Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: WHO study says remdesivir did not reduce mortality in COVID-19 patients - FT → https://is.gd/PKpoOo | 00:06 |
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zini[m] | <de-facto "the probability for a SARS-CoV-2"> youre sure of this? | 00:10 |
de-facto | i just took the IFR from their paper LOG10[IFR] = -3.24(0.07) + 0.0524(0.0013) * age | 00:12 |
de-facto | so yeah thats the same as IFR(age) = Exp[Log[2] age / 5.75] / 1862 in percent with the doubling age being 5.75 years, so IFR[x + 5.75] / IFR[x] = 2 should be true for all ages x, yet data for younger may be less statistically secured so i would go with x>60 or such | 00:15 |
de-facto | zini[m], why are you asking? | 00:15 |
Brainstorm | New from StatNews: The Readout LOUD: Listen: A big week for pausing studies, pharma’s statehouse spending, & how HBCUs are approaching Covid-19 trials → https://is.gd/uXxrqx | 00:17 |
zini[m] | <de-facto "zini, why are you asking?"> sounds like an easier way to remember approximate death rates | 00:17 |
zini[m] | but it must cut off at a certain age? Like if somebody is 105, I imagine their risk isn't that much higher than someone who is 85. | 00:18 |
de-facto | yeah indeed yet keep in mind that infections are not so easy to know, there are always undetected infections not appearing as cases | 00:18 |
de-facto | so InfectionFatalityRatio = Fatalities / Infecitons < CaseFatalityRatio = Fatalities / Cases because Infections > Cases | 00:20 |
Brainstorm | Updates for US: +2779 cases (now 8.2 million), +31 deaths (now 222682) since 31 minutes ago | 00:20 |
de-facto | yeah there probably is a cut off, but again for such old people the data points are so rare that it probably is not secured there | 00:20 |
de-facto | I did a fit of the data from https://github.com/mbevand/covid19-age-stratified-ifr#comparing-covid-19-to-seasonal-influenza and got this https://imgur.com/a/KNpH0qZ | 00:24 |
de-facto | so data points for oldest were maybe around ~95 or such? yet those dataset were not nearly thoroughly selected as that paper did, resulting exponential had quite a similar curve though | 00:25 |
de-facto | i would go with 60 < age < 90 or such | 00:27 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): British government announces tougher coronavirus restrictions for London; indoor gatherings banned → https://is.gd/OL0cBR | 00:27 |
de-facto | if you want something easy to remember you can go with IFR[age] = Exp[Log[2] age / 6] / 1200 in percent, that is the same as above within a 0.7% for 60 < age < 90 | 00:36 |
dTal | ...can I have something easy to forget instead | 00:38 |
zini[m] | <de-facto "if you want something easy to re"> ah, I see, you're not talking about deaths per diagnosed case. | 00:38 |
de-facto | nope IFR would be death probability per infection, afaik detected by seroprevalence | 00:39 |
de-facto | timing is quite tricky due to the delay of fatalities and fading of seroprevalence | 00:41 |
zini[m] | <de-facto "timing is quite tricky due to th"> that's a really good point. | 00:41 |
zini[m] | post corona we still won't be able to figure out how many people actually got sick | 00:42 |
zini[m] | CaseFatalityRatio = deaths / diagnosed cases? | 00:43 |
de-facto | yeah | 00:43 |
zini[m] | you've heard about the reinfections? | 00:48 |
Brainstorm | Updates for US: +476 cases (now 8.2 million) since 31 minutes ago — Canada: +192 cases (now 192233), +1 deaths (now 9717) since an hour ago | 00:50 |
de-facto | yes any updates? | 00:51 |
zini[m] | de-facto: i'm thinking, afaik | 00:51 |
de-facto | from their list of reinfections at https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/08/covid-19-reinfection-tracker/: 23 reinfection cases, 1 death 22 re-recoveries, cases symptoms: 10 increased, 5 equal, 3 decreased, 5 unknown | 00:52 |
zini[m] | 4/7 corona viruses that i've looked into are confirmed to be able to reinfect humans (the ~4 common cold/influenza ones) | 00:52 |
zini[m] | and ppl can get more or less sick from covid19 the 2nd time | 00:53 |
zini[m] | the true death rate, barring vaccine/antivirals would be higher due to reinfections | 00:53 |
zini[m] | i have no evidence for this: i think the reinfection rate is higher, but that is based on anecdotes | 00:54 |
zini[m] | good link | 00:54 |
de-facto | yeah its anecdotal case reports, probably biased (i guess its hard to detect asymptomatic reinfections), so not representative but a start of a collection of individual stories | 00:56 |
de-facto | %title https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-10-coronavirus-reinfections-real-pandemic.html <-- nice there is a new article | 01:03 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From medicalxpress.com: Coronavirus reinfections are real. Here's what that means for controlling the pandemic | 01:03 |
de-facto | %title https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30783-0/fulltext <-- also a good | 01:03 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.thelancet.com: What reinfections mean for COVID-19 - The Lancet Infectious Diseases | 01:03 |
zini[m] | de-facto: I read the article, what do they mean theres no immune response in the reinfection? One person died from reinfection | 01:16 |
de-facto | there is immune reaction on reinfection | 01:18 |
de-facto | if a reinfection occurs the first infection must have been thought off more or less successfully, hence on second infection immune reaction also occurs, but potentially with slightly different result | 01:19 |
zini[m] | "Iwasaki believes the answer is no because, at least so far, reinfected people have had an immune response to the second infection, suggesting the virus has not developed a way around immune defenses." | 01:20 |
zini[m] | is from https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-10-coronavirus-reinfections-real-pandemic.html | 01:20 |
zini[m] | oops | 01:21 |
zini[m] | dyslexia | 01:21 |
de-facto | also there might be other factors involved, one (speculative) extreme example: someone assumes complete immunity from first diagnosed infection and behaves not careful anymore, risking a second infection with quite a high initial dose | 01:24 |
de-facto | or the other way around: being extra careful | 01:25 |
de-facto | ot other circumstances changing, its not representative or even comparable i would guess | 01:25 |
de-facto | other than it is documented that it can occur and also can be more severe the second time | 01:25 |
de-facto | but that does not tell anything about the majority of cases or such | 01:26 |
zini[m] | tru | 01:29 |
zini[m] | ttyl | 01:29 |
LjL | zini[m], that statement involving Iwasaki sounds weird to me | 01:33 |
LjL | Iwasaki believes the answer is no because, at least so far, reinfected people have had an immune response to the second infection, suggesting the virus has not developed a way around immune defenses. | 01:34 |
LjL | "There is currently no evidence that a variant has emerged as a result of immune evasion," she wrote. "For now, one vaccine will be sufficient to confer protection against all circulating variants." | 01:34 |
LjL | what does it really mean? people would have an immune response whether or not it's a new variant | 01:34 |
LjL | nobody is suggesting it has found a way to "evade immune response", it sounds like an answer without a question | 01:34 |
LjL | better read the study | 01:35 |
LjL | "The patient had positive antibodies after the reinfection, but whether he had pre-existing antibody after the first infection is unknown" ← and we should be ashamed that this is the case | 01:36 |
de-facto | i think that answer was meant for the question one paragraph above about if each variant needs its own vaccine | 01:37 |
LjL | de-facto, based on reading the actual study, yep | 01:42 |
LjL | which Brainstorm is about to say has been added | 01:42 |
