World, there have been 52.6 million confirmed cases (0.7% of the population) and 1.3 million deaths (2.5% of cases) as of 2 minutes ago. 887.9 million tests were performed (5.9% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.3% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 3.4% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=World for time series data. | 02:36 |
| LjL | i'll go with 0.3% to 3.4% | 02:36 |
| de-facto | %title https://www.epicentro.iss.it/en/coronavirus/sars-cov-2-analysis-of-deaths https://www.epicentro.iss.it/en/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_4_november_2020.pdf | 02:37 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto, the URL could not be loaded | 02:37 |
| de-facto | well YOU cant load that | 02:37 |
| LjL | i have! | 02:38 |
| LjL | https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_20_marzo_eng.pdf | 02:38 |
| de-facto | so they say its like 12 days for onset of symptoms to death | 02:38 |
| LjL | it's on the last page on my URL | 02:38 |
| LjL | but yours is more recent | 02:38 |
| LjL | it looks like it changed a LOT during august | 02:39 |
| LjL | younger people, or less overcrowded hospitals? | 02:39 |
| de-facto | so then its 12 days delay time between incidence and fatalities? like people get symptoms and get tested or hospitalized, then either die or recover? | 02:39 |
| LjL | no i think recovery takes longer | 02:40 |
| LjL | iirc | 02:40 |
| de-facto | well i want to know from how long ago those fatalities came in terms of incidence | 02:40 |
| de-facto | like maybe 12days + 2days for reporting ~ 2 weeks? | 02:40 |
| LjL | it's from symptom onset | 02:41 |
| LjL | ah well reporting death | 02:41 |
| LjL | yeah i guess | 02:41 |
| LjL | 2 days may be optimistic for italy right now, but maybe at other times | 02:41 |
| de-facto | e.g. fatalities(t) = CFR * incidence(t - 14d) ? | 02:41 |
| LjL | you mean i.e. | 02:41 |
| ryouma | are there precedents for populations that do not take pandemics seriously suddenly doing so? i don't mean hiv/aids, which had a moment like that, but plague or sp(anis flu. and what occurred. as in, widespread panic etc. | 02:42 |
| ryouma | (or widespread reason) | 02:42 |
| LjL | i'm looking at your formula | 02:42 |
| LjL | i'm not sure i can convince myself it works but i'm also not sure why :P | 02:42 |
| LjL | in reality there will be a bell curve of deaths around 12 (or 14) days | 02:43 |
| LjL | shouldn't that be characterized? or does it make no difference ultimately? | 02:43 |
| de-facto | yeah of course just for a rough estimate i mean | 02:43 |
| LjL | de-facto, shouldn't we also be able to just run a time correlation between the cases and deaths curves? we've had a full cycle before | 02:44 |
| ryouma | if there are few measures, what is the width of the curve typically? | 02:44 |
| de-facto | thats what i want to do | 02:44 |
| LjL | just feed it into scipy or something :P | 02:44 |
| LjL | de-facto, i mean, *derive* the time from the two curves | 02:44 |
| LjL | align them | 02:44 |
| LjL | ryouma, i guess... that could be determined, after aligning the case curve with the death curve, by seeing how much "larger" the death curve is compared to the case curve | 02:46 |
| LjL | i'd expect it to be slightly fatter | 02:46 |
| LjL | the amount of fatness at the sides should let you know the shape of the bell curve...? | 02:46 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +150863 cases (now 10.7 million) since a day ago — New Zealand: +3 cases (now 1991) since 23 hours ago | 02:51 |
| ryouma | i want to know when the peak occur and then get back down to current levels. | 02:53 |
| de-facto | now i want to assume fatalities(t) = IFR * infections(t - 14d) hence infections(t - 14d) = fatalities(t) / IFR with a given IFR (e.g. idk like 0.5% or such?) so then with Incidence(t-14d) = fatalities(t) / CFR one could get the factor for dark "unknown" cases per reported as factor(t-14d)=infections(t-14d) / incidence(t-14d) = CFR / IFR or infections(t-14d) = factor(t-14d) * incidence(t-14d) = CFR/IFR * incidence(t-14d) | 02:57 |
| de-facto | hmm maybe its even easier when we can just assume a given IFR and calculate an CFR | 02:57 |
| de-facto | i mean CFR = SUM(fatalities) / SUM(cases) and IFR = SUM(fatalities) / SUM(estimated citizens with antibodies) | 02:58 |
| de-facto | e.g. for US CFR = 247 233 / 10 698 169 = 0.023 or 2.3% | 03:00 |
| de-facto | assuming an IFR of 0.5% one would get a factor = 2.3% / 0.5% = 4.6 | 03:01 |
| de-facto | so current fatalities(t) = 1050 hence incidence(t-x) = fatalities(t) / CFR = 1050 / 2.3% = 45652 and that incidence was like Oct 7th, that is 34 days in the past, hmmm | 03:08 |
| de-facto | maybe CFR did drop? | 03:09 |
| de-facto | well looks like it, e.g. 125k daily new cases / 1050 daily new fatalities is 0.84% | 03:10 |
| de-facto | meh wrong | 03:11 |
| de-facto | with t=10th Nov and fatalities(t) = 1050 daily new fatalities would correspond to incidence(t-14d) = incidence(27th Oct) = 73 142 hence CFR = 1050/73142 = 1.44%, right? | 03:14 |
| de-facto | are there any IFR values published for USA from seroprevalence studies? | 03:19 |
| de-facto | idk then i guess IFR=0.5% is that okish? that would give factor(t-14d) = CFR(t-14d) / IFR(t-14d) = 1.44% / 0.5% = 2.88 so those 73 142 detected cases at 27th of Oct would really be 73 142 * 2.88 = 210 649 cases | 03:28 |
| de-facto | or if that factor did not change too much 14 days into the future from 27th of Oct for the 125k cases at 10th of Nov it would mean really there were 360k infections on 10th of Nov in US | 03:29 |
| de-facto | %cases USA | 03:30 |
| ryouma | %cases usa | 03:31 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: In US, there have been 10.7 million confirmed cases (3.2% of the population) and 247397 deaths (2.3% of cases) as of 47 minutes ago. 161.8 million tests were performed (6.6% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.1% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 3.6% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data. | 03:32 |
| Brainstorm | ryouma: In US, there have been 10.7 million confirmed cases (3.2% of the population) and 247397 deaths (2.3% of cases) as of 47 minutes ago. 161.8 million tests were performed (6.6% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.1% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 3.6% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data. | 03:32 |
| de-facto | Brainstorm behave | 03:32 |
| de-facto | ok so CFR ~ 1.4% is not too bad i guess | 03:33 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for France: +32680 cases (now 1.9 million) since a day ago — Netherlands: +5251 cases (now 426890), +81 deaths (now 8232) since a day ago | 03:35 |
| de-facto | hmm if active cases also would be scaled by that factor it would mean currently we have 3.7M active cases in US hence really 2.88 * 3.7M = 10.66M with 328.2M population that would be 10.66/328.2 = 3.2% of US population is currently active but only 3.7/328.2 = 1.1% knows about it? | 03:37 |
| tinwhiskers | %title https://nypost.com/2020/11/11/ticketmaster-to-require-negative-covid-19-test-vaccination/ | 03:39 |
| Brainstorm | tinwhiskers: From nypost.com: Ticketmaster exploring negative COVID-19 test, vaccination | 03:39 |
| tinwhiskers | First immunity passport? | 03:40 |
| de-facto | so possibly 3.2% - 1.1% = 2.1% is active but not quarantined? that would be every 47th or such... | 03:40 |
| tinwhiskers | Requires negative test within 72 hours or vaccination - Start expecting to see more of these. | 03:40 |
| tinwhiskers | At least it might encourage people to have the vaccine when it is available. | 03:41 |
| de-facto | with an assumed safety margin, e.g. active cases (not recovered yet) would they be half of the time be infectious or such? | 03:42 |
| de-facto | that might bring it down to 1 in 100 ppl | 03:43 |
| de-facto | actually that sounds crazy high, can it be really that widespread in US? | 03:44 |
| ryouma | rt is high also | 03:44 |
| tinwhiskers | 3% sounds about right on average. | 03:45 |
| ryouma | i wonder if the3re will be a point when the homer simpsons realize the virus is serious and then what will they do | 03:46 |
| tinwhiskers | by the time they would realise that the vaccine rollout will be well under way, so they'll always think there was nothing to it. | 03:47 |
| tinwhiskers | kinda like Y2K. A lot of work went on to ensure it was a non-event. | 03:47 |
| ryouma | with the rise in cases now and some hostpitals overwhelmed already and thanksgiving in a coupld of weeks? i'm not so sure. | 03:49 |
| ryouma | the vaccine rollout is not exactly on time like y2k work which took yeras before the event | 03:49 |
| tinwhiskers | yes, perhaps you're right. it is all looking pretty gloomy. | 03:49 |
| tinwhiskers | But you have to consider the amount of cognitive dissonance those people can withstand. | 03:50 |
| tinwhiskers | maybe if hospital systems collapse sufficiently and many more people start dying they will realise | 03:51 |
| tinwhiskers | I'm expecting we'll be seeing vaccine programmes begin in about March or April? What do you think? | 03:53 |
| tinwhiskers | Could even begin in late Jan or early Feb for front line workers. | 03:54 |
| de-facto | well yeah but pressure by the pandemic will intensify quite a bit if things will remain progressing like they do right now | 03:54 |
| tinwhiskers | but that would be best case. | 03:54 |
| de-facto | remember the crazy results from extrapolating current incidence exponentially, back then i assumed a factor of 2.7 instead of 2.88 | 03:55 |
| tinwhiskers | yeah, I think we'll see some restrictions on gathering being tightened enough to dampen things a little, so it may remain non-obvious to those people. | 03:55 |
| tinwhiskers | yeah. heh | 03:55 |
| tinwhiskers | That assumed no action would be taken, but I think some action will occur. | 03:56 |
| de-facto | so if that was the absolute worst case scenario even if most of it could be prevented pressure will be really severe during this winter | 03:56 |
| tinwhiskers | nothing near what *should* happen, but maybe enough to allow the wilfully ignorant to remain so. | 03:56 |
| tinwhiskers | At least Europe is looking a bit better. | 03:58 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: Two-thirds of Americans would support their state instituting a one-month COVID-19 lockdown (10427 votes) | https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/11/10/americans-support-covid-19-lockdowns | https://redd.it/jshwo2 | 03:59 |
| tinwhiskers | wow | 03:59 |
| tinwhiskers | well, that would help a great deal | 03:59 |
| tinwhiskers | thanks CoronaBot :-) | 04:00 |
| ryouma | ok several qs. first, is yougov a us gov thing? who runs it? second, did theyask the constitutional question after the lockdown question was asked? | 04:07 |
| jacklsw | finally they choose to address covid more seriously | 04:07 |
| ryouma | but i am impressed at the numbers | 04:08 |
| ryouma | that should give the president elect a bit of leverage to talk govs into action behind the scenes | 04:08 |
| ryouma | assuming my total unsupported hope has any basis | 04:08 |
| ryouma | spring lockdown was really rough as my dentist refused to do emergencies. i just went to the dentist and he failed to do any work, despite us insisting that he pelase prioritize that over examining mouth etc. due to my inability to leave house. he had me fill out forms, measured gums, etc. i will need a dentist for emergencies. | 04:12 |
| Skunny | that sucks | 04:31 |
| Skunny | pliers | 04:31 |
| de-facto | With R(t) = 1.2 + 0.2 t / 45 (hence linear increase of R(t) with time by 0.2 points per 45 days like in https://imgur.com/a/OLMN1En ) and assuming N(t) = N0 R(t)^(t/5.2) = 125k R(t)^(t/5.2) = 125k (1.2 + 0.2 t / 45)^(t/5.2) and a factor of 2.88 = CFR/IFR one would get currently 328.2M - 2.88*10.7M = 297.4M susceptible hence 0.6*328.2M - 2.88*10.7M = 166.1M infections required to reach 60% seroprevalence in USA | 04:51 |
| de-facto | so taking the definitive time integral for N(t) from 0 to 64.4 days those 166.1M would be accumulated in ~ 64days from Nov 10th hence until 13th of Jan 2021 | 04:58 |
| de-facto | that would be the worst case, so non-pharmaceutical measures would have to prevent that | 04:59 |
| de-facto | R(0) = 1.2 (Nov 10th) should not be allowed to increase to R(64) = 1.48 (Jan 13th) | 05:00 |
| de-facto | actually it cant do that because susceptible wear off, hence it should approach 1 at some point if immunity would last for that timespan and no excape mutations occur | 05:03 |
| de-facto | hmmm | 05:03 |
| de-facto | yeah forget that extrapolation, it would need a differential equation to properly include the wear off in susceptible e.g. a SEIR model or such | 05:06 |
| de-facto | such extrapolations only can be done for short amount of time | 05:08 |
| de-facto | 64days seem to be way too long | 05:08 |
| de-facto | yet i wonder, how come R seems to linearly increase since begin of Oct R~1 to R~1.2 in USA? | 05:10 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Indonesia signs $1 billion loan deal with Australia for COVID-19 relief → https://is.gd/1YPwuq | 05:35 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Belgium: +7916 cases (now 515391), +197 deaths (now 13758) since a day ago | 05:37 |
| de-facto | RKI Germany: infections +21 866 (727 553 total), fatalities +215 (11 982 total) | 05:40 |
| de-facto | Germany got 40k schools with 800k teachers and 11M students: End of Sept there were 50k students in quarantine (0.45%), today (42 days later) 300k (!) students are quarantined (2.7%) and 30k (!!) teachers are quarantined (3.7%) | 05:46 |
| de-facto | holding schools open is prioritized above everything else, i think that is a mistake. | 05:47 |
| de-facto | So assuming N(t) = N(t0) R^(t/tserial) <==> R = [ N(t) / N(t0) ] ^ (tserial / t) = [ 300k / 50k ] ^ (5.2 / 42) = 6 ^ 0.1238 = 1.25 with a tserial = 5.2 days or R = [ 300k / 50k ] ^ (4 / 42) = 6 ^ 0.09524 = 1.18 | 06:05 |
| de-facto | same for active cases in Germany R = [ 259294 / 28044 ] ^ (5.2 / 42) = 9.25 ^ 0.1238 = 1.32 with tserial = 5.2 days or R = [ 259294 / 28044 ] ^ (4 / 42) = 9.25 ^ 0.09524 = 1.24 | 06:05 |