LjL | or the Matrix bot, whichever come first. race, bots, race! | 01:42 |
de-facto | if there was a study following recoveries tracking their antibodies and symptoms as well as testing for reinfections we would know more about their frequency, yet if their probability trajectories with time are unknown how to know which cohort size would be needed to observe reinfections in a region of given prevalence | 01:42 |
LjL | de-facto, even without a dedicated study, just friggin' antibody tests everybody when you test them negative and count them as a recovery | 01:43 |
LjL | these tests are cheap | 01:43 |
Brainstorm | New from https://covid19.specops.network : ljl-covid: Add paper on re-infections → https://is.gd/P8nUle | 01:43 |
LjL | you spend god knows how much in treating them, but not €2 to test them and see what might occur in the future? | 01:43 |
LjL | eep | 01:44 |
LjL | %ev congratulate | 01:44 |
Brainstorm | LjL: The verb congratulate is between 0% and 25% positive, between 0% and 50% negative | 01:44 |
de-facto | whoops Brainstorm behave | 01:44 |
de-facto | lol | 01:44 |
LjL | the sentiment analysis database is crowdsourced ;( | 01:44 |
LjL | and it shows | 01:44 |
LjL | stupid crowds | 01:44 |
de-facto | LMAO | 01:44 |
LjL | my tinnitus is loud and my usual webpage resort for when my tinnitus is loud is not working :( | 01:45 |
LjL | although it's probably my browser | 01:45 |
ryouma | speaker-test(1) | 01:46 |
LjL | lol, what's that from | 01:46 |
LjL | i actually use this thing https://www.generalfuzz.net/acrn/ extremely annoying sound warning! | 01:46 |
ryouma | alsa-utils | 01:47 |
LjL | oh | 01:47 |
LjL | white noise, noice | 01:47 |
LjL | but i already have white noise | 01:47 |
LjL | a whole dedicated machine for it! | 01:47 |
LjL | correction, pink noise | 01:48 |
ryouma | that is more bass? | 01:50 |
LjL | i think so | 01:50 |
LjL | it's "perceptually uniform" | 01:50 |
LjL | while white noise is physically uniform | 01:50 |
LjL | pink noise is more pleasant to most people (including me), but my tinnitus is very high-pitched, above 13kHz or so, so white noise masks it better | 01:51 |
LjL | and sometimes white noise isn't good enough so i use that URL, which makes annoying sinewave tones around my 13kHz or whatever you select | 01:51 |
LjL | at least most people who've heard it found it very annoying, but it still beats the tinnitus for me | 01:52 |
LjL | argh | 01:55 |
LjL | now i'll need the pink noise because my white noise machine just ran out of battery, i forgot to charge it | 01:55 |
ryouma | i have lots of white noise from fans, ac, air purifiers when there is somebody to replace filters (which not) all the time plus earplugs 24/7 and i hope that does not cause the disease. perhaps all fans should come with turnable off inverse wave sound reduction | 01:56 |
ryouma | idk why air purifier mfrs do not jump on that | 01:56 |
ryouma | but white noise plus earplugs reduces stimulation overload while at the same time being too much white noise | 01:57 |
ryouma | does music work for you or is that too low frequency | 01:57 |
de-facto | does it correlate with drinking or blood thinning? | 02:03 |
de-facto | drinking water i mean ofc | 02:03 |
ryouma | it's not like you haven't already thought of this or been beaten to death on tinnitus forums but just in case if you need annoying tones right now perhaps you could create annoying sinewave tones just by running speaker-test or similar | 02:03 |
ryouma | if speakers can do it perhaps music with strong harmonic overtones for the tonic at the same frequency. if i am using the right terminology. or does that make it worse. | 02:04 |
ryouma | it says doxycycilne and carbamazepine can cause tinnitus. not good. | 02:09 |
de-facto | btw some say covid may be related to loss of hearing or possibly also tinnitus? | 02:13 |
de-facto | thats why i was thinking about blood circulation and oxygen transport in the inner ear | 02:13 |
de-facto | although there may be many other causes too probably | 02:14 |
LjL | de-facto, not that i can tell, it may correlate a bit with weather and mood | 02:17 |
LjL | de-facto, at some point i ran a correlation with random weather stuff using Python and there was a p<0.05 on air pressure changes. but then i fiddled some more and the correlation kind of came and went without much discernible cause depending on which periods i picked. so i probably just don't understand how to run correlations and any real statistics. | 02:18 |
ryouma | if you tested more than one variable then that could be the reason | 02:19 |
ryouma | jellybean xkcd | 02:19 |
LjL | ryouma, a lot of antibiotics can cause tinnitus, and then if you read tinnitus forums, virtually *anything* is "ototoxic". i don't know how much to believe it. i guess just about any medication caused tinnitus for someone at some point, but as with everything it's a matter of probabilities. but a certain class of antibiotics are definitely a common cause | 02:19 |
LjL | ryouma, yeah, i guess | 02:20 |
ryouma | which class) | 02:20 |
LjL | <de-facto> btw some say covid may be related to loss of hearing or possibly also tinnitus? ← there's a paper about that, but it's not been many (verified) cases so far | 02:20 |
LjL | ryouma, i don't remember the name but let me see if google tells me | 02:20 |
de-facto | interesting | 02:21 |
LjL | ryouma, aminoglycosides | 02:21 |
LjL | de-facto, i'm writing code now to use that preVIEW service to have the bot post every preprint that gets published | 02:21 |
LjL | that should cover it :) | 02:21 |
LjL | well, i mean any *new* preprint, but knowing my coding abilities, it might just print them all :P | 02:22 |
ryouma | something said that hearing loss causes brain to increase amplification which causes tinnitus | 02:22 |
de-facto | oh nice hehe sounds like quite some work though | 02:22 |
LjL | de-facto, https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14992027.2020.1798519 | 02:22 |
LjL | de-facto, hopefully not, i just search with "date:yesterday" (date:today seems to always come up empty) and then avoid reposting ones that have already been posted (which i just store in a list) | 02:23 |
LjL | ryouma, it's one theory | 02:23 |
LjL | ryouma, this ACRN stuff i use in theory was proposed as a *treatment* for tinnitus, but it does nothing for me... partly it might be because my tinnitus is too high, practically at the upper frequency threshold of my hearing, and ACRN works by playing frequencies *around* your tinnitus frequency... and partly because, honestly, i haven't found anyone who said it actually worked. but it's still better than a simple sinewave to mask the tinnitus | 02:25 |
ryouma | i assumed you would emulate the website | 02:25 |
LjL | ryouma, as to music, i don't know how well it works for me... i think when i have a tinnitus spike, i really don't *feel* like listening to music. i crave silence, but i can't get it :\ | 02:25 |
LjL | ryouma, i could never be bothered. i'm lazy. the website is open source on github though, so if it ever goes away, i can run it locally | 02:26 |
ryouma | ok | 02:26 |
ryouma | that was the only reason i suggested | 02:26 |
LjL | ACRN was originally done by expensive physical devices, but someone just made a software version | 02:26 |
ryouma | this is possibly a dumb idea. but could you make a device that puts the inverse wave into your ear? | 02:27 |
LjL | no | 02:27 |
LjL | for me i don't think that could possibly work because i'm not even sure i *hear* that frequency | 02:27 |
LjL | but even if it were possible, no one has managed to make that work | 02:27 |
LjL | it's not like physical sound where you can have a physical inverse of it | 02:27 |
de-facto | interesting | 02:28 |
de-facto | also i wonder about if those "ringing ears" occurring for some vaccines may potentially related | 02:28 |
LjL | it's interesting that even when two soundwaves don't *physically* cancel each other out, your *brain* still cancels them out if you hear them in stereo using headphones | 02:28 |
LjL | %wik binaural beats | 02:29 |
de-facto | do inner ears or related systems have ACE2 exposed or such? | 02:29 |
Brainstorm | LjL, from English Wikipedia: In acoustics, a beat is an interference pattern between two sounds of slightly different frequencies, perceived as a periodic variation in volume whose rate is the difference of the two frequencies. [... want %more?] → https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beat_(acoustics) | 02:29 |
LjL | these guys are a bit new age stuff and i doubt they work for what they purport to, but they sure show that the brain does that thing | 02:29 |
de-facto | eek i tried those binarual beats, it caused me a tinnitus for half an hour, be carefull with that | 02:29 |
LjL | de-facto, i don't know, but they found SARS-COV-2 in the middle ear and the mastoid bone in 3 autopsies | 02:29 |
LjL | de-facto, low volume! | 02:29 |
de-facto | no it detuned my brain LOL | 02:30 |
LjL | first rule when you play with sound for any reason whatsoever: low volume :P | 02:30 |
LjL | hmm | 02:30 |
de-facto | i am not gonna try that again | 02:30 |
LjL | fair enough | 02:30 |
LjL | i've tried them a few times, they never did anything too weird to me | 02:30 |
LjL | unless they gave me tinnitus :P but i don't remember trying them before getting it! | 02:30 |
LjL | i don't know why i have tinnitus, but i've also realized that the quest to find out *why* i have it is just a flawed proxy to "how to make it go away" | 02:31 |
de-facto | it was a very weird feeling to have those slightly different frequency drifting against each others (at low volume) and then i stopped it and still heard it for some time, got scared and went for fresh air, thankfully it went away after some time | 02:31 |
de-facto | but its too scary for me | 02:31 |
LjL | even if i learned that the X medication caused it, it's not going away now, so it doesn't even make sense to care what caused it | 02:31 |
LjL | de-facto, well that sounds a bit like you might be predisposed to tinnitus, brain-wise | 02:31 |
LjL | don't go to concerts :P | 02:32 |
de-facto | yeah i am | 02:32 |
DocScrutinizer05 | tinitus are nerves firing without an acoustic trigger. So no "counter noise" will help to eliminate the nerve signal | 02:32 |
LjL | most younger people who get tinnitus are just getting from loud noises they could easily avoid :\ | 02:32 |
ryouma | i get tinnitus all the time but only for a minute or so. i have always assumed that is normal. | 02:32 |
LjL | DocScrutinizer05, it's true that a counter noise won't help, but it's also true that binaural beats do cause this sensation of "sound going away" even though the two beating sounds never physically meet each other - they only meet each other as neurons firing in your brain | 02:33 |
de-facto | i had tinnitus for a while then began to eat foods that may have some blood thinning effect, around the same time when i stopped with smoking and it almost went away completely | 02:33 |
LjL | ryouma, it is pretty normal, but people with "actual tinnitus" usually have that happen to them more frequently | 02:33 |
ryouma | i am still upset about being taken to a concert that made a point of being loud. it just seems wrong. | 02:33 |
ryouma | s/just/ | 02:33 |
LjL | it can happen several times a day for me, while i think the average for regular people without tinnitus is about once a month. but i know someone who has no tinnitus and has fine hearing (as far as he knows) who has them much more frequently | 02:33 |
DocScrutinizer05 | LjL: that's neurophysiologcal effect, a lot of similar approaches may or may not work for tinitus | 02:34 |
LjL | he kind of worries that it could be an issue, but i think worrying about it is more likely to be an issue. having them doesn't mean he'll get tinnitus. | 02:34 |
LjL | ryouma, it should be illegal | 02:34 |
LjL | ryouma, it's illegal in the EU to sell audio devices that exceed certain thresholds. which means that when i'm in the metro, i have mp3 players that give me NO AUDIBLE SOUND unless i change the locale to "US" | 02:35 |
LjL | so, that's already ridiculous, because clearly it means the metro is making noise that's too loud according to the EU | 02:35 |
LjL | so my mp3 player can't make that noise, but the metro can | 02:35 |
LjL | it sure gets more ridiculous when criminally loud concerts are made | 02:35 |
LjL | and so many people just don't *know* about tinnitus and they don't realize going to concerts can cause that | 02:36 |
LjL | and then they spend the rest of their life wishing they never went, but there's nothing that undoes it | 02:36 |
LjL | this is something that people should be more proactively informed of | 02:36 |
de-facto | also for me it seemed to correlate with sleep deficit | 02:37 |
LjL | some doctors think deafness will be a "new pandemic" when these people who all went to concerts and listened to loud music with earbuds will get older | 02:37 |
LjL | de-facto, the fleeting tinnitus? the thing that comes for just a few seconds? | 02:37 |
de-facto | nope long term | 02:37 |
LjL | de-facto, ah sorry i missed that line | 02:37 |
DocScrutinizer05 | btw germany had their highest new-cases count in whole pandemia yesterday | 02:38 |
LjL | de-facto, well about blood thinning, i didn't try foods, but i tried... something... right now i forget, but some herb that's supposed to have some of the strongest blood-thinning effects outside of actual drugs | 02:38 |
de-facto | barely had it in the morning but then during day and evening, especially when not sleeping properly | 02:38 |
LjL | DocScrutinizer05, italy too i think :\ | 02:38 |
de-facto | DocScrutinizer05, yeah its quite scary | 02:38 |
LjL | 8800 today, that's definitely higher than anything we had before | 02:38 |
de-facto | we had 6638 yesterday | 02:39 |
LjL | de-facto, i have it a lot when i wake up and when falling asleep. that seems common | 02:39 |
LjL | well, we're the lucky ones | 02:39 |
LjL | france and the UK hover around 20000 | 02:39 |
LjL | and spain hovers around siesta | 02:39 |
LjL | meaning i no longer understand their weekend-less numbers | 02:39 |
de-facto | yeah but spain brought their R down almost to 1 still on high incidence though | 02:40 |
LjL | well that's something at least | 02:40 |
de-facto | in Germany its almost R~1.4 or such | 02:40 |
de-facto | yuck. | 02:40 |
LjL | what did they do though? i have not stayed up to speed on their interventions | 02:40 |
de-facto | good question | 02:40 |
LjL | it would be nice if the bot could give some specific news every time there is a new government intervention somewhere | 02:40 |
LjL | it does give such news, but just taken from random places every time | 02:40 |
LjL | so we don't pay a lot of attention | 02:41 |
LjL | it should have a specific source and make it very visible | 02:41 |
de-facto | i think i remember something about Madrid but that was quite some time ago | 02:41 |
de-facto | like more strict containment efforts | 02:41 |
LjL | well i know Madrid was the worst place both in the first and the second wave | 02:41 |
DocScrutinizer05 | de-facto: 1.4 a 6 days ago, I might think I see it dropping since | 02:41 |
DocScrutinizer05 | 3 days ago (if numbers stabilize) it was around 1.3 | 02:42 |
de-facto | "Visualizing COVID-19's Effective Reproduction Number (Rt)" http://metrics.covid19-analysis.org/ sees it around R~1.4 and may be even on the raise | 02:42 |
de-facto | its getting worse unfortunately | 02:43 |
ryouma | are borders closed? | 02:43 |
de-facto | nope | 02:43 |
de-facto | not even schools or such | 02:43 |
DocScrutinizer05 | well, I've always been quite happy with my own statistics | 02:43 |