| de-facto | hence the ratio for reproduction for average / schools would be 1.32 / 1.25 = 1.056 for tserial = 5.2 days or 1.24 / 1.18 = 1.051 for tserial = 4 days | 06:06 |
| de-facto | that is quite similar actually and probably within the range of error or such (i dont know exact dates for the school numbers other than "end Sept" and "today 2020-11-11") | 06:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from This Week In Virology: TWiV 680: Long-term COVID and ME/CFS: Mady, Fiona, and David join TWiV to discuss patients with long-term COVID and similarities and differences with ME/CFS. → https://is.gd/bBZ8yq | 06:12 |
| de-facto | but schools are the connection between 20-30 families (class size) and that common denominator might begin to play a non-linear role once active prevalence reaches a size where probability raises that one in such a group currently is infectious, e.g. active/population = 259294 / 83783942 = 0.31% but so about 1 in 323 or every 10th class of 30 if evenly distributed but what if reach 2.60M active cases instead of 260k at some point? | 06:16 |
| de-facto | Multiplied by the factor of dark cases, not sure how big that one is for Germany | 06:16 |
| de-facto | afaik there were studies in schools in Germany Bavaria that 47% of infected students are asymptomatic and that seroprevalence is 6-fold of testing prevalence, hence that would be the dark number there | 06:18 |
| tinwhiskers | Another community case in NZ today. Too soon to say if it's a new cluster but it *may* have been simmering for a while. | 06:22 |
| tinwhiskers | If backward contact tracing doesn't show a link to the previous outbreak from quarantine then alert levels will be raised again in Auckland. People have been advised to work from home, and redouble distancing, mask wearing and hygiene measures. | 06:24 |
| tinwhiskers | We're awaiting sequencing and tracing results, which should be complete in 1-2 days, and then a call will be made on whether to raise the alert level (and therefore reintroduce stricter lockdown rules). | 06:27 |
| de-facto | what would be possible import paths assuming the case can not be linked to quarantined? | 06:28 |
| tinwhiskers | oh, it may be linked to quarantine still, but the question is whether it's linked to the previous cluster that escaped quarantine or a new cluster. | 06:29 |
| tinwhiskers | although frozen goods are considered the cause for one of the previous outbreaks that bypassed quarantine. | 06:30 |
| de-facto | ah it was a local cluster that was quarantined incompletely and not travelers quarantined from overseas? | 06:31 |
| tinwhiskers | (there is no suggestion this case is due to that though) | 06:31 |
| tinwhiskers | It is a new case in a person living in the Auckland CDB with no known links to the previous outbreak, but contact tracing and sequencing will confirm. | 06:31 |
| de-facto | yeah i heard of that frozen food theory, i think its quite interesting because such things only can be determined in a very low incidence environment such as NZ | 06:31 |
| tinwhiskers | yeah | 06:32 |
| tinwhiskers | China reported another case of a frozen goods case from German pork imports. | 06:32 |
| tinwhiskers | just a few days ago | 06:32 |
| de-facto | in other places it would be completely impossible to find such transmission paths, hence my curiosity | 06:32 |
| tinwhiskers | yeah | 06:33 |
| de-facto | also the "stuttering" of incidence in clustered outbreaks only can be seen in very low incidence envs, e.g. determine overdispersion param k for clusters | 06:33 |
| tinwhiskers | yeah | 06:34 |
| de-facto | would be awesome if they did complete seroprevalence screenings after a new cluster was quarantined | 06:34 |
| tinwhiskers | so the hope is that this person is somehow linked to the previous cluster otherwise we have to take more serious measures again. | 06:34 |
| de-facto | and before of course to compare | 06:34 |
| de-facto | that would be the only way to get hard numbers on that | 06:34 |
| tinwhiskers | however, considering where this person has been and what they have done (working while awaiting test results) there's a moderate chance this is the start of a new outbreak, so it will be interesting to watch. | 06:36 |
| de-facto | e.g. if one would know: before that cluster occured in the region there were X people with antibodies among all of them, after the cluster occured and was quarantined and everyone recovered an new test showed X+Y people with antibodies among all of them, so cluster size of Y (hopefully all in quarantine) | 06:36 |
| de-facto | but complete antibody screenings for seroprevalence (and really everyone would have to be included) are crazy expensive so its a bit unrealistic | 06:37 |
| tinwhiskers | She lives in an apartment block with a number of shared facilities as well. There's obviously quite a lot of concern in that building. | 06:37 |
| tinwhiskers | having seroprevalence surveys prior to an outbreak seems difficult unless you do the entire country. | 06:38 |
| tinwhiskers | oh, I suppose random sampling would be fine. | 06:40 |
| de-facto | nope in this case random sampling cant be representative because it completely could miss a cluster | 06:40 |
| tinwhiskers | I mean for the "before* prevalence. | 06:41 |
| tinwhiskers | "before" | 06:41 |
| de-facto | extrapolation only would be representative when assuming a somewhat evenly distributed prevalence in the sample and whole of population | 06:42 |
| tinwhiskers | doing a complete survey post-cluster is achievable but you can't realistically do a nationwide pre-cluster prevalence. | 06:42 |
| de-facto | so i guess depending on the assumed over all estimated prevalence the "probing size" would have to be really large to be representative | 06:42 |
| de-facto | yeah its unrealistic because there are so few cases | 06:43 |
| tinwhiskers | We don't have the capability to do 5 million tests | 06:43 |
| tinwhiskers | maybe I'm misunderstanding | 06:44 |
| de-facto | yeah thats what i mean, its a "would be nice to study" but unrealistic resource requirements | 06:48 |
| tinwhiskers | oh. ok. yeah. | 06:48 |
| Brainstorm | New from "Cluster 5" on Wikipedia: AnomieBOT: Dating maintenance tags: {{Cn}}: Dating maintenance tags: {{Cn}} ← Previous revision Revision as of 05:45, 12 November 2020 Line 5: Line 5: ==Name and mutations== ==Name and mutations== − In Denmark there have been five [[Gene cluster|clusters]] of mink variants of SARS-CoV-2; the Danish [[Statens Serum [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/74bzDF | 06:49 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +22401 cases (now 738094) since a day ago — Curacao, Netherlands: +51 cases (now 1182) since a day ago — Manitoba, Canada: +430 cases (now 9308), +9 deaths (now 123) since a day ago — Falkland Islands (Malvinas), United Kingdom: +1 cases (now 14) since 4 months ago | 07:05 |
| de-facto | nice thats realistic for germany rki says 21866 | 07:11 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Delhi, India: +8593 cases (now 459975), +85 deaths (now 7228) since a day ago — C. Valenciana, Spain: +4272 cases (now 77423), +63 deaths (now 1970) since 2 days ago — Emilia-Romagna, Italy: +2428 cases (now 78283) since a day ago — Lower Saxony, Germany: +1767 cases (now 50167), +25 deaths (now 868) since a day ago | 07:21 |
| Brainstorm | New preprint: Rapid generation of potent antibodies by autonomous hypermutation in yeast by Alon Wellner et al, published on 2020-11-11 at https://biorxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.11.11.378778 [... want %more?] | 07:22 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: New Zealand partially shuts central Auckland over mystery Covid case | World news → https://is.gd/L2yueR | 07:44 |
| Brainstorm | New from BMJ: Seven days in medicine: 4-10 November 2020: Covid-19Stay home if “clinically extremely vulnerable”People in England who are clinically extremely vulnerable will receive letters urging them to stay at home as much as possible, including not... → https://is.gd/EXJR6C | 07:53 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Ukraine President Zelenskiy hospitalised due to COVID-19 → https://is.gd/yYS2WL | 08:03 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Georgia: +3120 cases (now 69681), +33 deaths (now 599) since 23 hours ago | 08:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Routine testing for COVID-19 can make surgery safer: study: Routine testing patients for COVID-19 before major surgery could reduce the risk of respiratory complications and save lives, a new study reveals. → https://is.gd/eJ4FwV | 09:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Life after COVID hospitalization: Study shows major lasting effects on health, work and more: Surviving a case of COVID-19 that's bad enough to land you in the hospital is hard enough. But life after the hospital stay—and especially after an intensive care stay—is no bed of roses, either, according to a new study. → https://is.gd/Fj8oyy | 09:17 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Cyprus locks down southwest over surge in coronavirus cases: Cyprus put its entire southwest under a strict 19-day lockdown Wednesday, banning any non-essential movement of people and shuttering bars and restaurants after a string of escalating restrictions failed to curb a sharp increase in coronavirus infections. → https://is.gd/anHfli | 09:29 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Unwelcome milestone: California nears million COVID-19 cases: A month ago, Antonio Gomez III was a healthy 46-year-old struggling like so many others to balance work and parenting during the coronavirus pandemic. → https://is.gd/BVHCZ9 | 09:41 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Italian hospitals face breaking point in fall virus surge: Dr. Luca Cabrini was certain his hospital in the heart of Lombardy's lake district would reach its breaking point caring for 300 COVID-19 patients. So far, virus patients fill 500 beds and counting. → https://is.gd/394NlN | 09:52 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: US hospitals again under pressure with COVID on the rise: After several weeks of rapidly rising coronavirus cases, hospitals around the United States are once again overwhelmed, forcing local authorities to take new measures to cope with the pandemic. → https://is.gd/2MVCfF | 10:01 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for El Salvador: +885 cases (now 36030) since 37 minutes ago | 10:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: With Ron Klain, Biden picks a pandemic-response veteran for chief of staff: President-elect Biden’s selection of Ron Klain, the former federal “Ebola czar,” as White House chief of staff immediately put a pandemic-response veteran at the highest levels of government. → https://is.gd/pABmGc | 10:41 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Croatia: +3082 cases (now 75922), +32 deaths (now 925) since 23 hours ago — Estonia: +373 cases (now 6881) since a day ago | 10:50 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Opinion: Philanthropy should help fund exceptional young scientists: We can stop the next #pandemic in its tracks, but to do so, we need the country's brightest young scientists to start working on it now. @MichelsonMedRF @HumanVacProject → https://is.gd/7jEKfe | 10:51 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: UK first country in Europe to cross 50,000 COVID-19 deaths → https://is.gd/DVjNLY | 11:01 |
| omniscum | "We can stop the next #pandemic in its tracks, but to do so, we need the country's brightest young scientists to start working on it now." Scientists also tell us that a plant based diet can solve a large part of climate change, health problems, mass extinction. | 11:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: (news): Will the Covid vaccine be safe for pregnant women? And other questions → https://is.gd/ecVXna | 11:10 |
| omniscum | Nothing happens, though. | 11:12 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Germany sees signs of virus curve flattening: Germany is seeing tentative signs that a surge in coronavirus infections may be easing, the head of the country's disease control agency RKI said on Thursday. → https://is.gd/GuFdnO | 11:20 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Slovakia: +2591 cases (now 81772), +50 deaths (now 464) since a day ago | 11:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Is it safe yet to fly during the pandemic? → https://is.gd/fySsYP | 12:13 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Switzerland: +6924 cases (now 250396), +80 deaths (now 3137) since a day ago — Germany: +222 deaths (now 12100) since 23 hours ago | 12:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from ECDC: Data on testing for COVID-19 by week and country: The downloadable data file contains information about testing volume for COVID-19 by week and country. Each row contains the corresponding data for a country and a week. The file is updated weekly. You may use the data in line with ECDC’s copyright policy. → https://is.gd/1QzArh | 12:42 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Belarus: +1098 cases (now 110455), +5 deaths (now 1027) since a day ago | 12:51 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +225 deaths (now 12103) since a day ago | 13:20 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: 5 things to know before the stock market opens Thursday: Dow futures decline Thursday as Wall Street continued to assess record spikes in new U.S. daily coronavirus cases. → https://is.gd/l0eRFS | 13:56 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Latvia: +533 cases (now 9381), +2 deaths (now 107) since a day ago | 14:20 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: In the pandemic's early days, a third of U.S. adults felt depressed, anxious: As COVID-19 spread across the United States, the severity of its physical health implications quickly became evident. Less clear, however, has been the toll the virus has taken on mental health. → https://is.gd/WHB3IC | 14:24 