de-facto | they want to leave them open as long as possible | 02:43 |
ryouma | is this because they are child care? | 02:44 |
de-facto | with R~1.4 incidence would double every 10.7 days | 02:44 |
de-facto | so when Merkel said we should look in 10 days if containment measures are effective we probably are looking at 10k+ daily new cases | 02:45 |
de-facto | hopefully not though | 02:45 |
LjL | the region of Campania here (where Naples is) decided to close all schools. i think now they'll have a fight against the central government because the central government didn't want them to | 02:45 |
LjL | i think that might be counterproductive | 02:45 |
LjL | instead of settling on closing high schools, which i think is what they should do, now they'll get mad at Campania and refuse to close anything :\ | 02:45 |
LjL | i bet | 02:45 |
LjL | but Campania, althugh i don't like his governor in general, i think he did the thing in the right way | 02:46 |
DocScrutinizer05 | [15 Oct 2020 23:24:47] <DocScrutinizer> ; 3673*(1.32^(13/4)) = 9054.95309021012730458846 | 02:46 |
DocScrutinizer05 | [15 Oct 2020 23:24:47] <DocScrutinizer> ; 3318*(1.42^(16/4)) = 13490.55320928 | 02:46 |
DocScrutinizer05 | [15 Oct 2020 23:27:40] <DocScrutinizer> auf deutsch, wenn es so weitergeht wie am 2020-10-09 dann landen wir in 10 tagen bei 13491, wenn wir 2020-10-12 nehmen dann 9055 | 02:46 |
LjL | he had previously declared that if the cases had become worse than x and y, he would close all schools. and so when it happened, he did | 02:47 |
ryouma | what are those ratios? | 02:47 |
LjL | instead the central government scrambles to have emergency meetings every time | 02:47 |
LjL | they should already have plans. if X happens, do Y immediately | 02:47 |
LjL | it should be automatic, automatic lockdowns of things | 02:47 |
LjL | not literally automatic, just you know. without emergency meetings needed | 02:47 |
LjL | %tr <de auf deutsch, wenn es so weitergeht wie am 2020-10-09 dann landen wir in 10 tagen bei 13491, wenn wir 2020-10-12 nehmen dann 9055 | 02:48 |
Brainstorm | LjL, German to English: on german, if it continues as it continues on 2020-10-09 then we will end up in 10 days at 13491, if we take 2020-10-12 then 9055 (MyMemory) — in German, if things continue like 2020-10-09 then we will land in 10 days at 13491, if we take 2020-10-12 then 9055 (Google) [... want %more?] | 02:48 |
ryouma | what are the 16/4 and 13/4 | 02:48 |
de-facto | ryouma, n(t) = n(0) R^(t/t_serial), so how many serial times it reproduced | 02:48 |
ryouma | so to convert r to doubling time you do what? | 02:50 |
de-facto | solving for R in R^(t_double/t_serial) = 2 | 02:51 |
LjL | i search for an epidemiology package in pypi.org | 02:51 |
de-facto | e.g. t_double = t_serial Log[2]/Log[R] | 02:51 |
Brainstorm | Updates for France: +5346 cases (now 815030) since 7 hours ago — US: +3782 cases (now 8.2 million), +30 deaths (now 222712) since 2 hours ago — Canada: +177 cases (now 192410) since 2 hours ago — Netherlands: +14 deaths (now 6706) since 12 hours ago | 02:52 |
de-facto | LjL maybe there is something like https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/EpiEstim/index.html for python too? | 02:53 |
ryouma | 17:44 <de-facto> with R~1.4 incidence would double every 10.7 days | 02:54 |
LjL | i'll search for it if you give me a good use case to have on the bot! | 02:54 |
de-facto | but thats only for R | 02:54 |
de-facto | and estimating reproduction numbers | 02:54 |
de-facto | so it depends on what you want to do of course | 02:54 |
DocScrutinizer05 | ryouma: 15 days / series-length of R_eff | 02:54 |
DocScrutinizer05 | 15* | 02:54 |
DocScrutinizer05 | damn! 16 and 13 | 02:55 |
DocScrutinizer05 | of a date 6 or 3 days in the past, to calculate a value 10 days into the future | 02:55 |
de-facto | ryouma, t_double = t_serial Log[2]/Log[R] = 5.2 Log[2] / Log[1.4] = 5.2 2.06 = 10.71 | 02:55 |
LjL | de-facto, i don't know, i guess estimates of R and doubling times would be nice, but i'm not sure i want to duplicate work offloop already does | 02:55 |
de-facto | that Rt website got its sources on https://github.com/lin-lab/?q=COVID | 02:57 |
ryouma | ok this perhaps (/ 5.2 (log 1.4 2)) | 02:57 |
ryouma | then you pluge whateve in for 1.4 | 02:57 |
de-facto | yeah i assumed t_serial ~ 5.2 others may use t_serial ~ 4 | 02:58 |
de-facto | i think rki also uses 4 days | 02:58 |
de-facto | with t_serial = 4 it would give t_double = 8.24 days for R=1.4 | 02:59 |
de-facto | so even less | 02:59 |
LjL | t_serial is the time between me getting it, and me giving it to you? | 03:00 |
de-facto | yeah pretty much | 03:01 |
de-facto | its the average duration for the next (consecutive) generation in an infection chain | 03:01 |
ryouma | (progn (cl-defun my-doubling (rt &optional (t-serial 4)) (/ t-serial (log rt 2))) (my-doubling 1.4)) => 8 | 03:01 |
ryouma | (my-doubling 1.4 5.2) => 10 | 03:02 |
de-facto | hehe nice is that lisp? :) | 03:02 |
ryouma | yes | 03:02 |
de-facto | neat :D | 03:02 |
ryouma | my irc client is in lisp so i just did it on the fly | 03:03 |
ryouma | i rounded | 03:04 |
ryouma | doubling time is more intuitive to me with the state 0f my brain | 03:05 |
de-facto | this would be doubling time for incidence e.g. daily new infections | 03:06 |
ryouma | right what you really want is probability of being infected if you go into the community. i don't know what to do to get that. | 03:07 |
DocScrutinizer05 | LjL: t_serial is the time between donor sneezing and victim sneezing. for "sneezing" insert any other timestamp relative to the infection episode | 03:07 |
ryouma | transmission time to next gen transmission time? | 03:08 |
DocScrutinizer05 | for example | 03:09 |
de-facto | yeah but in practice they may take the average time between onset of symptoms for two consecutive generations | 03:09 |
de-facto | transmission times often are unknown | 03:09 |
de-facto | that may lead to anecdotal events with negative serial time when the infected becomes symptomatic before the original carrier | 03:10 |
de-facto | but on average it would be like 4 to 5 days or such | 03:11 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Justin Trudeau: Canada-US border will stay closed until America gets COVID-19 under control → https://is.gd/nMJwyS | 03:11 |
de-facto | %title https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-020-0869-5 | 03:11 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From doi.org: Temporal dynamics in viral shedding and transmissibility of COVID-19 | Nature Medicine | 03:11 |
ryouma | probability of infection if you go to a hypothetical typical place in germany then is probability of infection during event you go to, times proportion of contagious cases in population, or something like htat? | 03:12 |
LjL | <CarlSagan> [NYT - Science] Remdesivir Fails to Prevent Covid-19 Deaths in Huge Trial https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/15/health/coronavirus-remdesivir-who.html 2020-10-16T00:39:14 | 03:13 |
ryouma | so you need to know those two numbers | 03:13 |
LjL | i think Brainstorm posted something about this earlier, it didn't say "huge trial" though | 03:13 |
de-facto | %title https://www.microcovid.org/ | 03:15 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.microcovid.org: microCOVID Project | 03:15 |
de-facto | ryouma, ^^ | 03:15 |
ryouma | oh right i saw that. i was trying to figure out if you could calculate it yourself from available numbers | 03:16 |
ryouma | in a much simipler model | 03:16 |
de-facto | "We reviewed published research about COVID, and used it to make rough estimates about the risk level of various activities in microCOVIDs. 1 microCOVID is a one-in-a-million chance of getting COVID." | 03:16 |
de-facto | for me it sounds a bit like microSievert the unit for radiaton exposure | 03:18 |
de-facto | like such and such action is equivalent to X microCOVID :) | 03:18 |
de-facto | going grocery shopping for 60min would be 20 µCOVIDs for me here | 03:24 |
ryouma | so germany is currently better than az but is getting worse fast. this assume prevalence is hte key number. (Reported prevalence: 0.02% Adjusted prevalence: 0.21%) vs. (Reported prevalence: 0.06% Adjusted prevalence: 0.57%). but idk if that is correct and idk what is used to adjust prevalence. something to do with testing i presume. | 03:24 |
de-facto | yes its getting worse fast and current numbers are describing a state ~10 days in the past | 03:24 |
de-facto | so real incidence already may be double of current reported | 03:25 |
LjL | i like the past | 03:25 |
ryouma | so within 10d you could be worse than az | 03:25 |
de-facto | solving for t in 13.2 1.15^(t/5.2) == 8.63 1.4^(t/5.2) gives me 11.23 days | 03:30 |
de-facto | that would be arizona having 13.2 / 100k with R=1.15 and Germany 8.63 / 100k with R=1.4 | 03:30 |
de-facto | so yeah pretty much in 10 days it may be crossing AZ if things progress like that | 03:31 |
de-facto | hard to tell how R will develop | 03:32 |
ryouma | the math makes my brain go haywire so i just figured germany prevalence was 1/3 of az so you have to double twice thus 20d from 10d ago | 03:32 |
ryouma | shortcut | 03:33 |
ryouma | is prevalence basically probability that somebody is contagious? | 03:33 |
ryouma | i mean frequency | 03:34 |
de-facto | yeah i guess so | 03:34 |
de-facto | depends on what you use it, if you have X active cases per 100k citizens it would give you an probability to meet such an active case each 100k/X contacts | 03:35 |
ryouma | those are both extremely high numbers already. i didn't realize it was that high. | 03:35 |
de-facto | yeah its really bad in EU right now | 03:35 |
ryouma | yes that is what i intended except that i don't care if you meet an active but not contagious case | 03:36 |
de-facto | yeah well but that would be a constant factor then, e.g. an active case only being contagious for e.g 50% of the time counted as active case (arbitrary number for example) | 03:37 |
de-facto | probably one can just "pile up" active case time windows with a daily source of current incidence and a daily sink of current recoveries per day | 03:39 |
de-facto | then count how many of those time windows currently are "active" as in piled up and have the active cases | 03:40 |
DocScrutinizer05 | is there such a thing like active non-contagious ? when does "active" end then? | 03:44 |
de-facto | i think when not converted into severe or fatal case in time and tested negative | 03:47 |
de-facto | not sure though | 03:47 |
DocScrutinizer05 | is the guy still suffering breating-insufficiency and loss of tasting 6 months after infection still active? | 03:47 |
DocScrutinizer05 | I'm pretty sure at least in germany there is _no_ reporting of recoveries whatsoever | 03:48 |
DocScrutinizer05 | and published numbers of "recoveries" are synthesized derivatives | 03:48 |
de-facto | well but there isolation requirements that may include some safety margin | 03:49 |
DocScrutinizer05 | I'd guess that doesn't substantially differ from the situation in any arbitrary other place | 03:49 |
de-facto | yeah probably not | 03:50 |
ryouma | what units is prevalence in | 03:51 |
de-facto | cases per citizens? | 03:51 |
de-facto | so its a number | 03:51 |
ryouma | germany is 0.02 cases per citizen? | 03:51 |
ryouma | thus 2% of germany is cases? | 03:51 |
ryouma | %germany | 03:51 |
ryouma | %cases germany | 03:52 |
Brainstorm | ryouma: In Germany, there have been 348816 confirmed cases (0.4% of the population) and 9810 deaths (2.8% of cases) as of 4 hours ago. 19.3 million tests were performed (1.8% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.7% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 3.3% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Germany for time series data. | 03:52 |
ryouma | that does not match | 03:52 |
ryouma | 0.004 cases per citizen have existed | 03:52 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Polling indicates growing public understanding about importance of using health and care data (81 votes) | https://www.gov.uk/government/news/polling-indicates-growing-public-understanding-about-importance-of-using-health-and-care-data | https://redd.it/jbrbty | 03:54 |
ryouma | there was a very obvious percent sign in the microcovid site that i missed | 03:55 |
de-facto | Germany currently has ~ 54 400 active cases distributing (unequally) on ~83 000 000 citizens, hence it would have a prevalence of 655 ppm for active cases e.g. 655 active cases per 1M citizen | 03:55 |
de-facto | so about one on 1527 citizens | 03:56 |
ryouma | (/ 54.4 83e3) 0.0006554216867469879 per citizen | 03:58 |
ryouma | 0.0021 prevalence per citizen reported | 03:59 |
de-facto | yeah if it was prevalence of detected cases since begin it would be more like 348816/83M = 0,0042, seroprevalence probably around 5-10x of that (as in undetected cases) | 03:59 |
ryouma | adjusted | 03:59 |
ryouma | thus the reported prevalence isn't the same number as the active cases you are reporting (Reported prevalence: 0.02% Adjusted prevalence: 0.21%) | 04:00 |
ryouma | unless it's time delayed or somehting | 04:01 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: Chris Christie says he was in ICU for 7 days battling Covid-19, urges Americans to wear masks (10251 votes) | https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/chris-christie-says-he-was-icu-7-days-battling-covid-n1243589 | https://redd.it/jby6x8 | 04:02 |
de-facto | active cases is an estimate like active = sum(detected) - sum(recovered) since begin of pandemic where recovered is probably an estimate by RKI or such | 04:02 |
de-facto | %title https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0225838#pone.0225838.ref009 | 04:07 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From journals.plos.org: A Bayesian Monte Carlo approach for predicting the spread of infectious diseases | 04:07 |
de-facto | DocScrutinizer05, neat website employing this model for prediction of incidence per region for Germany https://covid19-bayesian.fz-juelich.de/ | 04:08 |
de-facto | they have the super computer resources to run such models | 04:09 |
DocScrutinizer05 | nice. | 04:31 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Belgium: +10448 cases (now 191959), +49 deaths (now 10327) since 23 hours ago — France: +7655 cases (now 822685) since an hour ago — US: +1116 cases (now 8.2 million), +5 deaths (now 222717) since an hour ago — Netherlands: +958 cases (now 204912), +7 deaths (now 6713) since an hour ago | 04:35 |
de-facto | wow Belgium is crazy | 04:35 |
de-facto | that would be equivalent to ~75500 cases in Germany | 04:38 |
de-facto | i really hope they get it contained again | 04:42 |
de-facto | %title https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-belgium-idUSKBN26Z24E | 05:02 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.reuters.com: Belgium fears ICU beds may run out as COVID cases soar | Reuters | 05:02 |
de-facto | .( | 05:03 |
de-facto | "The federal government will meet on Oct. 16 to decide on additional restrictive measures." | 05:06 |
de-facto | hopefully they can do something about it | 05:06 |
de-facto | Damn +7334 for Germany today, thats beyond all time record | 05:19 |
de-facto | 9.5% increase in new cases relative to yesterday | 05:20 |
de-facto | so really about to double in 10 days | 05:20 |
DocScrutinizer05 | de-facto: new all time record after spring was yesterday | 05:23 |
de-facto | yeah and today | 05:24 |
DocScrutinizer05 | day to day ratios tell nothing really | 05:24 |
de-facto | (7334-6638)/6638 ~ 10.5% | 05:24 |
DocScrutinizer05 | but 10% is within range of real average R_eff | 05:25 |
DocScrutinizer05 | happens to be | 05:25 |