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: COVID-19 vaccines are coming – how will we know they work and are safe?: Pfizer and BioNTech have just released interim results of their COVID-19 vaccine trial. Although it is not the only vaccine in the late stages of testing, the large size and careful design of the trial, not to mention the promising results, have caused [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/ewaosv | 14:34 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +141326 cases (now 10.7 million), +1462 deaths (now 247425) since a day ago — Netherlands: +5634 cases (now 430453), +89 deaths (now 8304) since a day ago — Switzerland: +97 deaths (now 3168) since 23 hours ago | 14:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Over half of French flout new lockdown rules: survey: Over half of the French have broken the rules governing the second coronavirus lockdown, a survey showed Thursday, half-way through the new confinement period. → https://is.gd/u9QqLb | 14:44 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Post - November 12 | Questions, images, videos, comments, unconfirmed reports, theories, suggestions → https://is.gd/2gCSRe | 14:53 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Austria: +9262 cases (now 181642), +44 deaths (now 1608) since a day ago — Puerto Rico, US: +2121 cases (now 75662), +8 deaths (now 909) since 16 hours ago — US: +145464 cases (now 10.7 million), +1494 deaths (now 247457) since a day ago | 15:05 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +145658 cases (now 10.7 million), +1495 deaths (now 247458) since a day ago | 15:21 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Urgent research into how aging immune system responds to COVID-19 needed: Professor Deborah Dunn-Walters, from the University of Surrey and Chair of the British Society for Immunology COVID-19 and Immunology taskforce, has led an expert taskforce calling for urgent research into how age affects the immune system's response to [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/AuGj80 | 15:21 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +215 deaths (now 12104) since a day ago | 15:51 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: Dr. Fauci says ‘help is on the way’ with vaccines, but doubts Covid can ever be eradicated: Fauci's comments come shortly after Pfizer and BioNTech said their vaccine candidate was more than 90% effective in preventing Covid infections. → https://is.gd/RejJ5p | 16:09 |
| xsperry | "Pfizer's CEO sold $5.6 million in stock the day he announced promising vaccine news" | 16:10 |
| Brainstorm | New from NPR: Ukraine's President Hospitalized With COVID-19: Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who announced Monday he'd tested positive for the coronavirus, has been taken to a Kyiv hospital. A spokeswoman says his symptoms are "nothing serious." → https://is.gd/7UhShZ | 16:19 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +145495 cases (now 10.7 million), +1507 deaths (now 247472) since a day ago | 16:20 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Rome hotels swap tourists for Covid patients: The plush hotel lobby is normally bustling with business travellers and tourists, but now medics in protective gear welcome patients from hospitals struggling with Italy's surge in coronavirus cases. → https://is.gd/qvA088 | 16:29 |
| SocialReject[m] | https://www.bitchute.com/video/Jj4PQbUWJ9Ek/ | 16:35 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Pennsylvania, US: +4864 cases (now 253008), +109 deaths (now 9273) since 22 hours ago — US: +149103 cases (now 10.7 million), +1537 deaths (now 247519) since a day ago — Germany: +220 deaths (now 12132) since a day ago | 16:37 |
| rpifan | any idea if we'll have more lockdowns in Germany | 16:45 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Interactive virtual reality emerges as a new tool for drug design against COVID-19: Bristol scientists have demonstrated a new virtual reality [VR] technique which should help in developing drugs against the SARS-CoV-2 virus—and enable researchers to share models and collaborate in new ways. The innovative tool, created by [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/9ed10f | 16:48 |
| de-facto | afaik they said on Nov 2nd they would re-evaluate midterm e.g. on Monday or such? | 16:48 |
| de-facto | Hopefully they will close schools and go for more aggressive containment in general | 16:49 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +150502 cases (now 10.7 million), +1554 deaths (now 247536) since a day ago — Canada: +4173 cases (now 278636) since a day ago | 16:51 |
| IndoAnon | https://torino.corriere.it/cronaca/cards/troppi-omicidi-suicidi-cosa-succede-provincia-torino/avigliana-delitto-la-balestra_principale_preview.shtm | 16:57 |
| IndoAnon | LjL: again, I heard another rumor that Italy is going to loosen restriction | 16:58 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for North Dakota, US: +1800 cases (now 59173), +11 deaths (now 697) since 19 hours ago — Italy: +37977 cases (now 1.1 million), +636 deaths (now 43589) since a day ago — US: +151429 cases (now 10.7 million), +1559 deaths (now 247548) since a day ago | 17:06 |
| LjL | IndoAnon: page doesn't load... Anyway, right now the restrictions aren't the same across Italy, and whether they are tightened or loosened nominally depends on whether various indicators go up or down | 17:12 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Pill used to treat OCD and anxiety may prevent Covid-19 from worsening, a preliminary study suggests: A small randomized controlled trial suggested that an OCD drug’s immune-modulating effects might be useful treatment for Covid-19 and should be further explored. → https://is.gd/qXjqSQ | 17:18 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Moldova: +1331 cases (now 86038), +19 deaths (now 1969) since a day ago — Vermont, US: +116 cases (now 2651) since 23 hours ago — US: +149951 cases (now 10.7 million) since a day ago | 17:20 |
| IndoAnon | Ah, okay, LjL... I hope they didn't do drastic changes | 17:21 |
| IndoAnon | https://torino.corriere.it/cronaca/cards/troppi-omicidi-suicidi-cosa-succede-provincia-torino/avigliana-delitto-la-balestra_principale_preview.shtml | 17:21 |
| LjL | They changed the status of some regions, but I think in a restrictive sense | 17:21 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Dr. Scott Gottlieb urges Americans to 'find excuses' to stay home during 'one last' Covid surge → https://is.gd/cH46Lj | 17:27 |
| de-facto | %title https://imgur.com/a/tuAdvjc https://i.imgur.com/e6NqiHR.png source: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Projekte_RKI/Nowcasting.html | 17:32 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From imgur.com: COVID-19 Germany: Cases, Cases smoothed, Reproduction, Reproduction smoothed - Album on Imgur | 17:32 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Algeria: +851 cases (now 65108), +18 deaths (now 2111) since a day ago — Arizona, US: +1399 cases (now 266562), +12 deaths (now 6240) since 22 hours ago — US: +149636 cases (now 10.7 million), +1540 deaths (now 247560) since a day ago | 17:35 |
| de-facto | Note the logarithmic scale for the y-axis, the straight sections are exponential on a linear axis | 17:36 |
| de-facto | according to that data from RKI the reproduction would approach endemic R=1, yet thats not enough to wrestle it down to traceable weekly 50 cases per 100k citizens | 17:37 |
| de-facto | We need to hold it significantly below 1 for an extended amount of time | 17:37 |
| LjL | Sigh, people... https://np.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/jsw4eh/comment/gc23sqb | 17:37 |
| de-facto | and again there are at least 3 effects at work: 1) overwhelmed tracing, hence decoupling of cases from incidence 2) overwhelmed testing capacity hence again decoubling from incidence 3) impact on real incidence from non-pharmeceutical measures to contain it | 17:39 |
| LjL | IndoAnon, that doesn't really surprise me since we heard from the start (in china already) that the lockdown had caused a surge in divorces. this is just a more extreme version of the same thing :P | 17:47 |
| Jigsy | Urm, wow. | 17:47 |
| Jigsy | 33K cases today. | 17:47 |
| IndoAnon | yeah, today's people are really fragile, aren't they | 17:47 |
| Jigsy | Guessing everyone is biting that "vaccine" news as a silver bullet. | 17:47 |
| Jigsy | And no longer caring about isolating. | 17:48 |
| IndoAnon | Nuh | 17:49 |
| de-facto | Is there any data about if current vaccines will even prevent the few days of infectiousness status? | 17:49 |
| LjL | Jigsy, that doesn't make sense, you can't see more new cases just based on what happened yesterday or the day before... | 17:50 |
| LjL | we also have more cases in Italy today. i don't know about Britain but in Italy, Thursday is always the day with the most test | 17:50 |
| rpifan | de-facto, yea i hope so | 17:50 |
| Jigsy | True.. | 17:50 |
| LjL | we also have more cases even as a ratio of cases to tests | 17:50 |
| Jigsy | -. | 17:50 |
| IndoAnon | people felt that they could take less care, preventive action Jigsy de-facto | 17:50 |
| rpifan | thats inspite of the fact that i bought train tickets | 17:50 |
| rpifan | and a plane ticket | 17:50 |
| rpifan | to go from barcelona to morroco | 17:50 |
| rpifan | to see my mom | 17:50 |
| rpifan | and i really do wanna see her | 17:50 |
| rpifan | but if you dont put more rules in | 17:51 |
| rpifan | we'll all be dead anyway | 17:51 |
| LjL | Jigsy, anyway these days you really should always look at the ratio of cases to tests, it's not perfect but the absolute number of new cases barely makes any sense | 17:51 |
| Jigsy | ... | 17:51 |
| Jigsy | 3>It follows outbreaks of a “highly pathogenic” H5N8 strain of bird flu in Cheshire, Devon, Gloucestershire and Hertfordshire over the past two weeks. | 17:51 |
| Jigsy | So Bird flu on top of COVID-19... | 17:51 |
| LjL | i heard of that (not in the UK though) | 17:51 |
| LjL | i hope it's rare | 17:51 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +33470 cases (now 1.3 million) since a day ago — Turkey: +2841 cases (now 404894), +88 deaths (now 11233) since a day ago | 17:51 |
| LjL | but i have no real information | 17:51 |
| Jigsy | Deaths haven't been updated yet afaik. ^ | 17:52 |
| Jigsy | Though the site is now saying 595. | 17:52 |
| rpifan | i suspect | 17:52 |
| rpifan | the flu would make it really worse | 17:52 |
| de-facto | rpifan, dont be too fatalistic though, we wont be all dead by the pandemic or such, but yeah it will be a harsh winter for sure | 17:52 |
| rpifan | i enjoy fatality | 17:53 |
| rpifan | its a very existentialist approach to live | 17:53 |
| rpifan | but it's kept ne alive | 17:53 |
| rpifan | inspite of really hard challenges in life | 17:53 |
| snake | LjL, so avoiding the coronavirus is a new normal for humanity? | 17:54 |
| snake | i cant take it | 17:54 |
| snake | how will i attract a mate if i cant even go outside | 17:54 |
| de-facto | if people get their sanity together and follow non-pharmaceutical containment measures such as contact reduction, distancing and wearning personal protection equipment it also will affect other respiratory diseases such as the flu | 17:54 |
| LjL | snake, i'm not sure i can take it either... but wait, it isn't going to mean we'll always have to live like we're doing now | 17:54 |
| snake | LjL, i havent had sex in like 3 years | 17:55 |
| LjL | snake, the vaccine *will* most likely fix the situation with the current strain, and the virus is *not* similar to flu in the way it mutates in animals every single year without fail | 17:55 |
| rpifan | use grindr | 17:55 |
| snake | LjL, ah i see | 17:55 |
| LjL | snake, i could answer that by calling your 3 years and raising you... nevermind | 17:55 |
| snake | rpifan, ha, gaay | 17:55 |
| Jigsy | I haven't had sex in 33 years. | 17:55 |
| Jigsy | Your move. | 17:55 |
| rpifan | lol | 17:55 |
| rpifan | i am gay | 17:55 |
| rpifan | easy to find sex | 17:55 |
| LjL | snake, however i think we can expect that we'll have periodic outbreaks where someone has had contact with a mutated animal strain, and then that particular place will be put into quarantine, and vaccines will have to be developed quickly against the new strain | 17:56 |
| snake | thats like ordering a coke and they say is pepsi ok | 17:56 |
| LjL | snake, and we would probably have to get a new vaccine periodically | 17:56 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Fluvoxamine may prevent serious illness in COVID-19 patients: In a preliminary study of COVID-19 patients with mild-to-moderate disease who were attempting to recover in their homes, researchers at Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis have found that the drug fluvoxamine seems to prevent some of the most [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/Z4yVYx | 17:56 |
| snake | LjL, i see | 17:57 |
| snake | how can i help? | 17:57 |
| snake | i dont know how vaccines are made, but like, i do think i could sink a ton of debt into some really good apartments | 17:57 |
| snake | way better than anything else in my neighborhood | 17:57 |
| de-facto | LjL, well the endemic common cold CoVs have their season every year though, so not too sure about why SARS-CoV-2 would be that different from them in that aspect, e.g. some are from same family of beta-CoVs afaik | 17:58 |
| LjL | rpifan, easy to find HIV too apparently... i don't think being gay per se makes it more or less easy to find sex than being straight. it depends on your attitudes about it which are orthogonal to your sexual orientation except for the fact that in part decades there has been more promiscuity among gay people because of a kind of "they all hate us so what the hell do i care" attitude (and probably other related reasons) | 17:58 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: In fatal COVID-19, the immune response can control the virus but kill the patient (81 votes) | https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/11/10/2021128117 | https://redd.it/jsvbg8 | 17:58 |
| de-facto | so yeah annual vaccine just like the flu might be required indeed | 17:58 |
| rpifan | thats true LjL but its remains true till today | 17:58 |
| LjL | de-facto, i'm not sure if i'd go as far as "just like the flu". the flu is exceptionally adapted to being able to re-infect us each year. it's not accidental spill-overs to humans, it's practically designed (cough) for it | 17:59 |
| snake | i was attracted to this girl once, but she was my best friends sister | 17:59 |
| snake | also i was super shy | 17:59 |
| snake | i never asked her out but im pretty sure she wanted me to | 17:59 |
| snake | shes a lesbian now | 18:00 |
| LjL | de-facto, i think with COVID it will be more like constant watchfulness for outbreaks of new strain and then quickly making a new vaccine. i don't think it will have a fixed time window | 18:00 |
| de-facto | LjL, yes mutation rates in flu are higher, but somehow the common cold CoVs are still around with us, thats what i meant | 18:00 |
| snake | its just easier to get sex if you dont need to figure out how to communicate with the opposite sex i suppose | 18:00 |
| snake | LjL, yeah that person on reddit was not getting you | 18:02 |
| de-facto | also i am not sure if those comparisons of over all RNA mutation rates really are comparable: which part of the RNA encodes the immunologic relevant surfaces and proteins (e.g. s-protein epitopes for antibodies etc)? | 18:02 |
| snake | rpifan, im bi, but for some reason not completely interested in having a guy over | 18:02 |
| de-facto | because actually the real comparison would have to be: how likely is a mutation occuring in exactly those relevant sections? | 18:03 |
| snake | maybe im just bicurious | 18:03 |
| rpifan | idk grindr is a good tool | 18:03 |
| LjL | you know straight people have Tinder and a battery of other similar tools right? | 18:03 |
| snake | LjL, i havent been able to get a date on tinder | 18:04 |
| snake | i mostly just get abused by girls on there :< | 18:04 |
| LjL | i haven't been able to get a date on where i was either, and i'm gay, so. | 18:04 |
| snake | im just an average person | 18:05 |
| snake | everyone wants this high-tier person to upgrade their life | 18:05 |
| snake | i'd probably be a downgrade for most people :< | 18:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: EU agency: Coronavirus spread in minks could speed mutations: The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control has issued new guidance to curb the spread of the coronavirus between minks and humans, warning that the transmission of COVID-19 among animals could speed up the number of mutations in the virus before it [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/ar2FVb | 18:06 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +150379 cases (now 10.7 million), +1538 deaths (now 247572) since a day ago — Canada: +5341 cases (now 280001), +88 deaths (now 10745) since a day ago — Germany: +213 deaths (now 12166) since a day ago | 18:06 |
| snake | LjL, i have more skills and resources than my one friend, but he gets girlfriends all the time | 18:09 |
| snake | but compared to other working people, im not as good | 18:09 |
| LjL | i don't think it's helpful to think of yourself as *either* an upgrade or a downgrade and as high-tier or low-tier people and your resources and skills... you're not computer hardware and it's also not a job interview. but what do i know, i don't get dates. | 18:10 |
| IndoAnon | snake: I think it's because they switch partners, mass orgies, and share needles | 18:10 |
| LjL | lolwat | 18:10 |
| snake | IndoAnon, no he is trying to quit smoaking | 18:10 |
| IndoAnon | snake: related to HIV... 'bugcatcher' | 18:10 |
| snake | LjL, i see | 18:11 |
| LjL | IndoAnon, i don't think you can speak for snake's friend | 18:11 |
| IndoAnon | oho | 18:11 |
| snake | LjL, im asking and trying to answer the wrong question maybe... why dont i have a mate, rather than how can i get a mate | 18:12 |
| LjL | in fact i'm becoming slightly uncomfortable with this topic so how about we call it offtopic and move on talking about more fun subjects, such as how we're all gonna die from COVID | 18:12 |
| snake | ok | 18:12 |
| IndoAnon | Well, i misread | 18:12 |
| LjL | IndoAnon, yeah it makes it so much better if you were referring to gay people | 18:12 |
| IndoAnon | Thought it was "easy to catch HIV" | 18:12 |
| snake | im lost | 18:13 |
| snake | LjL, its ok to be gay | 18:13 |
| IndoAnon | I do respect people with long-term commitment. Regardless of sex | 18:14 |
| snake | IndoAnon, you seem to have a worse attitude than me | 18:14 |
| LjL | alright | 18:14 |
| IndoAnon | >One autopsy study found particles of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in the neurons of a specimen of frontal lobe, Spudich and her colleagues report in their review. “Neurons were found to have viral particles packed in dilated vesicles” and, once the virus gets into neuronal tissue “it could begin a cycle of viral budding,” inflicting further damage to neurons.http://archive.is/bgASn | 18:15 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: Crucial Moderna Covid vaccine data is coming in days — here's what to look out for: Investors expect Moderna's vaccine will be highly effective, especially after Pfizer said its vaccine was 90% effective, said Brad Loncar, a biotech investor. → https://is.gd/d59vDr | 18:15 |
| snake | if trump fired fauci, did biden hire him back? | 18:15 |
| snake | not sure if that story was even true to begin with | 18:16 |
| LjL | snake, Fauci wasn't fired afaik...? i'm not sure *why* since clearly Trump is not a big fan, but i don't know how it all works | 18:17 |
| LjL | however aiui Fauci is not in Biden's COVID task force | 18:17 |
| LjL | but that may be because he's planning to have it in a more important position | 18:17 |
| IndoAnon | *will; Yeah, i guess so.. Although, I would question his leadership, whether he knew fauci flip-flop numerous times | 18:18 |
| LjL | flip-flopping is fine if it's based on changing science imo | 18:20 |
| snake | i dont think he flip flopped | 18:20 |
| snake | he said lockdown and mandates are a polticial decision that wasnt up to him | 18:20 |
| snake | he said staying out of crowds and wearing masks will reduce your risk | 18:20 |
| IndoAnon | well | 18:20 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +153199 cases (now 10.7 million), +1546 deaths (now 247580) since a day ago — Germany: +23099 cases (now 738792), +227 deaths (now 12180) since a day ago | 18:20 |
| IndoAnon | Under whose leadership people were taught not buy mask? | 18:21 |
| IndoAnon | *to not | 18:21 |
| LjL | Trump's :P | 18:21 |
| snake | IndoAnon, there was a mask shortage | 18:22 |
| LjL | snake, doesn't justify it IMO | 18:22 |
| LjL | lying about it undermined the public's confidence | 18:22 |
| LjL | at least it undermined mine | 18:22 |
| LjL | and there was hoarding *anyway* | 18:22 |
| snake | yeah guess you're right about that | 18:22 |
| kara[m] | <IndoAnon "Under whose leadership people we"> this is also part of my main beef with fauci | 18:22 |
| IndoAnon | LjL: that's quite broad, i'm implying CDC's leadership and defacto PR | 18:22 |
| LjL | Fauci is not CDC though | 18:23 |
| de-facto | is there any chance of something like a lockdown in USA during the winter to force incidence down with a hammer? | 18:23 |
| snake | fauci also never said NOT to wear a mask | 18:23 |
| LjL | the CDC went with WHO advice (or vice versa) and made a mess out of it | 18:24 |
| snake | he just said it doesnt prevent you from getting covid, there is a shortage, and you can reduce risk without wearing a mask by other means | 18:24 |
| LjL | but Fauci was (is) part of the coronavirus task force which is separate from the CDC | 18:24 |
| kara[m] | yall heard about the ai cough news? | 18:24 |
| LjL | kara[m], it was a while ago, and some here said it would probably not stand up to real-world testing. are the newer news? | 18:24 |
| IndoAnon | kara[m]: yeah... But, i don't think it's sufficient | 18:25 |
| snake | so glad trump is not going to be president next year | 18:25 |
| IndoAnon | Should have gone with recording of lung inspiration instead | 18:25 |
| IndoAnon | snake: both of president candidate are meme tier... people are the loser | 18:26 |
| IndoAnon | If bernie was the DNC's candidate, The debate will be 200% more entertaining | 18:27 |
| snake | IndoAnon, biden is quite a bit more mature | 18:28 |
| snake | even if he is a pepsi | 18:28 |
| snake | bbiab, going home | 18:28 |
| IndoAnon | lol | 18:28 |
| IndoAnon | I don't think biden's 6 weeks hard lockdown will suffice now | 18:29 |
| kara[m] | wow element bridge lags a lot? all of yall messages just got sent at the same time | 18:29 |
| IndoAnon | let me login to matrix ll | 18:29 |
| kara[m] | no newer news on teh ai cough | 18:29 |
| kara[m] | I have great faith in ai research. I think ai cough has a lot of potential | 18:30 |
| IndoAnon[m] | @kara:privacytools.io: nope, different timestamp | 18:31 |
| kara[m] | ai cough may require good recordings to function properly, i have not read the paper, so having buses check for sickness might not work due to bus noises | 18:31 |
| kara[m] | but having the ai cough test set up at a library entrance? sounds good | 18:32 |
| IndoAnon | The thing is, this virus isn't only pulmonary disease | 18:33 |
| LjL | kara[m], the bridge is often pretty shaky yeah | 18:33 |
| kara[m] | indoanon: maybe just my connected lagged, i thought evyone was ignoring me then i heard one notification sound and saw like 15 msgs when i came looked at element again | 18:33 |
| IndoAnon | LOL | 18:33 |
| kara[m] | afaik the ai only had ~83% accuracy for asymptomatic cases, which is better than not using it | 18:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): U.S. airline employment to reach lowest levels in decades after pandemic cuts 90,000 jobs → https://is.gd/CjbWnC | 18:34 |
| LjL | i remember higher figures... but it might be specificity vs sensitivity, i don't remember if one had much higher figures than the other | 18:35 |
| LjL | but i was sort of perplexed by just how high the figures were. it seemed implausible | 18:35 |
| LjL | %papers cough artificial intelligence | 18:35 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, 11 papers: AI4COVID-19: AI Enabled Preliminary Diagnosis for COVID-19 from Cough Samples via an App by Ali Imran et al, published on 2020-04-02 at [u'http://arxiv.org/abs/2004.01275v5', u'http://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.01275v5'] [... want %more?] | 18:35 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Morocco: +6195 cases (now 276821), +64 deaths (now 4570) since 23 hours ago — Germany: +23993 cases (now 739686), +229 deaths (now 12182) since a day ago | 18:35 |
| kara[m] | it had a higher accuracy for symptomatic cases than asymptomatic | 18:35 |
| LjL | the abstract says "over 90% accuracy" | 18:36 |
| kara[m] | %more | 18:36 |
| Brainstorm | kara[m], [...] potentially jumps back to people. → https://paste.ee/p/IiYZF | 18:36 |
| Brainstorm | kara[m], [...] AI4COVID-19: AI Enabled Preliminary Diagnosis for COVID-19 from Cough Samples via an App by Ali Imran et al, published on 2020-04-02 at [u'http://arxiv.org/abs/2004.01275v6', u'http://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.01275v6'] [...] → https://paste.ee/p/bXnAo | 18:36 |
| tinwhiskers | Yeah. If I had a dollar for every Ai project that worked in the lab but failed in the real world Is be very rich indeed. If I had a dollar for every project that held up it's promise I might afford a burger. | 18:36 |
| LjL | the pastebin there lists more paper, i don't know why the same one is listed twice | 18:36 |
| LjL | strange, i can't find matches for "asymptomatic" or "no symptoms" or "without symptoms" in the paper | 18:37 |
| IndoAnon | immunopulmocardioneuronephrohepaendocrin | 18:37 |
| kara[m] | this "AI4COVID-19: AI Enabled Preliminary Diagnosis for COVID-19 from Cough Samples via an App" is old? "[Submitted on 2 Apr 2020 (v1), last revised 27 Sep 2020 (this version, v6)]" there might be a newer one | 18:37 |
| LjL | uhm maybe it's not the one we read about before | 18:38 |
| LjL | this one doesn't seem to be saying it's *forced* cough | 18:38 |
| LjL | which was the key point of the other one (or else you can't diagnose asymptomatics if they aren't coughing in the first place) | 18:38 |
| kara[m] | pretending that in the real world ai cough only had 40% accuracy, it could still help slow covid. as long as false detection rate isn't very high | 18:39 |
| IndoAnon | (cont.)dermaUroVascular | 18:39 |
| IndoAnon | do I miss anything? | 18:39 |
| kara[m] | i expect that the techie asian countries (japan, korea, taiwan, maybe china) will try to implement an ai cough system | 18:40 |
| IndoAnon | Ah, gastro | 18:40 |
| LjL | https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?tp=&arnumber=9208795 was the one i had in mind | 18:40 |
| tinwhiskers | kara[m]: it would still be far more effective to just use a fast test and the cost will only be a few dollars before long. | 18:40 |
| LjL | but "100% asymptomatic detection rate" wth | 18:41 |
| kara[m] | "COVID-19 Artificial IntelligenceDiagnosis using only Cough Recordin" looks more like the one from a few days ago | 18:41 |
| tinwhiskers | Not that it hurts to have it but it's not going to deliver on the hype | 18:41 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, for the use cases that kara[m] mentioned a fast test would probably still not be fast enough... i.e. entering any enclosed space | 18:42 |
| kara[m] | <LjL "but "100% asymptomatic detection"> guess that implies the research will get profit from it haha | 18:42 |
| kara[m] | implies the researchers** | 18:43 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Tips to cope with lockdown as cold weather arrives: (HealthDay)—Isolation may pose mental health challenges for people as they spend more time indoors in the winter during the coronavirus pandemic, an expert warns. → https://is.gd/Xrrv0O | 18:43 |