DocScrutinizer05 | from today to tomorrow you'll see even a drop I guess | 05:25 |
de-facto | R^(1/4) = 1.1 would be R=1.46 or R^(1/5.2) = 1.1 would be R=1.64 | 05:28 |
DocScrutinizer05 | day to day ratios tell nothing really | 05:28 |
DocScrutinizer05 | all you get from that is excitement about random noise | 05:30 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Physical Activity Decreases the Prevalence of COVID-19-associated Hospitalization: Brazil EXTRA Study (82 votes) | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.14.20212704v1 | https://redd.it/jbm0yt | 05:30 |
de-facto | 6th Sept smoothed cases n(0) ~ 1281, 34 days later on 10th Oct n(34) ~ 3976, so R = (3976/1281)^(5.2/34) = 1.19 or R = (3976/1281)^(4/34) = 1.14 on average but it seems its an increaseing R=1.04 to R=1.27 so a current value of R=1.4 seems plausible | 05:40 |
de-facto | At begin of Sept it was around R=1 (a little plateau), then continuously increased ever since | 05:42 |
DocScrutinizer05 | well, my statistics look a tiny bit different but similar http://reisenweber.net/et_al/covid/covid19_statistics.htm | 05:44 |
DocScrutinizer05 | I'm eagerly waiting for new data to see if the extremum in R_eff at 2020-10-09 solidifies | 05:46 |
de-facto | btw i think i have to correct my statement about all time high, the 7334 cases distribute over the very last few days, so it cant be compared to the all time high in the first wave for a single day of 6554 | 05:49 |
de-facto | DocScrutinizer05, may i write you a private message? | 05:52 |
DocScrutinizer05 | sure | 05:54 |
Brainstorm | New from EurekAlert!: COVID: women are less likely to put themselves in danger: Women's attitudes and behaviors may have contributed to their reduced vulnerability and mortality. A survey conducted in 8 OECD countries shows that they consider the Coronavirus a more serious problem than men, are more likely to approve health policies and less likely to [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/Hgk94q | 06:30 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Repurposed antiviral drugs for COVID-19; interim WHO SOLIDARITY trial results (81 votes) | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.15.20209817v1 | https://redd.it/jbx579 | 07:03 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Lombardy, Italy: +2067 cases (now 118711), +26 deaths (now 17037) since a day ago — France: +7656 cases (now 830341), +11 deaths (now 33136) since 2 hours ago — Netherlands: +1965 cases (now 206877), +8 deaths (now 6721) since 2 hours ago — United Kingdom: +1417 cases (now 675039) since 13 hours ago | 07:21 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: An experimental trial of recombinant human interferon alpha nasal drops to prevent coronavirus disease 2019 in medical staff in an epidemic area (82 votes) | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.11.20061473v2 | https://redd.it/jbuixy | 07:33 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Europe Surpasses U.S. In Covid-19 Cases Per Capita w/ 2nd Wave, Epidemiologists Warning U.S. of 3rd Wave. → https://is.gd/RMmqXO | 08:11 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Life-style: Matters of the Mind: Pandemic 2020, a truly life-changing experience → https://is.gd/5OIzsO | 08:22 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Preliminary results find COVID-19 vaccine candidate based on inactivated SARS-CoV-2 virus is safe: A Chinese COVID-19 vaccine candidate based on the inactivated whole SARS-CoV-2 virus (BBIBP-CorV) is safe and elicits an antibody response, findings from a small early-phase randomised clinical trial published today in The Lancet [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/EbpX6F | 09:41 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Storms, covid raise fear of worst North Korea famine since 1990s → https://is.gd/TR8Swz | 09:52 |
Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: (news): Coronavirus testing lab 'chaotic and dangerous', scientist claims → https://is.gd/C6SpkO | 10:36 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Last night out for French cities ahead of virus curfew: Millions of French people prepared Friday to enjoy a last night of freedom before a COVID-19 curfew in Paris and other large cities, after officials warned that new efforts were needed to curb an alarming surge in new cases. → https://is.gd/k39ZXt | 10:48 |
Brainstorm | Updates for US: +591 cases (now 8.2 million), +10 deaths (now 222727) since 6 hours ago | 10:52 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: US election wrap, October 16: Trump, Biden clash on covid response in separate town halls → https://is.gd/f37MXr | 10:58 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Aussies eye end to lockdown as virus numbers tumble: Australians living under lockdown in the southeast of the country are eyeing a return of freedoms this weekend as coronavirus numbers reached a four-month low Friday. → https://is.gd/oFMysk | 11:09 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Denmark to kill over 1 million mink to check Covid-19 spread → https://is.gd/WW6Yia | 11:20 |
Brainstorm | Updates for US: +2182 cases (now 8.2 million), +27 deaths (now 222754) since 33 minutes ago | 11:22 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: 'Sweet 16' party becomes 'superspreader' event in New York: A 16th birthday party in New York state became a super-spreader event with dozens of attendees contracting coronavirus, according to officials. → https://is.gd/Y2oTRs | 11:32 |
Brainstorm | New from ProPublica: Pennsylvania’s Rejection of 372,000 Ballot Applications Bewilders Voters and Strains Election Staff: by Ryan McCarthy and Derek Willis , ProPublica, and Jonathan Lai , The Philadelphia Inquirer ProPublica is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power. Sign up to receive our biggest stories as soon as they’re [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/XlfQrV | 11:54 |
Brainstorm | New from BMJ: Covid-19: Experts recommend two week circuit break to reduce transmission in the UK: A two week lockdown in the UK could “put the epidemic back by around 28 days or more,” the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) has said.Documents published this week1 show... → https://is.gd/YtEMbh | 12:16 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Switzerland: +3105 cases (now 74422), +5 deaths (now 2120) since 17 hours ago | 12:37 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Remdesivir has 'little or no effect' on Covid-19 mortality: WHO study: The antiviral drug remdesivir, considered one of the most promising Covid-19 treatments, turns out to do little to prevent deaths from the disease, according to a WHO-backed study. → https://is.gd/wNbW5z | 12:38 |
Brainstorm | Updates for US: +35 cases (now 8.2 million) since an hour ago | 12:52 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: SARS-CoV-2 triggers inflammatory responses and cell death through caspase-8 activation (82 votes) | https://www.nature.com/articles/s41392-020-00334-0 | https://redd.it/jc489w | 13:09 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Pfizer sees emergency use filing for Covid-19 vaccine after US election → https://is.gd/g9A4jv | 13:33 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Imposing coronavirus lockdown unconstitutional: Trump → https://is.gd/FipWWV | 13:55 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: 5 things to know before the stock market opens Friday: U.S. stock futures rose Friday, with Pfizer up after saying it could apply for FDA emergency use authorization for its Covid-19 vaccine candidate in late November. → https://is.gd/G9OTY2 | 14:06 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: China rapidly expands use of experimental COVID-19 vaccines → https://is.gd/pMzIWW | 14:17 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Around a third of infants with COVID-19 may have caught it from mother: Environmental exposure to SARS-CoV-2 was responsible for the majority of infections detected in newborn infants in an analysis of 176 reported cases. However, the findings, published in Nature Communications, suggest that 30% of the reported cases may have [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/XM8LAL | 14:28 |