| kara[m] | for the library situation, i imagine it would be deployed at the front door, and ppl would cough into a thing and have to wait for their results to be processed. the paper says; "The unlimited throughput and real-time diagnostic of our tool " so hopwfully it doesn't take more that 5s to run | 18:45 |
| kara[m] | <tinwhiskers "kara: it would still be far more"> about how long do fast tests take? | 18:48 |
| tinwhiskers | Oh. I see. That may have some merit | 18:48 |
| tinwhiskers | A few minutes | 18:48 |
| tinwhiskers | In practice I very much doubt an AI cough detection will be anywhere near good enough to be useful. | 18:51 |
| tinwhiskers | Of course that's just a guess but don't pin your hopes on it. | 18:52 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Lack of solidarity hampered Europe's coronavirus response, research finds: Competition between European countries for equipment, test kits and medicines needed to tackle COVID-19 may have hampered the region's ability to respond to the pandemic. → https://is.gd/rs80TV | 18:53 |
| tinwhiskers | Much as people hate the idea immunity passports will be a much more useful approach, warts and all. | 18:55 |
| kara[m] | how do fast tests work, like what makes them so fast compared to the older tests? | 18:56 |
| tinwhiskers | They work kinda like a pregnancy test | 18:56 |
| kara[m] | <tinwhiskers "They work kinda like a pregnancy"> prety cool! | 18:58 |
| kara[m] | <tinwhiskers "Much as people hate the idea imm"> with reinfection, wouldn't immunity passports be useless? | 18:59 |
| IndoAnon | >sweetie, piss to the iPhone. The advanced algorithm will detect whether you're pregnant or not | 19:00 |
| IndoAnon | kara[m]: it's useless. Also, please differentiate between re-infection and relapse | 19:02 |
| tinwhiskers | Not useless. Run of the mill reinfection is rare and provided everyone in any facility all have their passports then herd immunity applies. Infection with new sub-strains will occur in waves once we start getting people vaccinated, so passports may require updating. You also have to consider than once we get most people vaccinated the rate of change will reduce and may even become seasonal. | 19:02 |
| tinwhiskers | So you'll probably see passports needing to be updated every 6-12 months with the latest combination vaccine. | 19:03 |
| de-facto | citizen's immunity is best before 2021-10-12. dont rely on this. | 19:03 |
| kara[m] | <IndoAnon ">sweetie, piss to the iPhone. Th"> one day, there will be an app for this if it doesn't already exist lol | 19:03 |
| IndoAnon | it's a parodyzzz | 19:03 |
| IndoAnon | lol, i meant, it's a joke | 19:04 |
| IndoAnon | dormancy is a huge issue | 19:05 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Indiana, US: +6591 cases (now 230965), +51 deaths (now 4813) since a day ago — Greece: +3316 cases (now 66637), +50 deaths (now 959) since a day ago — US: +153160 cases (now 10.7 million), +1550 deaths (now 247642) since a day ago — Mauritius: +15 cases (now 468) since 6 days ago | 19:06 |
| IndoAnon | also, don't forget the genocide of 17 millions minks on denmark | 19:07 |
| kara[m] | do we have any word on the reinfection rate? | 19:08 |
| kara[m] | a quick duckduckgo search didn't pan out | 19:09 |
| IndoAnon | dude, wait | 19:10 |
| IndoAnon | https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/08/covid-19-reinfection-tracker/ | 19:10 |
| IndoAnon | >A retrospective study of confirmed cases in Mexico found 258 suspected cases of reinfection, including 11 people who died. None of the cases were confirmed with genomic sequencing, which is one of our requirements, and thus none of them can be added to the tracker. | 19:11 |
| kara[m] | other coronaviruses seem to have substantial reinfection rates tho | 19:12 |
| IndoAnon | And, there's no reason to not be cautious | 19:13 |
| tinwhiskers | Most people still have immunity after at least six months (so far) and although antibody titers have been found to drop quite a bit in some people after only a few months it's not really clear if that means they will be prone to reinfection or how severe reinfection might be. Some people seem to develop very little immunity at all though. | 19:14 |
| tinwhiskers | But then there's some hints at ADE occurring in some people so reinfection could be very very bad. | 19:15 |
| de-facto | it also may depend on the COVID severity how long lasting the immunity might be | 19:15 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | re cluster5 - why does german TV ZDF news (Heute) *today* yell "alarm" stating stuff that been almost debunked a 2 days ago already | 19:17 |
| kara[m] | ade = Adverse Drug Event? | 19:18 |
| IndoAnon | tinwhiskers: it's less than 3 months for mild - moderate case | 19:18 |
| kara[m] | oh prob "Antibody-dependent enhancement" right? | 19:18 |
| LjL | kara[m], yes | 19:19 |
| LjL | to the latter | 19:19 |
| tinwhiskers | kara[m]: yeah, with other coronaviruses people retain immunity for about a year, right? | 19:19 |
| kara[m] | tinwhiskers: based on my life and not science, i think immunity passports for like 6 months sound plausible | 19:19 |
| de-facto | tinwhiskers, thats what i am curious about: even if the antibodies to those mutant strains (e.g. cluster 5 in Denmark with the Y453F mutation on the s-protein) may bind less effectively but still somewhat successful if that could give raise to ADE, essentially making it worse. afaik we dont know that yet because all we have are some preliminary in vitro (lab) studies but no in vivo (e.g. humans) studies for *reinfections* with the mutant | 19:19 |
| de-facto | strains | 19:19 |
| tinwhiskers | Yeah | 19:20 |
| kara[m] | <tinwhiskers "kara: yeah, with other coronavir"> i have not read enough to know | 19:20 |
| tinwhiskers | Err, other coronaviruses - 6 months to 1 year | 19:20 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Minnesota, US: +7225 cases (now 201795), +39 deaths (now 2849) since a day ago — Spain: +21775 cases (now 1.5 million), +356 deaths (now 40461) since 22 hours ago — US: +157266 cases (now 10.7 million), +1551 deaths (now 247681) since a day ago | 19:21 |
| kara[m] | hey, wait... | 19:21 |
| IndoAnon | daily reminder Pre-SARS-2 humoral immunity to common coronaviruses doesn't confer cross-protection against SARS-CoV-2 http://archive.is/QbUTH | 19:21 |
| kara[m] | if we get like 20 working covid19 vaccines, will they maybe work on like sars2003 mers and like the common cold / flu coronaviruses? | 19:22 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Have you gotten your flu vaccination?: Flu season is getting underway in the U.S. while the COVID-19 pandemic continues to surge in some areas. Both the flu and COVID-19 are respiratory illness that are highly contagious, but they are caused by different viruses. The best way to prevent the flu is to get vaccinated each year. → https://is.gd/WlEP5n | 19:22 |
| tinwhiskers | kara[m]: maybe a little or maybe they'll make those worse. | 19:23 |
| kara[m] | <IndoAnon "daily reminder Pre-SARS-2 humora"> well i guess that answers my question about common cold, probably. Sucks! | 19:23 |
| IndoAnon | http://archive.is/fuGJB >Protective immune responses that build up during a SARS-CoV-2 infection may weaken just two to three months later—particularly if the infection didn’t come with any symptoms, a new study suggests. | 19:23 |
| tinwhiskers | Well there's some hints that, for example, BCG vaccination may have conferred some cross immunity to SARS-Cov2. We don't really know yet. | 19:24 |
| kara[m] | <tinwhiskers "kara: maybe a little or maybe th"> ahh so a 2025 finale: vaccine evyone globally against covid19. Covid25 comes out and the covid19 vacine supercharges covid25. Covid25 then kills off evyone besides the antivaxers who then die from like measles | 19:25 |
| tinwhiskers | It's entirely possible that in some regions people are experiencing less severe covid than others due to exposure to other coronaviruses. | 19:25 |
| tinwhiskers | kara[m]: heh. Yeah. Anything is possible :-) | 19:26 |
| LjL | IndoAnon[m], please just copypaste stuff like that as citations... i really don't like seeing a slew of images on Matrix, avoiding images as much as possible is one of the things i ask of Matrix users here | 19:26 |
| tinwhiskers | Yeah, I'm not clicking on those either | 19:27 |
| LjL | doesn't mean never doing it if it's kinda warranted but there it looks like you could have just pasted the text | 19:27 |
| kara[m] | wait there are other matrix users here?! :O | 19:27 |
| LjL | sure | 19:27 |
| LjL | the *count* is probably higher than IRC users... although IRC users speak more | 19:27 |
| kara[m] | indo basically posted covid denial logic things | 19:28 |
| LjL | yeah i don't think he's a denier though, he's pointing the silliness out | 19:28 |
| kara[m] | <LjL "yeah i don't think he's a denier"> sry, thats what i meant | 19:28 |
| kara[m] | is there a shortcut to knowing who uses matrix vs freenode? | 19:28 |
| IndoAnon[m] | @kara:privacytools.io: sorry what? | 19:29 |
| LjL-Matrix | kara: depends on your client, but if I hover on my IRC nickname in Element (or even if I just look next to it) it says @freenode_LjL:matrix.org and the "freenode" part indicates it's on IRC and specifically freenode | 19:30 |
| kara[m] | indoanon: i meant to say indo is posting covid memes basically | 19:30 |
| kara[m] | LjL: profile picture seem to be the easiest way! indoanon set a profile pic? | 19:31 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: STAT+: Cancer clinical trial enrollment has plummeted. Will patients come back amid Covid-19?: A new survey of cancer patients finds that nearly one in five is hesitant to participate in clinical trials, largely due to concerns about Covid-19. → https://is.gd/VrLJvk | 19:31 |
| IndoAnon | I said "flip-flop" roughly a hundred messages ago | 19:32 |
| dTal | ...cool> | 19:32 |
| LjL-Matrix | I wouldn't call them memes per se. The "face masks vs face masks" thing is honestly something that I *want* to see pointed out because I think it was scummy behavior. But I see Matrix rooms where posting of images like this is freely allowed and I immediately want to be looking something else because it mostly does end up being low-effort meme post. So even though I don't think these are necessarily like that, I just | 19:32 |
| LjL-Matrix | want to encourage using text over images whenever possible | 19:32 |
| kara[m] | IndoAnon: i mean set a profile pic on your matrix acct? | 19:32 |
| LjL-Matrix | kara: yeah I didn't mention profile pics because indeed Matrix user may not always have one | 19:33 |
| kara[m] | if the minks corona becomes a major thing, is it still considered covid19? | 19:33 |
| LjL-Matrix | Yes | 19:33 |
| kara[m] | LjL: alrite, this is like a mostly sciencey chat | 19:34 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | re cluster5, Drosten talk transcript: https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/info/coronaskript242.pdf https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=de&tl=en&u=https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/info/Coronavirus-Update-Die-Podcast-Folgen-als-Skript,podcastcoronavirus102.html | 19:34 |
| LjL-Matrix | thanks DocScrutinizer05 | 19:34 |
| IndoAnon | correction, now it's roughly 190 messages ago | 19:34 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | yw :-) | 19:35 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Illinois, US: +12702 cases (now 536542), +48 deaths (now 10846) since a day ago — US: +180169 cases (now 10.8 million), +1729 deaths (now 247859) since a day ago | 19:35 |
| LjL-Matrix | DocScrutinizer05: uh which link is the transcript though? I'm probably blind but it still shows me more or less what it showed yesterday | 19:35 |
| kara[m] | lowkey was hoping if the minks corona became major, that it'd be called "minkona virus" | 19:35 |
| LjL-Matrix | DocScrutinizer05: Oh nevermind I get it | 19:36 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I'm puzzled myself | 19:36 |
| LjL-Matrix | DocScrutinizer05: I had to click on the latest episode and that gives me the PDF | 19:36 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&pto=aue&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=de&sp=nmt4&tl=en&u=https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/info/coronaskript242.pdf&usg=ALkJrhh2PxULctCz-rdNeiDjWbHt57PWyg | 19:36 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | yeah | 19:37 |
| IndoAnon[m] | done | 19:37 |
| kara[m] | any predictions on whether the minkcovid will actually become major? | 19:38 |
| LjL | kara[m], so far many experts are saying "probably not" | 19:38 |
| LjL | but i think it's not accurate to say we know with any degree of accuracy | 19:38 |
| LjL | but at least, even if the *current* mutations won't become a big deal, the *fact* that the virus propagates and mutates so easily in mink is a concern, and will remain a concern unless they're all culled | 19:39 |
| LjL | the ECDC issued some guidance, Brainstorm posted about it earlier, then as usual i got sidetracked by something and didn't read it... | 19:39 |
| LjL | https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-11-eu-agency-coronavirus-minks-mutations.html this here | 19:40 |
| LjL | "The agency recommended countries adopt protective measures at mink farms, including testing people working at the farms and sequencing the virus if they test positive for COVID-19. It also said animals should be tested and extra measures taken to prevent the spread of the virus from minks to humans." | 19:40 |
| LjL | i wish they recommended culling | 19:40 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: States ramp up for biggest vaccination effort in US history: With a COVID-19 vaccine drawing closer, public health officials across the country are gearing up for the biggest vaccination effort in U.S. history—a monumental undertaking that must distribute hundreds of millions of doses, prioritize who's first in line and [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/gOrPH6 | 19:41 |
| LjL | the assessment is a https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/detection-new-sars-cov-2-variants-mink | 19:41 |
| IndoAnon[m] | Simply put, people shouldn't set aside possibilities because there's no definite proof yet | 19:44 |