Haley[m] | %cases usa | 14:33 |
Brainstorm | Haley[m]: In US, there have been 8.2 million confirmed cases (2.5% of the population) and 222781 deaths (2.7% of cases) as of 16 minutes ago. 122.6 million tests were performed (6.7% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.0% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 4.0% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data. | 14:33 |
Haley[m] | %cases world | 14:34 |
Brainstorm | Haley[m]: In World, there have been 39.4 million confirmed cases (0.5% of the population) and 1.1 million deaths (2.8% of cases) as of 17 minutes ago. 728.0 million tests were performed (5.4% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.3% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 3.7% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=World for time series data. | 14:34 |
Haley[m] | %cases france | 14:34 |
Brainstorm | Haley[m]: In France, there have been 818707 confirmed cases (1.2% of the population) and 33125 deaths (4.0% of cases) as of 7 hours ago. 12.7 million tests were performed (6.4% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=France for time series data. | 14:34 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Netherlands: +5061 cases (now 211938) since 7 hours ago — US: +708 cases (now 8.2 million), +27 deaths (now 222781) since an hour ago | 14:37 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: 5 things to know before the stock market opens Friday: U.S. stock futures rose Friday, with Pfizer up after saying it could apply for FDA emergency use authorization for its Covid-19 vaccine candidate in late November. → https://is.gd/G9OTY2 | 14:39 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: WHO says lockdowns should be short and sharp—here are 4 other essential COVID-19 strategies: Last week the World Health Organization's special envoy on COVID-19, David Nabarro, said: "We in the World Health Organization do not advocate lockdowns as the primary measure for the control of the virus." → https://is.gd/FXUMYA | 15:01 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Pfizer plans to seek authorization for Covid-19 vaccine in November: company: US pharmaceutical giant Pfizer expects to file for emergency use authorization for its COVID-19 vaccine in late November, around two weeks after the November 3 US presidential election, it said Friday. → https://is.gd/79OzVl | 15:12 |
Brainstorm | Updates for US: +2540 cases (now 8.2 million), +50 deaths (now 222831) since 55 minutes ago | 15:23 |
Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Pfizer won’t apply for Covid-19 vaccine authorization before mid-November, CEO confirms: Pfizer estimates it won't have the safety data that the FDA requires for emergency use authorization of a #Covid19 vaccine until the third week of November. → https://is.gd/5cN8wC | 15:23 |
Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Coronavirus infections still rising rapidly: The R number has crept up to 1.3-1.5, with growth of the epidemic still widespread. → https://is.gd/WWn3VG | 15:35 |
Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Pharma: STAT Plus: Pharmalittle: Study finds remdesivir fails to prevent Covid-19 deaths; Trump’s $200 discount drug cards hit snags → https://is.gd/sK7Cvp | 15:46 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Post - October 16 | Questions, images, videos, comments, unconfirmed reports, theories, suggestions → https://is.gd/bR9RD2 | 15:57 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: A genetic variation could help explain the high rate of COVID-19 among African Americans: VCU Massey Cancer Center Director Robert Winn, M.D., recently collaborated on research that identified a genetic factor that could partly account for the high prevalence of COVID-19 in African Americans. The study, published in the Journal [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/q8esdB | 16:08 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: In recovering COVID-19 patients, antibodies fade quickly: In the absence of approved, effective treatments for COVID-19, some hospitals have been treating patients with severe COVID symptoms with blood plasma from recovering patients. The blood of recovered patients contains antibodies that act against the coronavirus. While [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/ewyMON | 16:19 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: States face Friday deadline from CDC to submit plans to distribute coronavirus vaccine: States have about two weeks to set up coronavirus vaccine distribution centers across the country to meet the Nov. 1 deadline set by the CDC — a monumental undertaking made even more difficult by the fact that a vaccine hasn't been cleared. → https://is.gd/3COEQY | 16:30 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: COVID-19: Weekly infections explode in Europe: The number of coronavirus infections has continued to explode over the past week in Europe, but has declined in Latin America, the Middle East and Asia. → https://is.gd/lWrKNe | 16:41 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Ivermectin: an award-winning drug with expected antiviral activity against COVID-19 (82 votes) | https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168365920305800?via%3Dihub | https://redd.it/jc4aty | 16:48 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: NIH begins large clinical trial to test immune modulators for treatment of COVID-19: The National Institutes of Health has launched an adaptive Phase 3 clinical trial to evaluate the safety and efficacy of three immune modulator drugs in hospitalized adults with COVID-19. Some COVID-19 patients experience an immune response in [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/WbnPG4 | 16:52 |
Brainstorm | New from WebMD: Chinese COVID Vaccine Shows Promise in Early Trial: By the 42nd day after vaccination, all had antibody responses to the virus, according to researchers. → https://is.gd/aIzr5E | 17:03 |
Brainstorm | Updates for US: +5630 cases (now 8.2 million), +104 deaths (now 222935) since an hour ago | 17:08 |
Brainstorm | Updates for US: +864 cases (now 8.2 million), +18 deaths (now 222953) since 19 minutes ago | 17:23 |
metreo | https://www.virology.ws/2020/10/15/we-missed-sars-cov-2-what-other-viruses-are-we-ignoring/ | 17:26 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: An Open Letter from Pfizer Chairman and CEO Albert Bourla (83 votes) | https://www.pfizer.com/news/hot-topics/an_open_letter_from_pfizer_chairman_and_ceo_albert_bourla | https://redd.it/jca4pg | 17:29 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Italy: +10009 cases (now 391611), +55 deaths (now 36427) since a day ago — United Kingdom: +14218 cases (now 689257) since 10 hours ago — Canada: +599 cases (now 193497) since 10 hours ago | 17:38 |
LjL | My sister went to the hospital for a hearing check. There was just one entrance for getting appointments, checking in, and... getting tested for COVID | 17:40 |
Brainstorm | New from In The Pipeline: The SOLIDARITY Data: OK, we have some more to think about this morning. The large SOLIDARITY trial from the WHO has reported more interim data on its investigation into repurposed drugs for the coronavirus pandemic. And some of this we already knew, but some of it’s a real surprise. One drug reported on is [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/snSUgE | 17:48 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Belgian university trials saliva tests to track coronavirus spread: At the university of Liege in Belgium, a steady stream of students pick up saliva tests in white boxes from a desk at the entrance of the main building, a scheme creators hope will simplify tracking the spread of the coronavirus. → https://is.gd/mOOZy6 | 17:59 |