| de-facto | LjL, wow thats a very detailed info on mink farms thanks | 19:45 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | >>the *fact* that the virus propagates and mutates so easily in mink is a concern<< well, same applies for cats and dogs iirc | 19:45 |
| LjL | de-facto, but the bottom line is still "we'll have to see if the things SSI said are actually true, in which case it's dangerous, otherwise it isn't, also mink can still develop new variants so it's kinda dangerous anyway" | 19:46 |
| LjL | DocScrutinizer05, dogs are only weakly susceptible. however i am concerned about cats | 19:46 |
| kara[m] | indoanon: nice! nvr took you for an anime person | 19:46 |
| LjL | DocScrutinizer05, but still, it seems to propagate very easily in mink. maybe it's just because there are so many so close together, but, well... that's a fact that has to be considered with everything else | 19:47 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | the mutation aiui seems an adaption to mink so it can spread at all that easily. This is why we seen it a at least 4 times independently already. Same adaption is a DISadvantage for the virus in humans | 19:47 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | just saying | 19:47 |
| de-facto | yes but mink farms essentially mean "bruteforcing for mutations" with a big population of highly susceptible animals | 19:47 |
| kara[m] | hot take: | 19:48 |
| kara[m] | if the minks are factory farmed, | 19:48 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | yes, but actually *humans* are a much larger target group | 19:48 |
| kara[m] | i wish theyd recommend not using mink fur in products anymore | 19:49 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | and there's no indication suggesting the virus would mutate faster in minks than in humans, except for the "necessary" adaptions to mink | 19:49 |
| IndoAnon | kara[m]: lel, I have been watching cartoons and anime before I am able to ride tricycle | 19:50 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for France: +33172 cases (now 1.9 million), +425 deaths (now 42960) since a day ago — Germany: +23640 cases (now 740642) since 23 hours ago | 19:50 |
| de-facto | huh? in humans it may already have found its "stable niche" e.g. with D614G et al, in animal populations its exposed to the pressure of another immune system, hence other mutations will mean an advantage for the pathogen, afaik Y453F mutation occured independently several times in mink farms due to a difference in the aminoacids between humans and minks | 19:50 |
| kara[m] | "mutates so easily in minks" - holup, it mutates more in minks than humans? | 19:50 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Medicago and GSK to begin final Covid-19 vaccine trials: Canada's Medicago and British pharmaceutical giant GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) announced Thursday the launch of phase 2 and 3 clinical trials on a COVID-19 vaccine, one of a series of candidates being developed worldwide. → https://is.gd/RCSYhX | 19:50 |
| de-facto | interestingly it also means a more strong binding to human ACE2, yet its unclear if that is an advantage to the virus beyond evading pre-existing antibodies to the wild type without Y453F mutation | 19:51 |
| kara[m] | afaik cats are largely solitary, so shouldn't it not really spread among them? | 19:52 |
| kara[m] | domestic cats | 19:52 |
| de-facto | it might even be a disadvantage for the virus in humans because it seems at some point in the replication cycle it would have to de-attach from that receptor and if its too sticky that even might be suboptimal | 19:52 |
| IndoAnon | another reminder | 19:53 |
| de-facto | but afaik thats speculation for now | 19:53 |
| kara[m] | <DocScrutinizer05 "and there's no indication sugges"> okay, thats good, at least for ppl | 19:54 |
| IndoAnon | It has devastating effect on "teenager" minks to older minks, who recently has sex organ that's capable of reproduction | 19:54 |
| kara[m] | "Y453F mutation occured independently several times" i'm kinda impressed ngl | 19:55 |
| de-facto | the bruteforcing for mutations is a bit like bitcoin mining: one not so specialized "gpu" is much less likely to find a block than a very specialized "asic" yet both dont have a chance in comparison to the bruteforcing power of a whole farm of highly specialized asics | 19:55 |
| de-facto | yes Y453F also was found in Netherlands afaik | 19:56 |
| de-facto | that was months before Denmark | 19:56 |
| IndoAnon | Haha | 19:57 |
| IndoAnon | And that doesn't terrify those minkerinos farmer | 19:57 |
| kara[m] | my theory on it being in multiple farms was that the americans needed to import some "european fur minks" in or smthg | 19:58 |
| IndoAnon | doesn't murica has its own mink farms? | 19:58 |
| kara[m] | i personally think that minkcovid is not substantial problem for humans. i've heard of like 4 other pandemic potential diseases this year and they haven't picked up | 20:00 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: Kentucky Supreme Court upholds Gov. Beshear's mask mandate, emergency restrictions: The Kentucky Supreme Court upheld Gov. Andy Beshear's emergency coronavirus executive orders on Thursday amid a surge of cases in the state. → https://is.gd/SD1PU3 | 20:00 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | >>would have to de-attach from that receptor and if its too sticky that even might be suboptimal<< is exactly what Drosten said, iirc he even claimed it IS sub-optimal | 20:00 |
| kara[m] | <IndoAnon "doesn't murica has its own mink "> i feel like on a label, "100% european mink fur" will sell better than "100% texas mink fur" even if it's the same mink species | 20:00 |
| de-facto | https://nextstrain.org/groups/neherlab/ncov/S.Y453F | 20:01 |
| de-facto | https://twitter.com/firefoxx66/status/1324095194170642435 | 20:01 |
| LjL | "The currentestimates are that the substitution rate of SARS-CoV-2 is one mutation per two weeks. There was also a relatively high sequence diversity observed in farms, which still tested negative one week priorto the outbreak, implying that the virus evolves more quickly inthe mink population." | 20:01 |
| LjL | from the ECDC assessment | 20:01 |
| LjL | that looks like they think it mutates faster in mink methinks | 20:01 |
| de-facto | yes over all RNA SARS-CoV-2 got 23-24 mutations per year or such | 20:02 |
| de-facto | in human samples such as nextstrain (the source of that claim) | 20:02 |
| IndoAnon | kara[m]: yeah, it's like people never learn... When was the time FR was BTFOd by new world wines? | 20:03 |
| de-facto | so that fits then 365.25 / 7 / 24 = 2.17 weeks per mutation | 20:04 |
| kara[m] | <LjL "that looks like they think it mu"> wow wild, did they say why it would mutate faster in some species? | 20:05 |
| LjL | de-facto, yeah but the other statement is the one i was focusing on, "... the virus evolves more quickly in the mink population". there is probably no nextstrain source for *that*, but i'd say the ECDC itself is a source to be considered | 20:05 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | LjL: it mutates faster in mink to adapt to minks, otherwise it wouldn't spread that easily | 20:06 |
| kara[m] | potentially, it's mutating fast in minks until it gets to a 'stable' strain type thing? | 20:07 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | that doesn't mean that in minks, once it adapted to new environment, there would per se a higher mutation rate, aiui | 20:07 |
| LjL | DocScrutinizer05, sure, but while mutations to adapt to a new host may make the virus less lethal for that host and more easily spread instead, when it jumps (back) to a different host (in this case us), it's not unheard of that the mutations make it become a lot more lethal (though possibly less spreadable due to killing you faster) | 20:07 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | kara[m]: exactly | 20:07 |
| LjL | i'm not saying this is the case for the current observed mutations, but it's a risk in general with spillback from animals | 20:08 |
| de-facto | LjL it may also be related to the species jump itself: most of the mutations occuring are just fails and lead to non-fit strains, e.g. dead ends. if its "optimized" to current host already its harder to find an advantage mutation than if it just jumped to another species where new "optimization potential" may lead to a higher probability to find some advantageous mutations among all of the occurring ones | 20:08 |
| de-facto | yeah essentially adapting or "optimizing" to minks | 20:09 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | LjL: yes, but this particular mutation in cluster5 which is a convergent mutation seen 4 times at least, independently, is considered ÖESS suited for humans | 20:09 |
| kara[m] | while we're culling things, shouldn't we cull camels for mers? | 20:09 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | LESS* | 20:09 |
| LjL | well, the source that ECDC cite for that claim is https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/11/09/science.abe5901 | 20:09 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: Will Thanksgiving Be a COVID-19 Disaster? In Canada, the Answer Was 'Yes' (10274 votes) | https://time.com/5910635/thanksgiving-covid-19/ | https://redd.it/jsuwnw | 20:10 |
| de-facto | but since it always will spill over from humans to minks this may be often the case then: optimization potential in the mink population under the new immunologic pressure leading to faster rate of successful mutations | 20:10 |
| kara[m] | evolution is good at reaching a local maximum, rather than global maximum. Jumping from animal to animal should increase potential to reach global maximum | 20:10 |
| LjL | de-facto, it will always spill over, unless, you know. | 20:12 |
| de-facto | exactly the problem | 20:12 |
| IndoAnon | kara[m]: that's the argument why this virus might indeed came from bioweapon research; Be it virus "escape" nor intentional release... It was 100% adapted to humanACE2 from get go | 20:13 |
| kara[m] | it seems like camels haven't been culled | 20:13 |
| LjL | anyway i've added the ECDC thing to Wikipedia and to covid19.specops.network so i can wander off to do other stuff for a bit, enough covid for now | 20:13 |
| LjL | kara[m], that would be a tad more problematic | 20:13 |
| LjL | kara[m], here's something funny about evolution insisting on local minima https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wzIXF6zy7hg | 20:15 |
| LjL | %title | 20:15 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: From www.youtube.com: The stupidest nerve in the human body - YouTube | 20:15 |
| kara[m] | "Eradication and culling of the palm civet in China contributed substantially to the eradication- of SARS-CoV-1 | 20:15 |
| LjL | kara[m], i don't know about the palm civet, but while culling mink would do everyone a favor (including the mink, really) except for the few rich people who insist on buying fur, camels are heavily relied upon for all kinda of sustenance by multiple populations. | 20:16 |
| LjL | might as well proposing culling all cows everywhere | 20:16 |
| LjL | -ing | 20:16 |
| kara[m] | my dudes, if llamas one day host a sars-cov, we're in trouble considering llamas spit | 20:17 |
| LjL | %fdroid coronastatsde | 20:17 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, CoronaStatsDE None (com.asdoi.coronastats) in https://apt.izzysoft.de/fdroid/repo: displays the current corona data of the respective areas in Germany - updated 2020-11-12, see https://gitlab.com/asdoi/coronastats/-/releases | 20:17 |
| LjL | i just saw this being released into the repository, haven't installed it, just thought some of you may be interested | 20:18 |
| IndoAnon | LjL: psst, don't make the dutch angry... The last time the government want them to reduce their /herd/ population, they make one of the biggest traffic jam in EU/world | 20:19 |
| Brainstorm | New from https://covid19.specops.network : ljl-covid: Add ECDC risk assessment for mink mutants → https://is.gd/uBoZFb | 20:19 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | anyway, I guess todays alarmistic ZDF news re cluster5 been based on danish gvmt trying to justify why they have to cull mink, which indeed would be a sane thing to do even wgen cluster5 is no new huge thread to mankind. We don't want to host huge clusters of the virus | 20:20 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +161147 cases (now 10.8 million), +1508 deaths (now 247870) since a day ago | 20:21 |
| de-facto | wow was it not like 1050 deaths a day or two ago? | 20:22 |
| Skunny | morning | 20:23 |
| Skunny | so is there anything I can do to help others now that I had COVID? | 20:23 |
| kara[m] | did not know camels are still widely used | 20:23 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | Skunny: donate plasma | 20:24 |
| Skunny | I'll look inot it for sure | 20:24 |
| kara[m] | <DocScrutinizer05 "Skunny: donate plasma"> isn't this good advice in general, not just for covid survivors? | 20:24 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | Skunny: spread the word. covid is real | 20:24 |
| kara[m] | Skunny: glad to hear u survived! | 20:24 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | ridiculous but prolly a good suggestion | 20:25 |
| de-facto | LjL, hmm but its not on fdroid | 20:26 |
| de-facto | hey Skunny got your second test already? | 20:26 |
| Skunny | not yet | 20:28 |
| Skunny | I went yesterday | 20:28 |
| Skunny | on day 13 with no fever for 6 days at least | 20:29 |
| Skunny | I'm deep cleaning today | 20:29 |
| dtrum | Herd Immunity in european Countries from yesterday https://paste.c-net.org/JodieRegained | 20:32 |
| kara[m] | medlife crisis, great name lol | 20:33 |
| kara[m] | what the heck happened to czechia? their cases / M is incredible | 20:34 |
| de-facto | hmm friend of mine wrote me that he got 13 "low risk" contacts with the tracing app very recently asking me what to do, i am not sure what to tell since the app cant properly estimate the transmission risk just by bluetooth | 20:35 |
| de-facto | thats quite a lot 13 in short time | 20:35 |