LjL | +1320 today in just Milan | 18:02 |
Brainstorm | Updates for US: +1685 cases (now 8.2 million), +28 deaths (now 222981) since 50 minutes ago | 18:09 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 described in 25-year-old: (HealthDay)—A case of reinfection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is described in a study published online Oct. 12 in The Lancet Infectious Diseases. → https://is.gd/QQhYVF | 18:21 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: These cities are among most vulnerable in US to COVID-19 mental health consequences, report suggests: Camden, N.J.; Allentown, Pa.; and Reading, Pa., have been identified as cities where COVID-19 vulnerability and poor mental health overlap, according to a new report published this month by Mental Health America and the Surgo [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/dVpzCb | 18:32 |
metreo | LjL, we had outdoor testing and drive through for most of the summer, that changes now that winter is coming | 18:40 |
metreo | when I got testing last spring I was able to book an appointment which cut standing around waiting but that's changed a lot since then | 18:41 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Global daily virus cases top 400,000: More than 400,000 new coronavirus infections were declared across the world on Thursday, a record number, according to a tally by AFP on Friday based on data from health authorities. → https://is.gd/16uBQJ | 18:43 |
IndoAnon | LjL: wtf man, 10K cases | 18:44 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: States face Friday deadline from CDC to submit plans to distribute coronavirus vaccine: States have about two weeks to set up coronavirus vaccine distribution centers across the country to meet the Nov. 1 deadline set by the CDC — a monumental undertaking made even more difficult by the fact that a vaccine hasn't been cleared. → https://is.gd/3COEQY | 18:54 |
Brainstorm | New from WebMD: No Pfizer Coronavirus Vaccine Before Election: Even though Pfizer could have preliminary data about the vaccine's effectiveness by the end of October, gathering safety and manufacturing data would take until at least the third week of November, Dr. Albert Bourla said in the statement. → https://is.gd/JcFQJS | 19:16 |
Brainstorm | Updates for US: +4586 cases (now 8.2 million), +64 deaths (now 223045) since an hour ago — Canada: +107 cases (now 193604), +10 deaths (now 9731) since an hour ago | 19:24 |
Brainstorm | New from Scientific American: Don't Expect a COVID Vaccine before the Election: Health worker injects a person during clinical trials for a COVID-19 vaccine at Research Centers of America in Hollywood, Fla., on September 9, 2020. Drugmakers racing to produce COVID-19 vaccines pledged to avoid shortcuts on science as they face pressure to rush a shot to market. → https://is.gd/0h8lwj | 19:39 |
Brainstorm | New from Scientific American: Coronavirus Drug Remdesivir Shortens Recovery, But Is Not a Magic Bullet: Medical staff push a patient on a gurney to a waiting medical helicopter at the Emile Muller hospital in Mulhouse, eastern France, to be evacuated on another hospital on March 17, 2020, amid the outbreak of the new Coronavirus, COVID-19. → https://is.gd/EMyuse | 19:50 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Spain: +9765 cases (now 982723), +222 deaths (now 33775) since a day ago — France: +4429 cases (now 834770), +122 deaths (now 33247) since 12 hours ago | 19:52 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: States face Friday deadline from CDC to submit plans to distribute coronavirus vaccine: States have about two weeks to set up coronavirus vaccine distribution centers across the country to meet the Nov. 1 deadline set by the CDC — a monumental undertaking made even more difficult by the fact that a vaccine hasn't been cleared. → https://is.gd/3COEQY | 20:01 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: The U.S. was the world's best prepared nation to confront a pandemic. How did it spiral to 'almost inconceivable' failure? (10093 votes) | https://www.jsonline.com/in-depth/news/2020/10/14/america-had-worlds-best-pandemic-response-plan-playbook-why-did-fail-coronavirus-covid-19-timeline/3587922001/ | https://redd.it/jc7h2n | 20:07 |
Brainstorm | Updates for US: +10818 cases (now 8.2 million), +110 deaths (now 223155) since 48 minutes ago — Arizona, US: +738 cases (now 229486), +17 deaths (now 5806) since a day ago — Canada: +592 cases (now 194196) since 47 minutes ago — Switzerland: +2 deaths (now 2122) since 7 hours ago | 20:07 |
Brainstorm | Updates for US: +4527 cases (now 8.3 million), +29 deaths (now 223184) since 18 minutes ago | 20:22 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Fastest-ever growth in global virus cases as Europe tightens screws: Fresh restrictions loomed for millions of Europeans at the weekend after the highest-ever worldwide number of coronavirus infections in a single day, while pharma giant Pfizer said Friday it could apply for emergency US authorisation for its vaccine next month. → https://is.gd/zWDUBP | 20:23 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: US hoping for two Covid-19 vaccines by end of November: Two American companies expect to apply for emergency approval for their COVID-19 vaccines by late November, welcome news as the US hits a third surge of its coronavirus epidemic and approaches its eight millionth case. → https://is.gd/C4g1QB | 20:34 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Trump administration announces deal with CVS and Walgreens to administer coronavirus vaccine to seniors in long-term care → https://is.gd/SIW6G7 | 20:56 |
Brainstorm | New paper: | 21:53 |
Brainstorm | Updates for US: +16403 cases (now 8.3 million), +175 deaths (now 223359) since an hour ago | 21:53 |
Brainstorm | New paper: | 21:58 |
tinwhiskers | another preprint | 21:59 |
Brainstorm | New from PLOS ONE: Impact of truck contamination and information sharing on foot-and-mouth disease spreading in beef cattle production systems: by Qihui Yang, Don M. Gruenbacher, Jessica L. Heier Stamm, David E. Amrine, Gary L. Brase, Scott A. DeLoach, Caterina M. Scoglio As cattle movement data in the United States are scarce due to the absence of [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/YIVJPS | 22:03 |
Brainstorm | New paper: | 22:03 |
Brainstorm | New paper: | 22:08 |
Brainstorm | New paper: | 22:13 |
Brainstorm | New paper: | 22:18 |
tinwhiskers | it's good to see we're starting to get consistent results from recent publications. This should help reduce the confusion people seem to have over what is "true". | 22:20 |
Brainstorm | New paper: | 22:23 |
Brainstorm | Updates for US: +2313 cases (now 8.3 million), +56 deaths (now 223415) since 34 minutes ago — France: +56 deaths (now 33303) since 2 hours ago | 22:23 |
Brainstorm | New paper: | 22:28 |
Brainstorm | New paper: | 22:33 |
tinwhiskers | LjL: ^ | 22:36 |
LjL | whoopsies | 22:36 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Trump administration announces deal with CVS and Walgreens to administer coronavirus vaccine to seniors in long-term care → https://is.gd/SIW6G7 | 23:11 |
Brainstorm | Updates for US: +3993 cases (now 8.3 million), +43 deaths (now 223458) since an hour ago — Canada: +108 cases (now 194304) since 3 hours ago | 23:23 |
Brainstorm | Updates for US: +3622 cases (now 8.3 million), +87 deaths (now 223545) since 35 minutes ago | 23:54 |
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