| kara[m] | czechia in beginning of pandemic: *strong dog meme* | 20:35 |
| kara[m] | czechia now: *weak dog meme* | 20:35 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Ohio, US: +7101 cases (now 274457), +36 deaths (now 5692) since a day ago — South Dakota, US: +2020 cases (now 60716) since 20 hours ago — US: +169161 cases (now 10.8 million), +1526 deaths (now 247906) since a day ago — Germany: +24818 cases (now 741820), +222 deaths (now 12199) since a day ago | 20:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): University of Wisconsin hospitals are short staff at 'all times' as Covid slams state → https://is.gd/6ImqIr | 20:38 |
| de-facto | dtrum, are those seroprevalence data? which are the sources for that? | 20:39 |
| LjL | de-facto, it's not in the main F-Droid repo, it's in izzy's repo, a very popular repo where apps are open source but the author's build is used, they're not compiled independently | 20:47 |
| de-facto | yeah i tried that, the server seems to be broken currently | 20:48 |
| de-facto | maybe i look at it another time when its fixed | 20:48 |
| LjL | de-facto, well i don't even use it fwiw, i prefer to stick to independent builds. there are some decent COVID stats apps (just not specific to German) in the main repo anyway | 20:49 |
| de-facto | LjL, any idea what to tell a friend with 13 low risk events in the most recent time? he is scared staying at home (and possibly me too, because its a collegue of mine in the same room, we talked a lot) | 20:49 |
| LjL | de-facto, what do you mean 13 low risk events? positive people he met? | 20:51 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Utah, US: +3919 cases (now 143639), +9 deaths (now 687) since 22 hours ago — US: +171604 cases (now 10.8 million), +1503 deaths (now 247931) since a day ago | 20:52 |
| de-facto | yes | 20:52 |
| LjL | de-facto, that's a lot of people, i probably don't know 13 people in total! | 20:52 |
| LjL | de-facto, low risk because what? brief? | 20:52 |
| LjL | de-facto, i don't know what to tell him, i'm scared and i haven't even had (known) risk events | 20:53 |
| LjL | tell him to come here and we'll bore him with probabilities so much he'll want to think of something other than COVID | 20:53 |
| de-facto | i am not sure what low risk exactly means | 20:53 |
| de-facto | its the tracing app algo, if there is a risk then the possibility of infection i would suspect, why its low? idk maybe distance, maybe second tier contacts? not sure | 20:54 |
| LjL | de-facto, ah, from the app? wow | 20:55 |
| LjL | in italy at least, but i thought elsewhere too, the app is pretty conservative | 20:55 |
| de-facto | yes the german coronawarn app | 20:55 |
| LjL | but in italy it doesn't classify risk, i think | 20:55 |
| de-facto | 13 is a lot in short time imho | 20:55 |
| de-facto | i never had any risk contact ever | 20:55 |
| LjL | it just tells you whether you met someone positive for more than 15 minutes or whatever, it doesn't have classes | 20:55 |
| LjL | de-facto, well what would i tell him... he should definitely self-isolate, but at long as he's not having symptoms he doesn't necessarily need to get tested, does he? if five days from now he still has no symptoms, he can probably relax a little | 20:56 |
| LjL | if he needs to test positive or he won't get paid, then tough luck i guess :\ | 20:56 |
| LjL | but with that amount of contacts, he should self-isolate for sure imo | 20:57 |
| LjL | low risk or not, 13 is... a lot | 20:57 |
| LjL | de-facto, you/he may perhaps also get in contact with the CWA people, maybe through a github issue... i mean i shouldn't suggest that, as github issue trackers aren't really forums or anything, but you know, maybe it could be framed as a potential bug, "implausibly many positive people met, what does 'low risk' actually mean?!" | 20:58 |
| LjL | i know for a fact they are active on github and respond to various things | 20:58 |
| LjL | (because i've followed the issues about integration with microG) | 20:58 |
| de-facto | i just told him he got too many contacts and he was a bit annoyed saying he barely got contacts and goes shopping once a week | 21:00 |
| de-facto | so its really strange | 21:00 |
| de-facto | can those all emerge from the same carrier? | 21:00 |
| LjL | i think so | 21:00 |
| LjL | i was just thinking if the threshold for "low risk" on CWA is really low | 21:01 |
| LjL | he may have spent a couple of minutes near, say, a bunch of people eating at tables outside a restaurant | 21:01 |
| LjL | then all of them turned out to have infected each other | 21:01 |
| LjL | he may still not be infected, because he was just briefly near them | 21:01 |
| LjL | but it's still 13 because it was near *all* of them | 21:01 |
| LjL | but that's conjecture. i still maintain with 13 positive contacts, he should stay home for the recommended period | 21:02 |
| de-facto | so 13 individual carriers or 13 encounters ? | 21:02 |
| de-facto | yeah | 21:02 |
| de-facto | thankfully i wore my FFP3 mask, though its not super tight fit because i have a beard :( | 21:03 |
| de-facto | while talking with him in the same room for hours | 21:03 |
| LjL | de-facto, with the italian app, he'd probably know whether it's a single encounter with many carriers, or many separate encounters | 21:04 |
| LjL | it tells you *when* you had a contact | 21:04 |
| LjL | that information is probably available somewhere in the database | 21:04 |
| LjL | there is an app that can find it if you have root but i *think* it was for the Swiss covid app, not the German one | 21:05 |
| de-facto | the German app does not tell you when because of privacy ... :/ | 21:05 |
| rpifan | ? | 21:05 |
| LjL | de-facto, ha! then laugh at it, and get https://github.com/mh-/corona-warn-companion-android | 21:06 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +172761 cases (now 10.8 million), +1450 deaths (now 247946) since a day ago — Germany: +28521 cases (now 745523), +253 deaths (now 12230) since a day ago — United Kingdom: +563 deaths (now 50928) since 13 hours ago | 21:06 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: Dr. Scott Gottlieb: 'Covid cases in the U.S. should peak in January': Dr. Scott Gottlieb says the next two to three months will be the hardest for Americans in the coronavirus epidemic, but cases should peak in early 2021. → https://is.gd/jEl0AM | 21:07 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | >><de-facto> i am not sure what low risk exactly means<< for all I know "low risk contact" means a short furation and/or high distance contact to the ID that reported a positive test | 21:11 |
| LjL | uhm maybe the case count for germany is getting a little too high now? O.o | 21:11 |
| LjL | i mean in the bot | 21:11 |
| LjL | DocScrutinizer05, but does it mean *any* contact with *no* minimum threshold for distance and duration at all? because if so... even when i'm apparently in the middle of nowhere (relatively speaking, since i'm in milan) i still often get like 5 people in proximity | 21:12 |
| LjL | using this guy | 21:12 |
| LjL | %fdroid uuid | 21:12 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, UUID 0xFD6F Scanner 0.9.1.14 (com.emacberry.uuid0xfd6fscan) in https://f-droid.org/repo: Scan for BluetoothLE Beacons with UUID 0xFD6F - updated 2020-10-28, see https://github.com/marq24/UUID0xFD6FTracer | 21:12 |
| de-facto | DocScrutinizer05, so its like the app means the risk is low because of high signal attenuation? | 21:12 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | it *could* be an artifact if somebody de-installed and re-installed the app, or deleted their eandom ID list | 21:13 |
| LjL | i get *thousands* of short-term contacts with that app if i go out for a couple hours | 21:13 |
| de-facto | or short exposure time | 21:13 |
| LjL | not positive contacts, you know, just general contacts | 21:13 |
| LjL | but among thousands, a few are bound to test positive | 21:13 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | LjL: when you get "contacts" in the middle of nowhere, then there's a bug. | 21:13 |
| LjL | de-facto, yes it's definitely based on a mixture of signal (Google has a calibration thing for smartphone models so it makes *some* sense) and duration, but i don't know if the apps takes into account literally *any* contact, no matter how short and far away. if it does then it's a bit silly | 21:14 |
| LjL | DocScrutinizer05, no, they are just people who are not that close | 21:14 |
| LjL | BLE can have a range of 200m | 21:14 |
| de-facto | what I mean "low risk" may be inaccurate metric and 13 is alarmingly many in a short amount of time | 21:14 |
| LjL | de-facto, yes so what i'm saying is you (or he or someone) should have a look at the app's actual source code and figure out what counts as "low risk" | 21:14 |
| LjL | the lazy way being, file an issue about it | 21:15 |
| Arsanerit | I suppose the app can tell that if it receives its own beacons its not a contact. | 21:15 |
| de-facto | yes | 21:15 |
| LjL | lol yeah | 21:15 |
| LjL | but if he has, or can easily enough have, root he should really install the companion app i linked | 21:16 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.contextis.android.BLEScanner&hl=en | 21:17 |
| de-facto | nope no root on his samsung note | 21:17 |
| LjL | why use the general BLE scanner, when the UUID app shows specifically the exposure notificatoin framework beacons, and even lets you set dB thresholds for what counts as "near", "medium" or "far"? | 21:18 |
| LjL | but anyway that's for the future, it won't look into the past | 21:18 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | https://www.connect.de/ratgeber/corona-warn-app-wie-viele-nutzer-naehe-umgebung-bluetooth-scanner-3200888.html | 21:19 |
| de-facto | hmm maybe also could be a neighbor since BLE goes through walls | 21:20 |
| de-facto | aye what at a mess | 21:20 |
| LjL | a neighbor with 13 people in the apartment? | 21:20 |
| de-facto | well if its 13 individual people | 21:21 |
| de-facto | maybe it registered 13 times proximity thorught the wall? | 21:21 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | the only way to aggregate 13 is you met 13 devices which all had positive tests, or there's been an artifact | 21:21 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +193605 cases (now 10.8 million), +1649 deaths (now 248155) since a day ago — St. Martin: +51 cases (now 655) since 7 days ago — St. Barthelemy: +19 cases (now 109) since 7 days ago — Germany: +29194 cases (now 746196), +259 deaths (now 12236) since a day ago | 21:21 |
| de-facto | so its individual devices? what if i meet a device twice? | 21:21 |
| LjL | de-facto, it will only be counted once, because while its ID changes periodically for privacy, the *seed* that generates it doesn't | 21:22 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | artifact *maybe* triggered by somebody 13 times deleting virtual ID list, or sth | 21:22 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | de-facto: teh app (actually the OS subsystem) works by creating random IDs all linked to one real ID. Multiple encounters *should* get filtered out | 21:24 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | not entirely sure about that though | 21:24 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | it well might be a bug nobody noticed and fixed yet | 21:25 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | actually seems it's a blind spot even in specs | 21:25 |
| de-facto | but if they are filtered out then risk events woudl be discarded | 21:28 |
| LjL | really, file an issue | 21:29 |
| LjL | make an account for the job if you (he) doesn't want to use his regular account | 21:29 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | the "receiving" app is just storing contacts and signalstrength/duration, however the sender app changes own ID randomly every 10 to 15 minutes iirc. No idea actually how the receiving app is supposed to distinguish or merge, though the positive transmitter app sends a list of all used IDs to server where it's still known all those IDs are from ONE device, then receiver app downloads that list... obviously there *might* be ways this | 21:29 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | goes haywire | 21:29 |
| LjL | DocScrutinizer05, when someone is positive it actually sends not the IDs but the seed that generated them. then there is *another* seed that generates that one, and that's kept private | 21:30 |
| LjL | so i'm not sure what happens when encounters belong to multiple "middle" seeds | 21:31 |
| LjL | also these seeds have specific names but i don't remember them from the spec | 21:31 |
| LjL | the existence of these "middle" seeds is actually the reason why calculating exposures is kinda CPU intensive | 21:32 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | yeah, probably even that - another level of abstraction, still it's not defined what counts as one long contact and what counts - and gets displayed - as multiple short contacts? | 21:32 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | file a bug | 21:32 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | https://www.zeit.de/digital/mobil/2020-10/corona-warn-app-infektion-kontakte-warnungen-smartphone#sagt-die-zahl-der-begegnungen-ueberhaupt-etwas-wenn-nicht-jeder-die-app-hat | 21:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Signs of hope in Germany, France but virus strains hospitals: The surge of new coronavirus cases appears to be slowing in Germany and France, generating hopes that the two European heavyweights are beginning to regain control over the pandemic. But authorities said Thursday that hospitals are crowded and are likely to face [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/Cakkgg | 21:36 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +190501 cases (now 10.8 million), +1428 deaths (now 248160) since a day ago — Germany: +26163 cases (now 747885), +234 deaths (now 12258) since a day ago | 21:36 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | de-facto: anyway https://praxistipps.chip.de/corona-warn-app-risiko-begegnung-mit-niedrigem-risiko-was-es-bedeutet_124056 | 21:45 |
| Brainstorm | New from NPR: Federal Trade Commission Cracks Down On Unproven COVID-19 Treatment: The Federal Trade Commission issued warning letters to several companies that marketed an unproven drug to treat COVID-19. Sales of the non-approved drug, thymosin alpha-1, were first reported by NPR. → https://is.gd/eJ3wvS | 21:46 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for New Hampshire, US: +322 cases (now 13470), +3 deaths (now 495) since 20 hours ago — US: +191121 cases (now 10.8 million), +1431 deaths (now 248163) since a day ago | 21:51 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: [CROSSPOST] Hi, I am Wim van der Poel, prof. of zoonotic viruses in the Netherlands; the first country with coronavirus outbreaks on mink farms. AMA about COVID-19 in mink and other animals! (80 votes) | /r/Coronavirus/comments/jsv6iv/hi_i_am_wim_van_der_poel_prof_of_zoonotic_viruses/ | https://redd.it/jsvb0v | 21:53 |
| de-facto | DocScrutinizer05, sorry was just in a call with him, what i meant is that there should be no reason to *not* count contacts to the same carrier multiple times: the chances for transmission should be counter regardless of the origin of the pathogen, e.g. when i meet someone with positive result twice i got twice the chance for infection, same if i meet two individual carriers | 22:01 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | https://i.imgur.com/UUNs9iC.png | 22:01 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | de-facto: yes, that's a valid point | 22:02 |
| de-facto | btw he got Monday: 3, Tuesday: 2, Wednesday 13, Thursday 12 | 22:02 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I'd be surprised if there were no better apps by now, to log id, location, duration, S/N | 22:04 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | anyway fd6f is "the key" | 22:04 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | all that doesn't help for retrospective, but for the future | 22:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from PLOS ONE: Analysis of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Italy: The role of local and interventional factors in the control of the epidemic: by Daniele Lilleri, Federica Zavaglio, Elisa Gabanti, Giuseppe Gerna, Eloisa Arbustini Containment measures have been applied in several countries in order to limit the diffusion of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic. The [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/GVPWRn | 22:05 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +177951 cases (now 10.8 million), +1346 deaths (now 248191) since a day ago — Germany: +24918 cases (now 749516), +208 deaths (now 12275) since a day ago | 22:06 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | btw iirc the threshold parameters for low->high risk are dynamically set by data from server iirc | 22:06 |
| de-facto | DocScrutinizer05, LjL https://imgur.com/a/DEjUfNv https://i.imgur.com/3yPGlLR.png | 22:07 |
| de-facto | yes the params can be adjusted by RKI afaik | 22:07 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | yeah I had that with ONE, a single time so far | 22:07 |
| de-facto | i never had any non zero counters ever with the app and always active | 22:08 |
| de-facto | yet i spend hours in the same room with him talking | 22:08 |
| de-facto | wearing a not so tight fit FFP3 | 22:08 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | BT S-level is a very poor means to determine distance. I have no clue why they ignored my suggestion to augment it by ultrasonic RTT echo-ping | 22:09 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | >>blabla DOGS!!1!! blabla<< | 22:09 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | pffff | 22:10 |
| de-facto | its also severely attenuated by cloth and position as well as having many reflections | 22:10 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | which FFP brand you got? consider it good? | 22:10 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | >>v<< ultrasound? doesn't matter since it's about round trip time, not amplitude. reflexiuns are late echos and get eliminated easily. And if it fails completely you're still no worse off than without | 22:12 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | <<severely attenuated<< ^^^ | 22:12 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +180840 cases (now 10.8 million), +1370 deaths (now 248215) since a day ago | 22:21 |
| de-facto | wow 180k? | 22:21 |
| Brainstorm | New from PLOS ONE: Clinical characteristics of 199 discharged patients with COVID-19 in Fujian Province: A multicenter retrospective study between January 22nd and February 27th, 2020: by Sijiao Wang, Zhisheng Chen, Yijian Lin, Li Lin, Qunying Lin, Sufang Fang, Yonghong Shi, Xibin Zhuang, Yuming Ye, Ting Wang, Hongying Zhang, Changzhou Shao Background [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/ni3TUH | 22:25 |
| LjL | i'm not so sure de-facto, i'm going to add some debug lines | 22:25 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | 180k seems plausible | 22:26 |
| LjL | it's going up a bit fast compared to earlier today, and so is Germany | 22:28 |
| de-facto | %stats | 22:28 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | hmm http://reisenweber.net/et_al/covid/covid19_statistics.htm | 22:29 |
| LjL | de-facto, i was restarting it when you typed that | 22:30 |
| de-facto | oh ok | 22:30 |
| de-facto | lol | 22:30 |
| de-facto | %stats | 22:30 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: In World, there have been 53.2 million confirmed cases (0.7% of the population) and 1.3 million deaths (2.4% of cases) as of 13 minutes ago. 894.1 million tests were performed (5.9% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.3% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 3.4% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=World for time series data. | 22:31 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Oregon, US: +1109 cases (now 53879), +4 deaths (now 746) since a day ago — US: +177822 cases (now 10.8 million), +1256 deaths (now 248230) since a day ago — Niger: +19 cases (now 1282) since 23 hours ago | 22:36 |
| de-facto | DocScrutinizer05, what is your equation for the blue curve? | 22:38 |
| LjL | Nov 12 22:35:53 : In US, max = 2020-11-12 22:34:00, min = 2020-11-11 21:44:00, diff = 177822 | 22:38 |
| LjL | Nov 12 22:35:53 : In US, max = 2020-11-12 22:34:00, min = 2020-11-11 21:44:00, diff = 1256 | 22:38 |
| LjL | it's looking at slightly more than one day but that's as intended | 22:39 |
| de-facto | so its really around 180k for ~24-25h | 22:43 |
| LjL | yeah, but bleh i'm confused by my own code though | 22:43 |
| LjL | it doesn't actualy make sense | 22:43 |
| Arsanerit | I'm not sure where to find the positive testing rate for Germany | 22:45 |
| LjL | RKI has the number of tests, so just divide cases by that, i guess | 22:50 |
| LjL | hopefully days match | 22:50 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +6524 cases (now 10.8 million), +26 deaths (now 248256) since 17 minutes ago | 22:51 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +6524 cases (now 10.8 million), +26 deaths (now 248256) since 18 minutes ago | 22:52 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +6524 cases (now 10.8 million), +26 deaths (now 248256) since 19 minutes ago | 22:54 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +6524 cases (now 10.8 million), +26 deaths (now 248256) since 22 minutes ago | 22:56 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | de-facto: https://i.imgur.com/F3uzi3j.png https://i.imgur.com/FLtaiim.png =IF(B254=" ";" ";AVERAGEIF(B248:B254;">0")) | 22:56 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | in plain text: average of last 7 days | 22:56 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +6524 cases (now 10.8 million), +26 deaths (now 248256) since 23 minutes ago | 22:57 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | http://reisenweber.net/et_al/covid/covid19_statistics.ods | 22:57 |
| Arsanerit | that's a lot of updates | 22:58 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +6524 cases (now 10.8 million), +26 deaths (now 248256) since 25 minutes ago | 22:59 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +6524 cases (now 10.8 million), +26 deaths (now 248256) since 27 minutes ago | 23:01 |
| de-facto | DocScrutinizer05, thanks so its one seventh of the sum of previous seven days | 23:01 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +6524 cases (now 10.8 million), +26 deaths (now 248256) since 28 minutes ago | 23:02 |
| de-facto | if that is the LO function, it does not have a definition it seems | 23:03 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +6524 cases (now 10.8 million), +26 deaths (now 248256) since 30 minutes ago | 23:04 |
| de-facto | ah yes there in the web, its arithmetic mean indeed so yeah | 23:05 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +7014 cases (now 10.8 million), +26 deaths (now 248256) since 32 minutes ago | 23:06 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +7014 cases (now 10.8 million), +26 deaths (now 248256) since 34 minutes ago | 23:08 |
| de-facto | how come in the wide time range graph there is no latest peak that is shown in the zoomed graph below? | 23:08 |
| LjL | ouch | 23:09 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +7014 cases (now 10.8 million), +26 deaths (now 248256) since 35 minutes ago | 23:09 |
| LjL | sorree | 23:09 |
| de-facto | %title https://imgur.com/a/iY9TpR6 https://i.imgur.com/ZR6s8VT.png source: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Testzahl.html | 23:12 |
| de-facto | Arsanerit, ^^ made a graph a few days ago | 23:13 |
| de-facto | in detail on https://ars.rki.de/Content/COVID19/Main.aspx | 23:13 |
| de-facto | also described in https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Nov_2020/2020-11-04-de.pdf?__blob=publicationFile | 23:16 |
| de-facto | %title https://imgur.com/a/nwqBEBJ https://i.imgur.com/yw2RktP.png source: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Nov_2020/2020-11-04-de.pdf?__blob=publicationFile page 12 | 23:18 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From imgur.com: COVID-19 Germany Tests quote of positive results - Album on Imgur | 23:18 |
| de-facto | Arsanerit, in short: its currently around 7-8% or such | 23:18 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | de-facto: >>one seventh of the sum of previous seven days<< exactly | 23:19 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | well, s/previous/last/ | 23:20 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | incl "today" | 23:20 |
| de-facto | yeah it looks pretty good, was curious about it, i used a symmetric arithmetic mean with dynamic shrinking window on the edges | 23:21 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +8123 cases (now 10.8 million), +27 deaths (now 248257) since 47 minutes ago | 23:21 |
| de-facto | thats good for symmetric peaks but not so good at the edges | 23:21 |
| de-facto | maybe i should not shrink the window but shift it from symmetric to asymmetric on the edges instead | 23:22 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +8123 cases (now 10.8 million), +27 deaths (now 248257) since 49 minutes ago | 23:23 |
| LjL | sigh | 23:23 |
| LjL | i shouldn't have touched it | 23:23 |
| LjL | or i should have kept it versioned, right Spec? | 23:23 |
| de-facto | how about let it pull latest from a git on restart? | 23:24 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +8123 cases (now 10.8 million), +27 deaths (now 248257) since 50 minutes ago | 23:24 |
| de-facto | and changes checking in a local git repo or such? | 23:25 |
| LjL | yes there are a lot of how abouts about me | 23:25 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +8123 cases (now 10.8 million), +27 deaths (now 248257) since 52 minutes ago | 23:26 |
| de-facto | btw my versioning is copy a file and put a date at its end LOL | 23:26 |
| LjL | at least you do *that* | 23:27 |
| LjL | now my mind is confused and i just wish i could do "just restore everything to before i started messing with it earlier" | 23:27 |
| de-facto | yeah and then end up with a directory full of junk, so i have to clean it at some point and then the chaos begins | 23:28 |
| rpifan | an active directory? | 23:28 |
| de-facto | a folder | 23:28 |
| Arsanerit | de-facto: ok thanks, that's pretty bad ): | 23:30 |
| de-facto | testing cap is overwhelmed yeah | 23:30 |
| de-facto | quite embarrassing given the long time we could have prepared for that | 23:30 |
| de-facto | e.g. secure supply chains etc | 23:31 |
| de-facto | Arsanerit, problem with that is now when testing cap saturates or even overwhelms: how far are the daily new infections decoupling from what we are able to see with positive test results? | 23:32 |
| de-facto | same for tracing: targeting test capacity by tracing concentrates it on the more likely cases (e.g. contact persons of cases or clusters), but when tracing is unable to follow the onslaught of new cases that does not work anymore | 23:34 |
| de-facto | hence decoupling targeting from daily new infections happening | 23:34 |
| de-facto | so to use the available testing capacity to the most extend RKI adjusted the testing strategy https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Teststrategie/Testkriterien_Herbst_Winter.html | 23:39 |
| de-facto | i am not sure how that will reflect in the reported numbers, i guess we will see | 23:39 |
| de-facto | https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Massnahmen_Verdachtsfall_Infografik_Tab.htm | 23:40 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Watch live: Dr. Fauci and other top health experts discuss coronavirus surge and vaccines → https://is.gd/HvQ3vK | 23:48 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: Costco drops medical exemption, will require all customers wear face coverings (10458 votes) | https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/nation-world/nation/article/Costco-drops-medical-exemption-will-require-all-15722590.php | https://redd.it/jt0492 | 23:53 |
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